Baseball Reference

by Shore on Oct 4, 2006 10:31 PM EDT Comment 25 comments

Has their 2006 stats posted, in record time this year.

For geeks like me, this is like a holiday.

Ryan Howard is here.

Enjoy.

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Howard

What a horrible list of comparable batters!

by David S. Cohen on Oct 4, 2006 11:15 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Age

Howard is old. That's the big problem. You aren't going to find many hall of famers who have their first full season at age 26.

by Laaaaazzz on Oct 4, 2006 11:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He's unique...

His highest comp isn't that high of a score. That's one measure of his greatness.

He lead the league in Total Bases, and in Times on Base. The 1-2 punch of scoring. That's awesome... Bonds never did it, McGwire never did it, Sosa never did it. I think Bagwell did in the strike year (94?).

Sweetness.

"Yet the still mightly few, back him up" - Philsin06

by Shore on Oct 4, 2006 11:46 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Comps

Unique <> great

Not that there is anything wrong with Howard, of course, but you can't make the leap from "few comparable" to "player must be great". A left fielder who hits .100/.150/.200 over 5 years probably would have very un-similar similarity score as well.

by Laaaaazzz on Oct 5, 2006 10:57 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

That would be a testament to

that LF historic badness.

I think it was obvious that I meant Howard's amazing production AND his uniqueness combine to show his greatness.

"Yet the still mightly few, back him up" - Philsin06

by Shore on Oct 5, 2006 11:50 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Cole

Fun to look at his rookie campaign in total now.

117 H, 48 BB, 145 K, 4.08 ERA for a 113 ERA+ in 132.3 IP. That's a pretty sweet line for a 23-year-old rookie. I especially like the walk rate. It's lower than I expected and a lot lower than it looked like it was going to be after his first few starts. Keep the ball in the park, and he's scary good.

by phatj on Oct 5, 2006 12:40 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Drool

Wow, look at those strikeout numbers.

Just... wow.

by DanT on Oct 5, 2006 2:27 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Pat Burrell

Hmm, Burrell has a 124 OPS+. That must be a misprint, because I've heard so many times that he su-hucks...

Btw, Utley has a 127, and Rollins a 103. Just sayin'.

by dajafi on Oct 5, 2006 2:12 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

His career OBP

is 117, right there with Kingmans 115. So Burrell is Kingman...ewe.

by Philsin06 on Oct 5, 2006 6:27 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

That's OPS, not OBP

Reading Is Fundamental.

Plus, it includes ALL of Kingman's career - and he had his 3 best seasons after age 29.

Through age 29, Kingman stood at .232 avg, .298 obp, .485 slg - Burrell's at .258 / .362 / .479. So, while they've got a comparable SLG, there's no comparing their OBP or AVG. And that 64-point edge Burrell has in OBP is a HUGE difference... a lineup of Burrell's would score just over 6 runs per game; a lineup of Kingman's would be under 5. Burrell is worth at least 2 wins per year over Kingman, just on offense.

Burrell's most comparable player through age 29 is Gil Hodges, who made 8 all-star teams, and got MVP votes in 9 different years.

Also interesting is that in 2005, Burrell was 7th in the league in MVP voting (and had an OPS+ of 125). Now, one season later (after an OPS+ of 124), he's got to go... it's ridiculous.

"Yet the still mightly few, back him up" - Philsin06

by Shore on Oct 5, 2006 8:41 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

And look at Conine

OPS+ of 81 with the Phils, 87 for the year. And he's 40. Yep, great pickup. Sure to be boon to the team next year, too. I mean, where else can you find a guy who could hit 81% as well as the average major leaguer?

Oh, wait.. the average AAA hitter will hit better than 81% as well as the average major leaguer. Imagine what a decent AAA hitter would do.

Nevermind, he's veteran, "clutch", and makes just enough money that people can forgive his little 0-for-7s.

"Yet the still mightly few, back him up" - Philsin06

by Shore on Oct 5, 2006 8:46 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Yeah lets kill the guy

because he had a 0-7, but praise the guy who has a .222 with RISP, a .376 OBP and a .722 OPS. It doesn't matter that Conine batted .317 with RISP, or his .391 OBP or his .855 OPS. None of that matters, just that one game. Nice. I love you guys, I really do.
It amazes me.

by Philsin06 on Oct 5, 2006 9:18 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm not killing him for an 0-7

I'm killing him because he's a corner outfielder who get out-hit by the average player at EVERY position in the major leagues... in 538 AB this year, between Baltimore and Philly, he hit .268 / .325 / .399, for a .724 OPS. Here's what the AVERAGE player at every position in the majors hit:

NL 1B - .879
NL LF - .837 (Burrell at .890)
NL 3B - .826
AL 1B - .819
AL DH - .818
AL RF - .817
NL RF - .798
AL LF - .796
AL 3B - .780
AL CF - .771
NL 2B - .758
NL CF - .753
AL C - .749
AL SS - .745
NL C - .743
NL SS - .737
AL 2B - .727

Conine- .724

The average player at EVERY SINGLE position in both leagues out-hit Conine for the year... and he was WORSE here than he was overall.

