Top Stories of 2006 -- Madson and Floyd, aka Crash and Burn

by WholeCamels on Dec 15, 2006 10:47 PM EST in News

The Phillies entered Spring Training in 2006 with only three rotation slots set - Jon Lieber, Brett Myers, and Cory Lidle. As March progressed, the team got a better picture of who would fill the last two spots - Ryan Madson, erstwhile reliever whose only previous big league start could have best been compared to the Bay of Pigs fiasco, and Gavin Floyd, who with a fine spring line seemed to finally be living up to the projections that led the Phils to draft him in the first round in 2001.

With three homegrown young hurlers in the rotation, and mercurial Cole Hamels biding his time in the minors, the planets seemed to be aligning. All of the promising young arms in the farm system were maturing at once, and would complement the club's terrific offense. But, like the man said, Young Pitchers Will Break Your Heart.

Madson and Floyd were flat-out terrible. Floyd posted a 7.29 ERA in 11 starts, with a mind-boggling 14 home runs allowed in 54.3 innings, and found himself in Triple-A in early June. Madson made it to 17 starts in two separate stretches, realizing only some semblance of success later in the season in the bullpen.

The struggles of Madson and Floyd contributed significantly to yet another slow start for the Phillies, which ultimately cost the team a trip to the postseason.

As for Floyd, he's the White Sox' problem now, having been shipped to Chicago along with Gio Gonzalez for Freddy Garcia. Madson's apparent inability to add an effective third pitch has led to permanent banishment to the bullpen. And for better or worse, the Phillies have six starters (Liebermyershamelsgarciaeatonmoyer) at the time of this writing -- whether they're going to be any good remains to be seen.

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MADSON'S 17 STARTS IN 2006

Each line, in sequence, details OPP TEAM - OPP STARTING PITCHER - MADSON INNINGS PITCHED - OPP STARTER INNINGS PITCHED - MADSON TOTAL RUNS ALLOWED - OPP STARTER TOTAL RUNS ALLOWED - STARTER DECISION AND UPDATED STARTER WON-LOST RECORD - WINNING TEAM AND SCORE.

1. LA (Lowe) 6-6 * 3-2 SL (0-1) PHL, 6-3
2. @ COL (Day) 7.0 - 2.2 * 4-5 SW (1-1) PHL, 10-8
3. Wash (Traber) 1.0-5.2 * 9-4 SL (1-2) WASH, 10-4
4. Col (Jennings) 5-5 * 4-7 SW (2-2) PHL, 9-5
5. FLA (Willis) 5.1-7.1 * 5-8 SW (3-2) PHL, 8-5

6. SF (Wright) 6-6 * 1-3 SW (4-2) PHL, 4-1
7. MILW (Eveland) 5-5 * 2-4 SW (5-2) PHL, 6-2
8. @LA (Seo) 5-4 * 5-3 SL (5-3) PHL, 8-6
9. @ ARZ (Nippert) 7.2-5 * 3-6 SW (6-3) PHL, 7-3

NYM (Glavine) 5-4.1 * 8-4 SL (6-4) NYM, 8-6
TB (Mc Clung) 6.2-4.2 * 4-6 SW (7-4) PHL, 8-5
@Bost (Beckett) 1.2-8.0 * 6-2 SL (7-5) BOST, 10-2
@Balt (Lopez) 8.2-7.2 * 0-4 SW (8-5) PHL, 4-0
SD (Park) 5-7 * 5-3 SL (8-6) SD, 5-3
@SD (Hensley) 5.1-6 * 7-2 SL (8-7) SD, 10-6
ARZ (Batista) 4-6 * 2-4 SW (9-7) ARZ, 6-5
FLA (Moeller) 6-5.1 * 2-4 SW (10-7) PHL, 9-2

Innings pitched - runs allowed bottom line is:
90.1-95.2 * 68-71. This transposes to a run ratio of 98.59 - 100, a Pythagorean W-L record of 80-82.

So - Madson outpitched 10 of 17 rival starters and the Phillies won 11 of his 17 starts. The Phillies had a record of 9-1 in the 10 games Madson got the starter win. The Phillies had a record of 2-5 in the seven games Madson took the starter loss. In other words, in 14 of the 17 games, the team which got the starter win (more effective outing from its starter vs. the opposition starter), won the game. This equals 82 per cent, slightly below the MLB large-sampling standard of 85 per cent.

The conclusion here is that Madson is mediocre in the run-ratio department, but gives the Phillies the edge in his direct match-ups with opposition starters = the factor which most strongly correlates with success and victory of the myriad factors which determine the outcome of a baseball game.

The relief story re Madson isn't pretty, and someone else can do the math, and really should, if you are going to try and make a case for Madson being an effective RP, and being a better RP than he is an SP. Don't just tell us he is this or that, show us!

by robbybonfire on Dec 16, 2006 12:33 AM EST reply actions

If a little knowledge is a dangerous thing...

You're the most dangerous man in America.

by Shore on Dec 16, 2006 12:48 AM EST up reply actions

LET'S HEAR FROM YOU

I would be interested in YOUR interpretation and your assessment of the Madson record, in 2006, if you would care to share it with us.

by robbybonfire on Dec 16, 2006 7:12 AM EST reply actions

BY THE WAY

By the way, in Madson's starts, the Phillies outscored the opposition by a composite 105-89, which transposes to a Pythagorean 94-68 record over 162 games. If everyone else on the team had performed at that level, the Phillies would have made it to the post-season.

by robbybonfire on Dec 16, 2006 7:51 AM EST reply actions

So, what you're saying

Is that in order for the Phillies to win 94 games behind a rotation of five Ryan Madsons, they'd have to score runs at a rate approaching that of the 1930 Yankees.

Sign me up.

by phatj on Dec 16, 2006 10:37 AM EST up reply actions

I see...

So if the other pitchers just made the offense score while they were pitching wow the Phils would have been great. Man Myers and company better learn how to motivate their offense better.

by Homer on Dec 16, 2006 2:39 PM EST up reply actions

harumph

it's evil genius!

by uncle milt on Dec 20, 2006 7:54 AM EST up reply actions

The Dow once

went up 300 points while I ate a bologna sandwich.

Thus, I began daytrading like a madman, whilst eating a LOT of bologna sandwiches.

Unfortunately, all I ended up was broke, fat, and needing a new keyboard.

Certain contributions to the this thread reminded me of this, I'm not sure why.

by Shore on Dec 16, 2006 3:36 PM EST reply actions

Well...

Ryan Madson wasn't all that much of a surprise to me as a starter.

I was pretty bummed about Floyd though. I was really excited about the possibility of a homegrown top of the rotation with Myers, Floyd, and Hamels... Floyd was one of the guys we'd been teased with for so long and it was so exciting to think he may have finally put it together...

Although I have to give Madson credit for the gutty relief performance against the Mets where he pitched more innings that he probably ever did as a starter...

Bleeding Green Nation Philadelphia Eagles Blog

by JasonB on Dec 16, 2006 11:20 PM EST reply actions