Phils: no bid for 3b Iwamura

by dajafi on Nov 7, 2006 1:45 PM EST Comment 8 comments

The Phils, who are interested in free-agent third basemen Mark DeRosa and Wes Helms to share time with Abraham Nunez, will not make a bid for the negotiating rights for Yakult Swallows third baseman Akinori Iwamura of Japan's Central League. The Swallows put Iwamura up for bid yesterday.

He batted .311 this season. The Phillies say they are not interested. Not even a little bit.

Zolecki notes that "[f]inding protection for Ryan Howard in the lineup, adding bullpen help, and re-signing lefthander Randy Wolf" are all higher priorities than improving production from third base.

I'm not sure I agree--the production at 3b was so bad in 2006 that improvement there is the easiest and surest way to improve the team--but I can see why the team isn't biting on Iwamura. Between the posting fee and the contract he'd demand, Iwamura likely will cost at least $20 million, and the Mets' awful experience with Kaz Matsui probably has deterred a lot of teams from jumping into the unknown.

Presumably they've got other plans to spend the money. Who knows if it's a throwaway line or not, but Zolecki's short piece offers the strongest indication I've yet seen that the Phillies might be willing to outbid rivals to bring Wolf back.

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I'm fine with this

I agree with not going after Iwamura. It's too risky for probably too much money. But, I agree with you that not improving third base is a huge mistake. It's the easiest, most reliable way to improve the team. Getting better pitching is much more of a crapshoot. Going from the dreadful Nunez/Bell production to Aramis Ramirez would be a guaranteed improvement well worth the money.

by David S. Cohen on Nov 7, 2006 1:54 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Really?

mlbtraderumors.com has suggested that the winning bid for negotiating rights with Iwamura will be just $1 million.

I don't know what credibility mlbtraderumors.com has or where they got this particular nugget, but if true, bidding seems like it would be low-risk, high-reward.

by phatj on Nov 7, 2006 2:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

that's a pretty low number

Considerably less than what we'll be paying Noonerz next year. Of course, that bid would probably be a small part of the total cost to acquire Iwamura.

Some team could wind up looking very smart on this one, but like Dave I don't really blame Gillick for passing on this one.

by dajafi on Nov 7, 2006 5:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Agree

Count me among the fine with not pursuing Iwamura, but pissed off to not try to improve 3B crowd.

Third base is simply the biggest hole on the team and one that can be fixed the most easily. An average player at 3rd would be a nice improvement, let alone if we grabbed someone like A-Ram.

by Laaaaazzz on Nov 8, 2006 12:01 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Signing A-Ram

would really solve your 3B issue and your lack of protection for Howard issue all in one...

Bleeding Green Nation Philadelphia Eagles Blog

by JasonB on Nov 8, 2006 9:13 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Everyone always brings up Kaz Matsui...

what about Tadahito Iguchi? Solid defensively, hit around .280 with 15 or so HRs for 2 straight years?

That said, I have no clue whether Iwamura is the solution or if he's a guy I'd even be interested in seeing here.

Bleeding Green Nation Philadelphia Eagles Blog

by JasonB on Nov 7, 2006 4:02 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Projections

Jeff Sackman (of http://www.minorleaguesplits.com/ fame) posted an interesting article at The Hardball Times (http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/projecting-akinori-iwamura/) evaluating various projection systems to estimate how Iwamura would perform in MLB.

Here is his conclusion:

"I would love to offer more certainty, but there just isn't that much of a precedent for a player of Iwamura's caliber to cross the ocean. It seems certain that he'll maintain a decent batting average and an average-or-better OBP. The big question is just how much power he'll lose. Will he be the mid-level free agent that fills the final need on a contending team, or will he make someone wish they had opted for David Bell instead?"

It appears that the Phils were wise to pass.

by Celebre Twins on Nov 9, 2006 5:18 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Of course...

a David Bell that's still well under 30 with some upsides and draws Japanese spotlights and probably sign at a cheaper price isn't exactly a bad thing... Bell didnt hit much.. but Nunez was just beyond bad.

I think they should at least place a reasonable bid on him, if they can indeed win the bid at say.. under 5M and sign him to something like a 3/15 or less (which is pretty close to what we signed Bell to espically taken relative market into context)... WHY NOT?

the alternatives are hardly promising, DeRosa is a career utility man that had one greast season, he's also going to be 32 next year, Helms is also 30 years old, and again, another career bench guy that turned a corner this year.

Of course they could see if they can get A-ram, and if the could that would be the cast case solution, but if not, if it's between Iwamura vs DeRosa vs Helms , I really don't see why the Phillies wouldn't at least give it a shot. unless it's because they have 0 scouting on the far east and thus can't safely go after anyone from there. - -b

by RollingWave on Nov 9, 2006 10:12 PM EST reply actions 0 recs