Top Stories of 2006 -- Rowand the Headfirst Baseball Runner

by WholeCamels on Dec 20, 2006 11:19 PM EST in News Comment 19 comments

Pat Gillick's first major move of his tenure in Philadelphia was a doozy, shipping fan favorite slugging first baseman Jim Thome and about $22 million in cash to the Chicago White Sox for stud pitching prospects Daniel Haigwood and Gio Gonzalez, and scrap-iron centerfielder Aaron Rowand.

Rowand had been terrific at the plate in 2004, posting a .905 OPS, and was even better with the glove in 2005, saving 30 runs over an average centerfielder for the World Champion White Sox, according to some statistical models.

Knowledgeable fans kept hearing about Rowand's defense and were willing to accept some offensive drop-off from 2005's outstanding Kenny Michaels platoon, especially with a pitching staff full of flyballers like Ryan Franklin and the not-exactly-rangy Pat Burrell and Bobby Abreu in the corners.

On May 11, a night game versus the Mets, Phillies fans across the region finally got their Joe Theismann Moment. With the bases loaded in the first inning with two outs, Xavier Nady socked a Gavin Floyd offering deep into centerfield at Citizens' Bank Park. The rest is well known to all; Aaron Rowand's face-first wall-slamming catch likely saved three runs in a rain-shortened five inning Phillies victory, but at the price of a totally jacked up face and a trip to the 15-day DL. The video of the catch became the bloodiest and most replayed television clip in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania since Bud Dwyer's final press conference in 1986 (yes, I went there; it was a snow day, for Pete's sake!).

The media's response was predictably orgiastic; Rowand's battering ram heroics, the mediocracy said, were to be the "Remember the Alamo!" catalyst to inspire young guys as well as the lackadaisical, complacent veterans to win just one for the Gipper. His seeming disregard for personal safety should have served to shame the wall-shy (yet mysteriously durable and productive...) Abreu into being a more aggressive outfielder.

Sadly, no. The Phillies played their worst baseball of the season in June after Rowand returned from the DL, digging themselves a hole in the standings which proved impossible to escape, and while we cannot really prove causation, Rowand was a different and significantly worse hitter after the injury (who knows, maybe shattering parts of your face could affect your ability to see pitches properly?).

Was "The Catch" worth it? The virtues and drawbacks of such reckless play were debated here immediately afterwards, and even with the benefit of hindsight, we still do not know. I argued at the time (and still suspect) that such play is rarely beneficial long-term, but if any situations warrant selling out like Rowand did, The Catch was damn near one of them. It saved no fewer than three runs, which loomed larger due to a weather forecast that made completing the game highly unlikely. At the time, the Phillies were in the middle of a streak of hot play and their win that night placed them a mere three games behind the first place Mets. And Rowand, with all due respect, isn't the kind of hitter that your team is going to miss the way they would have missed losing an Abreu, Howard, or Utley for a long stretch, although one can argue that his loss significantly weakened the bench by moving Victorino into a starting role and giving the Nunezes, Fasanos, and A-Gons of the team more suboptimal at-bats in high-leverage situations.

Despite the emergence of Shane Victorino as a credible replacement at a much lower price, all indications are that Aaron Rowand is returning to the Phillies in 2006, at the very least as the right-handed part of a corner outfield platoon, but more likely as the team's starting centerfielder. His all-out style of play is well received in this city, but surely an elusive postseason berth would be even more appreciated.

Can Rowand stay healthy and productive enough to help them get there?

Poll

Worth it?

Yes

15 votes

No

19 votes

34 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs | Comment 19 comments

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Comments

Rowand Rebound

With Victorino in right field it will take some of the defensive pressure off Rowand.

IMO, trading Rowand, even for a 'middling' reliever, is a big mistake. His defense is a constant, and he'll save more runs with his defense than a "quality" reliever will with his pitching.

Will he rebound at the plate? If he can see the ball - yes.

Also, if Lopes can teach Victorino to steal there will be a triple threat on the bases ahead of the 4 and 5 hitters.

If the starting pitching does what it's supposed to do, and the bullpen doesn't get burned out the way it did last year, adding a couple of the FAs who are still available (check the list here: http://mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/mlb/news/hot_stove/y2006/free_agent_tracker.jsp?fastatus=all&subsc ope=pos&teamPosCode=E )and let them compete for a spot, they should be ok.

