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End of Year AFL Report (Part I)

[Editor's note: Moved from the diaries. Thanks PhoenixPhilly for these great AFL reports over the past month!]

The Saguaros won their last game of the year, 5-0.  

Here are some links for you faithful readers:

Boxes, logs and recaps of all Saguaros games this year.
Final Stat Page
Phillies Organizational report (Jonathan Mayo)
Gonzalez interview

Gio Gonzalez performed interviews with Mayo throughout the AFL season.  I could only find the most recent one, however.

Star-divide

Both Gio Gonzalez and Kyle Kendrick pitched yesterday.  Gonzalez struggled with his control, but did not allow a run and only allowed two hits.  He was visibly frustrated with his lack of command.  Kendrick pitched an inning and a third, allowing one hit and no runs with a K.

For now, I will provide a short analysis for each AFLer.  Later, I may comment on some of the other good players I saw in the games I attended.  If anyone has the time, I recommend watching the AFL final on MLB.tv on Saturday 1pm MST.  Lots of potential future stars there such as McBeth, Zobrist, Yates and Tulowitzki.

Jason Jaramillo:  Jaramillo has 3 years of playing experience at the A and AA level (6 ABs at AAA).  He should start 2007 in AAA.  He is also the best option to be called up during the season if there is an injury.  He just turned 24.  His AFL season was a huge success.  Jaramillo finished the season with an OPS of 1.027, the only player on the team with an OPS over 1 and one of the few players in the league to do so.  He also had 9 BBs and 11Ks.  As I have said before, I believe that as his plate discipline improves, his other stats will follow.  He is a line drive hitter with limited power.  I wouldn't ever expect him to hit more than 20 HR in a season.  The switch hitting catcher also appeared to work well with pitchers, for whatever that is worth.

Projection:  League average everyday catcher.

Joe Bisenius:  Bisenius also just turned 24 and has 3 years experience in A and AA.  In fact, he pitched only 23 innings in Reading last year.  He is currently on the AAA roster.  The Phillies brass must want to push him a bit.  He did average over a strikeout an inning last year, which is a good sign.  After being rocked in his first outing, Bisenius left the team to recover from an abdominal pull.  When returning, he threw four innings with 6 Ks, 3BBs and 1 hit.  I didn't see him pitch.  I would imagine that he'll get a spring training invite, but don't see a guy with only 23 innings of AA ball making the club.

Projection: Not enough information.

Gavin Floyd:  What people tend to forget about Gavin Floyd is that he is only 22.  He will turn 23 in January.  He was the 4th pick in the 2001 draft.  Remember when the Phillies used to always bring their guys along so slowly and the fans used to whine that they should be given a shot in the majors sooner?  Well, Floyd was doing great in the minors: 02 in Lakewood, 03 in Clearwater and 04 in a half season in Reading.  Then he was advanced to Scranton, did less than okay and was brought up to the big club.  He pitched very well and became a starter in the majors in 05.  He blew up and hasn't been the same since.  This may have been one case when the Phillies "conventional wisdom" may have been correct.  Anyway, he still has the arm to pitch in the big leagues.  He was up and down this AFL season.  What bothers me most is that he had only 14Ks in 19.1 IP.  A guy with Major League experience and that curve should have more than that.  Guys like Joey Devine, Lenny DiNardo, Patrick Misch, Billy Sadler, etc. all averaged more than a K/IP.  They are generally similar to Floyd in that they were high (no lower than 7th round) draft picks that have at least cameoed in the majors.  The scouts still love his stuff.  I really think he is the prototypical change-of-scenery guy.  I'm of the opinion that we should get what we can for him now.

Projection:  Little ML success, out of baseball before he is 30.  There are just too many guys with great stuff who haven't made it.  Most of them, in fact.