You'd get more offense by replacing our "5-hole, Howard-protecting veteran" with the average NL catcher. Not starter, AVERAGE catcher in the league.

"Yet the still mightly few, back him up" - Philsin06

by Shore on Oct 5, 2006 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You don't think Conine will be the starter

Next year do you? Well he's not. He is a veteran part time player who can play multiple positions and at 0 cost.

by Philsin06 on Oct 5, 2006 3:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks, soothsayer

Who is the starter, then?

When we got him in August, he "wasn't a starter", either. He was a "veteran part time player who can play multiple positions".

And he got 94 September AB. Which was 4th on the team, behind Rollins, Victorino and Utley.

"Yet the still mightly few, back him up" - Philsin06

by Shore on Oct 5, 2006 4:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't know

ask the Burrell backers on this board. They should be able to tell you. Conine played vs. LH pitchers mostly.

by Philsin06 on Oct 6, 2006 8:16 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

LH?

Conine had 34 AB vs LH for the Phillies, 66 vs RH. Sounds like he played against everyone.

"Yet the still mightly few, back him up" - Philsin06

by Shore on Oct 6, 2006 9:15 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

so where the LH pitcher

relief pitchers or were they the starters?

by Philsin06 on Oct 6, 2006 9:40 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Give it up

If they were relievers, it FURTHER harms your argument: it would mean he played ONLY against RH starters, the opposite of what you said, and faced some LH relievers.

We acquired him 8/28. He joined the team 8/30, started that night, then pinch-hit the next 2.

From the 2nd game of the double header on 9/2, he started 20 of the Phillies last 27 games, and pinch-hit or replaced someone in 4 others.

He was a starter, WHILE Burrell and Dellucci were here. If neither one is here, as you hope/speculate, why are you confident he'll be a reserve?

"Yet the still mightly few, back him up" - Philsin06

by Shore on Oct 6, 2006 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

dude shut up

you obviously have no idea what your talking about. No matter what he was a platton player. Either in RF or LF. So if he was starting in LF, who was on the bench if both players bat RH?

Actually, yeah he did start alot at the end of the season, but he also was the best player out of the 3. Next year, he won't be a starter. Get it.

by Philsin06 on Oct 6, 2006 4:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Please, go away

You don't understand baseball, you don't understand statistics, and you certainly don't understand logic.

BTW, a platoon player - typically - plays against EITHER RH or LH. If he plays against both, he's NOT A PLATOON PLAYER. (there's also one t, two o's).

He's also, easily, the worst player of the 3.

And the end of the season is the only time he was here.

"Yet the still mightly few, back him up" - Philsin06

by Shore on Oct 6, 2006 6:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hamels

A strange list for Hamels as well:

1. Al Grabowski (989)
2. Rick Jones (980)
3. Harvey Bailey (979)
4. Jack Dunleavy (977)
5. Edgar McNabb (977)
6. Cy Warmoth (977)
7. Ken Hunt (976)
8. Billy Gumbert (976)
9. Charlie Gassaway (976)
10. Scott Olsen (976)

Grabowski was a Cardinal for two years - 1929 and 1930. His baseball ages those years were 27 and 28. He pitched a total of 157 innings for his career and had a 4.07 career ERA. Yuck!

by David S. Cohen on Oct 5, 2006 10:00 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Strange is right

His #1 comp by age is Floyd Bannister. In 1977 at the age of 22, Bannister had a much lower strikeout rate, a higher walk rate, a higher hit rate, and gave up far fewer home runs.

The only similarity that I can see is in their raw ERA: Bannister's was 4.04 to Hamels' 4.08. But, Bannister's was vs. a league ERA of 3.56, so he was actually below average in that respect.

by phatj on Oct 5, 2006 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Very strange

The oddness with Grabowski as a comp is that the comp score is incredibly high - 989 is pretty close to perfect.

by David S. Cohen on Oct 5, 2006 1:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The similarity scores are

awful for very young players... the formulas used use 'career'-level differences to subtract points, so 90 K's, a huge difference in 150 IP, is only 3 points off. The schedule:

Pitchers
Start with a thousand and then subtract the following deductions.
One point for each difference of 1 win.
One point for each difference of 2 losses.
One point for each difference of .002 in winning percentage (max 100 points).
One point for each difference of .02 in ERA (max 100 points).
One point for each difference of 10 games pitched.
One point for each difference of 20 starts.
One point for each difference of 20 complete games.
One point for each difference of 50 innings pitched.
One point for each difference of 50 hits allowed.
One point for each difference of 30 strikeouts.
One point for each difference of 10 walks.
One point for each difference of 5 shutouts.
One point for each difference of 3 saves.

"Yet the still mightly few, back him up" - Philsin06

by Shore on Oct 5, 2006 1:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs