Phillies sign pitcher J. Santana

by Laaaaazzz on Nov 30, 2005 5:15 PM EST

No, not that J. Santana. They signed Julio Santana to a one-year, $800,000 contract on Wednesday.

The Phillies were already familiar with him as he played in AAA with the Red Barons in 2003. He followed that by going to Japan in 2004. Perhaps he learned something out there as his numbers with the Brewers in 2005 were much improved: increased K/9, better H/IP and K/BB. His ERA wasn't that great but it seems out of proportion to his peripherals. It should be lower this season if he pitches as "well" as 2005. Baseball Prospectus lists his adjusted runs prevented as 7.1, good for 98th among all relievers in 2005.

I really like the signing. It's a cheap, 1 year deal. If Santana prospers, like Aaron Fultz last season, then we have a bargain. If he fails, he's easy to cut. This is the type of player who is excellent for bullpen depth -- some upside, little risk, cheap.

I'm glad to see Gillick have a plan for the bullpen that doesn't consist of "sign any available veteran arm for 3 years". Furthermore, no draft pick was given up. We may still lose one for signing a "proven closer", but at least doing so isn't compounded by giving up a second round pick for bullpen filler as we have done in the past (e.g. Jose Mesa and Rheal Cormier after the 2000 season).

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This is how you build a bullpen

You throw together a bunch of cheap arms that have good peripherals and upside and then see what sticks. If someone is surprisingly pitching great (Aaron Fultz 2005; Ryan Madson 2004), you move him up in leverage innings; if someone is surprisingly pitching terribly (Terry Adams 2005), get rid of him and take the very small salary hit.

The Ed Wade model -- throw millions at aging relievers with past histories of success -- was an absolute failure here. It just doesn't anticipate small sample size success and small sample size failure, which is pretty much the story of how all but the best relievers in baseball work.

by David S. Cohen on Dec 1, 2005 12:10 PM EST reply actions

busy week

With the additions of Nunez, Santana, and now Sal Fasano, it seems like Gillick has pretty clear ideas about how he wants to fill out the roster. I lamented the opportunity cost of the Nunez signing in that thread, but I like this move quite a bit, and the Fasano deal has its clear merits as well.

by dajafi on Dec 1, 2005 4:25 PM EST reply actions