The finale of this entertaining four-game set in Phoenix comes this afternoon, as Diamondbacks ace Brandon Webb faces the Phillies' Brett Myers. If the Phils are to leave Arizona with a series win, they'll have to snap a streak of nine straight victorious starts by Webb, including seven this season. He does not, however, have great career numbers against Philadelphia: 2-3, 3.99 in eight career starts. Myers, who took a no-decision after a seven-inning, ten-strikeout performance on Saturday, is 2-1, 3.00 in five games against the D'backs, including four starts.

The Phils and Diamondbacks go at it again in the desert--relatively speaking, I mean-- this evening. Slugging pitcher Micah Owings takes the hill for host Arizona, Kyle Kendrick for the Phils. 

The old unit might be more like it.

If you were Ruben Amaro Jr., would (that is, should) you sign a league-average pitcher to a multi-year deal for 2009+?  And would it make a difference if that pitcher was currently 45 years old?  

Moyer is, so far this year, almost the definition of a league-average pitcher.  His ERA is 4.15 in a league with a 4.34 average; his WHIP is 1.59.  He's throw at least 199 innings in each of the last seven seasons.  Watching him last night, I found myself appreciating how slender and flexible he is - I hope to match that when I'm 45 - and admiring his approach at the plate.  Set aside his two hits, although they were pretty tasty; focus on that bunt.  How rare is it to see a Phillies pitcher who regularly lays down good bunts? 

Anyway, the point is, he looks like he could keep this up for another three or four years.  Throwing that 76-MPH slop up there can't be taxing his arm too much.  The guy I saw last night looked like a good candidate to be throwing 175+ innings of league-average ball in 2010.

So, how crazy would it be to offer a multi-year deal to a guy who'd be 46 in the first year?  That's insane, right - baseball malpractice?  I'm just posting this here because I caught myself thinking that it might not be insane, and that we could actually regret <i>not</i> resigning Moyer next year, a la Lohse.

To make the obvious joke: one guy throws 98, the other guy is 98. Jamie Moyer tries to turn back time, Cher-style, as the NL East-leading Phillies visit the NL West-leading Diamondbacks, taking the field behind highly touted kid pitcher Max Scherzer. 

This is going to be a real test for the Phillies organization (one that other organizations have already failed).  What to do with RJ Swindle?

Never heard of him?  Neither had I until Baseball Prospectus flagged him today .  He's a AA pitcher for the Phils who has floated around the minors for several years now.  He was drafted in the 14th round of the 2004 draft by the Red Sox.  After 51 innings of 1.94 ERA pitching, mostly in relief, he was released.  The Yankees gave him a shot in 2006.  He pitched 44+ innings of A ball giving up just 3 (yup, you read that right - 3) earned runs.  His ERA was a video-game-esque 0.61.  For that, he earned a 2 inning promotion to AAA, where he gave up 0 runs . . . and then, naturally, was released again.

The Phillies signed him away from the Independent League Newark Bears last year.  He had 29 innings of a 0.93 ERA in low-A Lakewood and was promoted mid-year.  He showed his first signs of stumbling in professional ball at high-A Clearwater, pitching 15 innings and giving up 8 earned runs.  But he's rebounded so far this year at AA Reading, where he's back to his miniscule ERA ways -- 0.54 ERA in 16+ innings.

All told, in 157+ innings of professional non-independent league pitching, Swindle has a 1.48 ERA, with a 175:18 strikeout-to-walk ratio.  In case you need that again, his strikeout-to-walk ratio is 175 to 18.

So what's wrong with this guy that he's bounced around three organizations now even though he's shown every sign of dominating almost wherever he's been?  Swindle is a lefty junkballer.  He throws his fastball in the low- to mid-80s.  He has a curveball in the low 50s.  Obviously, he doesn't fit the profile of someone who should dominate, but so far, he has.  It's going to be up to the Phillies organization to give him a shot now.

Normally, I wouldn't hold my breath on something like this.  The Phillies have not tended to be an organization that bucks the baseball trend on many things.  But maybe this is one area that the organization has seen that it can succeed already.  Swindle's profile reminds me a bit of Randy Wolf.  Wolf, also a lefty, has a fastball that reaches into the low 90s, so he's got that on Swindle, but when Wolf was at his best in the early 00s, he mixed in really slow curveballs and lots of other off-speed stuff.  Wolf also is short, something that goes against the presumed requirements for pitchers.  Undoubtedly, Wolf was a big time prospect, something Swindle is not, but maybe an organization that nurtured Wolf could also see something good in a guy like Swindle and give him a chance if he keeps dominating as he has.

Winner: Tim Lincecum, by unanimous decision

Sorry Cole, your team may have won the game, but Timmah won the pitching matchup against these two youngsters. 

The lines:

Ignore the unearned runs as it is a silly stat.  Sure, the inning should have been over, but the pitcher STILL gave up a bunch of hits and runs.  Also ignoring the season ERA, the lines look very similiar.  One more hit for Hamels, 2 walks for Lincecum, both went 6, got 5 Ks and gave up 4 runs (1 Cole Hamels homerun). 

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No, I don't want to physically injure the NL MVP frontrunner. Let's take a closer look at what he's doing this season.

Utley is currently sporting a ridiculous 1.227 OPS, by far the best of his career (he hit .976 last year) The home runs are the most obvious improvement: he's already hit more than half as many as he did in the five months he played last season. He's on pace to hit 68 for the year, which would be 3rd best of all time.

Not only is he hitting more home runs, he's hitting more extra-base hits overall. It's not just doubles turning into homers. He's on pace for 52 doubles, which is behind the crazy pace he hit them at last year, but still would have been enough to lead the league.

But what's behind the power surge? His other stats don't look exceptional. His batting average is significantly up, but it has steadily improved every season. His strikeut rate is slightly down and walk rate is a bit up (the latter largely owing to being IBBed a few times due to Howard's struggles), but both are also in line with career trends.

What is unexpected is that his groundball rate is sharply down while his line drive and flyball rates are both up:

via www.fangraphs.com

Also, per the Hardball Times, his HR/FB rate is by far the best of his career, at 23.4% (vs. a career rate of ~13%). This isn't an unusual HR/FB rate compared to other sluggers, however -- Barry Bonds bettered Chase's ratio in 3 of his last 4 seasons, and Ryan Howard has hit more home runs per fly ball in every year but this one.

What isn't off the charts, surprisingly enough, is Chase's average on balls in play. It's at .348, which is well above average, but not remarkable nor unsustainable. It's actually down from last season, when his BABIP was .362.

What does all this mean? I don't know, except that it seems extremely unlikely that he'll be able to keep up this pace. Utley doesn't have the physique usually associated with this kind of slugging, although the fact that his HR/FB rate isn't extraordinary is a good sign. The single biggest key to his success thus far would seem to be his GB/FB/LD rates. If he can keep smashing liners and flies all year even if some of his other numbers regress, he may well cruise to the MVP award.

Pitching-wise, it doesn't get much better than this... should be fun. 

I'm out of action again for this one, but it worked out okay last night. 

Giants lineup: Lewis, Velez, Winn, Molina, Rowand, Bowker, Aurilia, Bocock, Cain

Phils lineup: Victorino, Dobbs, Utley, Howard, Burrell, Jenkins, Coste, Bruntlett, Myers

Given the weather and the reps of the starters, you might expect a low-scoring affair tonight, but both pitchers have fairly gruesome career lines against the other team.