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Jamie Moyer -- Mentor?

Much ado has been made of the notion that Jamie Moyer's acquisition was good for Cole Hamels' development. Comcast's John Marzano has discussed it on Post Game Live, ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick wrote a column about it (although I can't read it because it's an "Insider" piece), and it's been mentioned by Ken Mandel of Phillies.com, including a quote from Hamels himself:

The intangibles Gillick spoke of referred to the veteran leadership that Moyer provided on the four days between starts. He was often seen huddled with Randy Wolf or Cole Hamels with a baseball in his hand, and they typically weren't discussing the weather.

"He showed me that you don't have to throw 95 miles an hour to get somebody out," Hamels said in September. "He's told me a lot of things. It's amazing that he's still doing what he's doing."

That's all well and good, but The Good Phight is about, among other things, not taking things for granted. So let's look closer.

Star-divide

Proponents of this theory will point to Hamels' stats before and after the August 19 trade for Moyer (all numbers courtesy of Dave Pinto's fantastic Day-by-Day Database): 4.50 ERA, 1.26 WHIP before, 3.35 ERA, 1.22 WHIP after. But wait a minute: the trade wasn't announced until after the completion of Hamels' start on that date, in which he went 6 innings, giving up 2 ER, 5 H and 1 BB. So the correct pre- and post-Moyer numbers are actually as follows:

Before Moyer (5/12 - 8/19): 4.40 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
After Moyer (8/24 - 9/27): 3.40 ERA, 1.25 WHIP

So now the difference is smaller, but still significant, at least in terms of ERA: Hamels' allowed one full earned run per nine innings fewer under Jamie's tutelage than he did before.

But maybe Hamels was actually improving before Moyer arrived. If so, this might be missed in the above comparison.

It turns out that Hamels' 2006 ERA hit its high point after his July 24th start, in which he was lit up for 7 ER in 5 1/3 innings. In his next five starts prior to Moyer's arrival (including the 8/19 start), King Cole went off: 1.83 ERA and 0.84 WHIP over 34 1/3 innings. So, perhaps the more meaningful comparison would be between these numbers and his post-Moyer performance. It turns out that Hamels was on a big-time hot streak leading up to Moyer joining the team, and his subsequent numbers were actually worse.

At any rate, it appears, talking heads' comments and Hamels' own lip service to the contrary, that Moyer didn't help Hamels at all.

0 recs | Comment 13 comments

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Stop!
No one wants to hear the truth.  

Our GM sucks, badly IMO, at acquiring talent.  So the masses are desperate to hear that "Chemistry" is more important; that makeup trumps talent.

Facts that diminish the feel-good anecdotal evidence aren't welcome.

Thanks,
   The Fanbase

by Shore on Nov 6, 2006 12:57 AM EST   0 recs

So Moyer actually hurt Hamels
In the 34 innings immediately before Moyer joined the team, Hamels had a 1.83 ERA.

In the 42 innings after Moyer joined the team, Hamels had a 3.40 ERA.

That doesn't sound like good mentorship to me.  How do these scribes and talking heads get away with being so incompetent at their jobs?

by David S. Cohen on Nov 6, 2006 9:54 AM EST   0 recs

re1
You and your facts aren't welcome here!  Just let me believe what I want to believe!
http://hugetinymistake.wordpress.com/

by pacino on Nov 6, 2006 12:06 PM EST   0 recs

forget hamels
If Moyer wants to earn his money from this contract, make him turn Gavin Floyd into a rotation regular on the big club.  From all accounts, Floyd has the stuff; he just needs the attitude and "pitching smarts" to catch up to his stuff.  

Cole would have been fine, even if the Miyagi-like qualities of Moyer never set foot in the clubhouse.  Gavin-san, paint the fence!

by Alex Falzone on Nov 6, 2006 1:30 PM EST   0 recs

oh you cynical statheads
We all know that it was Rowand's attempt to morph himself with the wall that was set up to salvage the very life and career of Gavin Floyd. I mean, after that game against the Mets, where his teammate just put it all on the line, Floyd was unstoppable.

by Ace on Nov 6, 2006 9:15 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Hold on
What about the start against Chicago that he pitched with the cut on his finger? He gave up 5 runs in 2 innings. Can't blame that on one Moyer.

by WheresFregosi on Nov 7, 2006 11:29 AM EST   0 recs

Moyer/Gillick
He also seemed to have a positive influence on Myers towards the end of the season. We've had one year of Pat Gillick. He may not be perfect, but there's reason for optimism. Apparently they are looking at a Japanese third baseman. He signed Ichiro when he was with the Mariners. Come on guys. This is the offseason. It's blind optimism time!

by WheresFregosi on Nov 7, 2006 11:43 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

Just to be clear
I wasn't blaming Moyer for Hamels. I was trying to point out that there is no evidence whatsoever to suggest that Moyer's mentorship had any positive effect.

But anyway, omitting the 8/24 start against Chicago, Cole's numbers to the end of the season are 2.45 ERA, 1.10 WHIP over 40 1/3 innings. So it appears that Hamels was, while still excellent, not quite as phenomenal as he was immediately before Moyer joined the Phillies.

As to Myers, it's true that he was at his worst just before Moyer joined the team and improved thereafter: his ERA was at 4.40 after his 8/18 start, and ended at 3.94. But has anyone on the Phillies actually attributed this improvement to Moyer's influence? If not, I suggest that you're confusing correlation with causation.

by phatj on Nov 7, 2006 1:00 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Myers/Moyer
I guess all that I'm saying is that I'd rather have a leader like Jamie Moyer than a chump like Gavin Floyd out there every 5 days.

by WheresFregosi on Nov 7, 2006 1:40 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

I'm with you
I'm no fan of Floyd. I think the numbers agree too.

by phatj on Nov 7, 2006 1:59 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Blame Abreu...
Seems like Cole did better with him gone.  Thank goodness!

by jonk on Nov 8, 2006 3:17 AM EST   0 recs

Or Bell
Of course, it could have simply been David Bell's fault.

Or Sal Fasano!  Damn you Sal!

by Laaaaazzz on Nov 10, 2006 12:45 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

Sal
That 'tash must've put Cole off ! Now we know what the real reason behind his success was. I mean, staring at your catcher for signs when all you can see is a big clump of hair sticking out of the face mask must be distracting ;)

by fredex1 on Nov 12, 2006 5:28 PM EST   0 recs

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