Gio Gonzalez:  What a pitcher!  Gonzalez was the prize of the Thome trade (which will look very good if we can get a quality SP for Rowand).  His numbers have been consistently good in the minors and he seems set to star in a potentially stacked Ottawa rotation.  He just turned 21 and started the AFL all-star game.  He is also a lefty with good movement on his pitches.  The only negative that people see in him is his lack of size (5-11, 185).  I wonder how many guys who read this board are about that size?

Projection:  In rotation sometime in 2008.  Tom Glavine if he stays that healthy.

I'll do Happ, Kendrick and Segovia later.

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nice work
Very encouraging about Gio. I was a little worried that the organization might have overworked him, but I'll trust they have a better idea than I do about the risks there. ("Tom Glavine" is a pretty high bar, though; that guy is going to win 300 games and get a bust in Cooperstown. If Gio wins half that many for the Phils, I'll be more than thrilled.)

You're probably on the money with Floyd, though unfortunately he's actually 23 now and will turn 24 in January. I anticipate he'll be a throw-in piece of some trade this winter.

The thing about Jaramillo IMO is that his walk rate is really good. If he's an above-average defender who hits something like .270/.340/.420 over a few years of low-cost work, I'll be happy.

Great write-up and thanks for the reports throughout the AFL season.

by dajafi on Nov 17, 2006 4:29 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Glavine
Yeah, Glavine is a very high bar.  I was going to say that he would be a less effective version of Glavine that would probably have a half a run higher ERA, but then I'd be talking about another pitcher.  I should have stated that they are the same TYPE of pitcher.  Neither throws hard.  They are the same size.  Both have good sliders/cut fastballs.  Glavine has been AMAZINGLY healthy over the years, which is something that can not be reasonably expected from any pitcher.

by PhoenixPhilly on Nov 17, 2006 6:54 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Jaramillo
Since I lived about 5 minutes from the stadium, I went to most Blue Claws home games when Jaramillo was there. He has an absolute gun for an arm. In what seemed like a showoff move he'd typically thrown to first or second from his knees after strikeout. He'd often make some suspect defensive decisions, which is expected by kids in low A ball, but you could absolutely tell the physical tools are there. I can't wait to see his arm tested by major league caliber base stealers.
Bleeding Green Nation Philadelphia Eagles Blog

by JasonB on Nov 18, 2006 5:11 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

His arm
In the games I saw him, he didn't have a chance to throw out runners.  Either they got a great jump or it was a pitch in the dirt.  I did see him make some nice snap throws to first.  Duncan was caught off guard, but I never saw him throw it away doing that.  He is still inconsistent defensively, but hopefully another year in the minors will help him with that.

by PhoenixPhilly on Nov 18, 2006 6:19 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Jaramillo's AFL Splits
Vs. RHP: .278/.372/.444/.817 in 36 AB. Very respectable.
Vs. LHP: .542/.556/.750/1.306 in 24 AB. WOW!
These numbers are through 11/12, so they're missing Jason's last two games.

Interestingly, these splits are opposite (plus much, much better) than Jaramillo's regular season splits in Reading:
Vs. RHP: .240/.335/.402/.736 in 229 AB.
Vs. LHP: .266/.278/.351/.629 in 94 AB.

The bad news here is that Jaramillo's BABIP was sky-high: .458 vs. a league-average of .331, and a team average of .336. This is way beyond unsustainable.

On the other hand, he had some bad luck on balls in play in Reading: .282 BABIP when the Eastern League averaged .302 and the Reading Phils averaged .303.

All numbers are from the awesome site minorleaguesplits.com. (Well, it would be more awesome if they moved to a better server. Sponsor a player now!)

by phatj on Nov 18, 2006 6:48 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

BABIP
When I was doing those top 10 prospect writeups a few months ago, I noticed that Jaramillo's BABIP in Reading was really, really low. No question his AFL number was superfreakishly high, but the big deal to me is that he kept up and actually improved his walk rate.

He isn't a great prospect by any means, but he's probably the best bet of any position player in the system to hold an everyday job in MLB. The Phils have a long, long way to go in rebuilding the pharm.

by dajafi on Nov 19, 2006 11:52 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

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