Random thoughts from a contentious offseason (I can only imagine what it's been like in Boston). Some of these have been touched on in separate posts, or warrant that separate posts address them, but in any case here they are...

The Phillies and Postseason Success

Lofty expectations and the disappointment of the 2011 NLDS have caused a portion of the fanbase (maybe even the majority) to view the current team as failures in the postseason.

Some of that is simply a recency effect -- if they had reached the World Series in 2011 instead of 2009, for example, I think the reaction would have been very different.

But it's worth reviewing how the Phillies' current playoff run over the past five years compares to other teams' last five playoff appearances...

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The June 14 baseball game against the Marlins had all the elements that make up an entertaining game. A lopsided score. A home run extravaganza. Great pitching. An opponent that was mired in a slump so horrible and so long that it had gone from funny to sad and all the way back around to funny again. It was a great game. But those elements alone weren't enough to get it on this list. One thing -- or two, actually -- elevated it from "great" to "best."

Let me back up. Cole Hamels was trying to get to nine wins, a mark only two other pitchers had reached to that point. The poor Marlins had lost 10 of 11 games on their just completed home stand. Chris Volstad, perpetual Phillies punching bag, was on the mound for the Marlins. Just how badly did the Phillies beat up on Volstad in 2010? Over his four starts against the Phillies he pitched 21 innings and racked up a 6.43 ERA -- 15 hits and five home runs. What I'm saying is that Volstad wasn't going to be the one to lead the Marlins out of their tragically hilarious (hilariously tragic?) slump. At least not that night.

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Nobody reading this needs to be reminded of what a pleasant surprise John Mayberry Jr. was in 2011. He had a great year, which went something like this: After reportedly showing up in Clearwater in great shape, Mayberry had a strong spring training, going 20 for 68 with 5 HR, 6 BB, 12 K, and 4/4 SB, earning himself a bench spot on the Opening Day roster. Then on Opening Day itself, he came up with a game-winning walk-off RBI pinch single. He stayed hot through April but then started to struggle in May, especially after being forced into the starting lineup for 18 games (68 PA) beginning on May 15 due to a Shane Victorino injury (.194/.265/.323). When Victorino returned, Mayberry was optioned to Lehigh Valley. But then he returned on July 5 and went buck wild as a part-time starter for the rest of the season. His wRC+s for July, August, and September were 158, 175, and 146, respectively. In total, he hit 12 HR and .301/.358/.607 over his last 179 PA and ended the season with 2.5 fWAR in only 296 PA.

It was tremendous, and he deserves a lot of praise for it. But that doesn't mean he'll be able to repeat it over a full season in 2012 -- or ever. Mayberry was 27 in 2011 and it's common for players to get a lot better around that age. But the degree to which Mayberry appeared to improve last year has got to raise a healthy amount of suspicion that maybe what we saw was too good to be true. While Mayberry was once a first-round draft pick and therefore isn't completely without a prospect pedigree, he was a pretty pedestrian hitter for his entire career prior to 2011, and that isn't something we can just throw out the window just because of one season of great stats in part-time duty. And especially since in Mayberry's case, he didn't even really put up one season of great stats -- he really only put up three months of super-awesome stats. Below the jump is a chart (italicized numbers are back-of-the-envelope ballpark estimates).

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