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New left fielder

As much as I have been a fan of Pat Burrell and stuck through his bad times, I think it is probably about time to get rid of the guy who killed us down the stretch last year (if we can).  Yes, he put up good overall numbers, but there seems to be something missing in his game.  I don't believe in intangibles, but I do believe that certain guys aren't cut out for certain situations.  There is a guy that is available to the Phillies that they can play in left field over the utter disappointment that couldn't hit with runners in scoring position for August and September.  I'll post their stats and you can decide for yourself.

Star-divide

Both players had VERY similar years.

Pat Burrell:
.258 BA .388 OBP .502 SLG .890 OPS

Replacement:
.281 BA .389 OBP .504 SLG .893 OPS

The replacement player put up similar rate stats, but hit for a higher average as Burrell, in his obvious wussified state, rather just walked.  Ok, but how about the raw numbers?

Pat Burrell:
29 HRs 80 Runs 95 RBIs 131 Ks 98 BBs in 462 ABs

Replacement:
32 Hrs 78 Runs 117 RBIs 160 Ks 99 BBs in 562 ABs

The replacement player put up similar numbers again, but many more RBIs.  However, had Pat had as many ABs as the replacement player, he would have had 115 RBIs (and more of the other counting stats too).  So, these two players look very similar still, but here is where we see a HUGE difference.  The clutch factor.

Pat Burrell:
Nobody on: .857 OPS
Runners on: .918 OPS
Scoring position: .722 OPS
Scoring Position and 2 outs: .619 OPS

Replacement:
Nobody on: .849 OPS
Runners on: .931 OPS
Scoring position: 1.027 OPS
Scoring Position and 2 outs: 1.119 OPS

As you see, the replacement player SHINED with runners in scoring position and especially with 2 outs.  While the overall numbers remained pretty much identical, I am SURE that if this replacement player played for the Phillies instead of Pat Burrell, you'd see an even MORE monster season.  Right?

Wait...I just realized...that replacement player IS Pat Burrell.  Pat Burrell from 2005!  We DO in fact have that clutch player, don't we?

As much as Pat was clutch 2 years ago, he was just as unclutch this past year.  What does that mean?  I really don't know other than a homer with a man on first scores 2 runs just like a homer with a man on third.  Could have Pat lost his edge?  Sure.  Anything is possible.  It is much more likely that Pat just swung at the wrong pitches (or didn't swing at the right ones) in clutch situations more than he did the previous year.  This appears to be exactly the case that the word ANOMOLY was created for.

Yes, Pat can be very frustrating, as can any player that fails with runners in scoring position.  We want them all to score and when they don't, it is easy to pick on one target.  I expect Pat bounces back to the mean next year, and if he does, he'll have a monster season.

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lets hope...
I've kept up my faith in him. I even strung him along on my fantasy team for most of the season. He needs to be more openminded and listen to his batting coaches more. He just needs to tweak his stance and his swing like the coaches always suggest to him and he won't strike out as much. Plus, he needs to reduce his ego and admit to needing some help.

by UtleyPhan on Oct 16, 2006 10:39 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Season splits?
Anyone know of a source that can give you seasonal splits in "clutch" situations? My piece from September showed that Burrell was having a very good season through June 20, but he was pretty bad after that (except for the last week plus, that is). I wonder if his "clutch" numbers also were good until June 20 but then bad afterwards.

Anyone know how to find that out?

by David S. Cohen on Oct 16, 2006 3:19 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I think you'll have to wait
Shore's Retrosheet-based database could give you that, but I've never seen anything else with that level of granularity online. Unfortunately, Retrosheet doesn't update it's game logs until close to the beginning of the season, IIRC.

by phatj on Oct 16, 2006 4:14 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

yahoo
yahoo sports has good split stats. not sure its what  you want but check it out.

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/6375

by UtleyPhan on Oct 16, 2006 3:48 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Options
I think the only thing this team can do is go into next season with Burrell (after reasonably addressing lingering medical problems) and hope for the best.  At worst, he's a 25 HR / .365 OBP guy who can't run and gets paid too much.  At best, 40 HR and MVP candidate.  Trade him and you eat too much salary and/or get zilch back.

by WholeCamels on Oct 16, 2006 4:16 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

that's it
After the Abreu debacle, I just have no faith that the Phils can both dump a significant chunk of the contract and get anything of value back. I suppose it's debatable whether the Abreu outcome--dump the whole contract, get back nothing--would be acceptable with Burrell, but as was true of Bobby, I'd rather just have the guy as a contributor, even an overpaid one.

by dajafi on Oct 16, 2006 6:48 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Cute....the old lf and the new lf are the same...
Okay, okay, I'm convinced Burrell isn't that bad of a player, he just had an off year. Although I'm starting to feel like Winston in Orwell's 1984 (....if the party tells you 2+2=5 then you must believe it implicitly and without question....) when it comes to this issue. Even the  non-saber Phillies boards are all coming around to the fact Burrell is probably the best lf we can get for next year and any trade or free agent signing will likely leave the team worse off than it is now.

I would like to see the Phils improve their bench to the point where if someone gets hurt (ala Thome in 2005, Bell in 2004 and 2006, Burell in 2006) we can sit them down, at least for a few weeks or a month to get treatment, instead of watching them decline all year as their injury worsens through continous playing.

xats

by xatsman on Oct 21, 2006 11:29 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

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