Alex H

by AWH on Dec 21, 2006 1:19 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

You've got it backwards

Victorino should be the starting center fielder. If Rowand isn't traded (which he should be), he should become a right fielder. Victorino is worlds better.

by David S. Cohen on Dec 21, 2006 8:30 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Still backwards

Rowand's arm in RF would be a 1st to 3rd liability, wouldn't it? Problem is, Rowand seems like a tweener. The team has better defensively for CF, Rowand doesn't produce like a corner outfielder, and where does he fit in the linup? Certainly not second. 6th? 7th? he's nto a bad player. he just really solve any of their needs, unless he hits like 2004 / pre-injury 2006 again.

by gr on Dec 21, 2006 10:28 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Arm

I think Rowand's arm in RF is less significant than the fact that Victorino is much faster and would cover the larger area of CF much better than Rowand. I'd rather see a player converting potential doubles into outs than preventing an opoosing player from going from 1st to 3rd.

Anyhow, I think Rowand is a lousy fit for this club right now. His prime role should be as a 4th OF/defensive replacement/pinch hitter. If we could get a lefty RF who can actually hit well (maybe Huff as some have suggested) than Rowand would be a good platoon type guy and backup for CF. Rowand (or Victorino) as the primary starter in RF is an absolute lousy idea.

That said, I think Rowand and Werth are somewhat superfluous (both being right handed hitters who are can play CF) and I like Werth more of the two.

by Laaaaazzz on Dec 21, 2006 1:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Outfield Alignment

If the Phillies are hell-bent on going defense-first in the outfield, I think the ideal alignment with current personnel is Rowand in left, Victorino in center and Burrell in right.

This minimizes the damage done by Rowand's rag arm, it puts the best and fastest defender in center, and it maximizes Burrell's strong arm. Also, Burrell's defensive weakness is mainly that he's slow; he doesn't really seem to misplay balls badly in general. So, given the speed and range of Rowand and Victorino, they could cheat towards right a little to make up for Burrell's sluggishness.

by phatj on Dec 21, 2006 7:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Furthermore

Werth cannot hurt himself sitting on the bench, can he? Let Rowand, Victo, and Werth duke it out for the two CF/RF spots and either you'll be ready for the injury that is damn near inevitable with that crew, or you deal from surplus for pitching toward the deadline.

by das411 on Dec 21, 2006 3:00 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

great writeup

I don't have much to say on this now that I didn't say back then (and honestly, I can't entirely remember what I said back then...), but this is fine work.

I'd still like to see Rowand dealt by Opening Day, Vic installed in CF, and some kind of job-sharing arrangement in right--maybe Werth and Trot Nixon.

by dajafi on Dec 21, 2006 10:01 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

wow

That was an interesting back-and-forth. Thanks for digging that up.

Even though we can continue to debate whether it was worth it or not, it really doesn't matter since the Phils didn't make the playoffs.

With Victorino available to replace Rowand last year (and with Bobby in right), I didn't see a problem with the play last year. However, this year, with Victorino again replacing Rowand in CF, that would leave a Werth/Conine platoon in right for however long Rowand would be out. I think I'd be less supportive of that play this year, due to the context of the situation.

by Alex Falzone on Dec 21, 2006 11:04 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Backwards, Frontwards and Sideways

Boy, there are some people here really down on Rowand. Lousy arm, not a good fit, can't play right because doesn't produce like a corner outfielder, etc., etc., etc.

I must say I disagree with the criticism, especially because many of you seem to be looking at him in an isolated fashion, and not within the makeup of the entire team. And nevermind that after three partial seasons you're ready to annoint Victorino with his lifetime .388 SLG the second coming of Willie Mays.

Outside of the obvious candidates (Griffey, Beltran, Jones, Edmonds), when healthy he's as productive at the plate as any other center fielder in the NL. A good comparison is with Mike Cameron as their career OPS is nearly identical, though Cameron rates modestly better defensively.

But, he is precisely a good fit here when you look at the overall makeup of the team.

Ideally, the power positions on any NL team are 1B, 3B, RF and LF. Power is viewed as less important up the middle as most teams will trade it for defense. On this team you had a 2B and SS combine for 57 HR last year, making up for any power deficiency at other positions. They outhomered everyone but Atlanta and Cinncinati and outscored both of those teams.

Rowand is on this team primarily for his defense which is above average. This pitching staff had an below average ERA last year and is going to need all the help it can get. Victorino fits better into right because of his plus arm. Besides, where is it a rule that your center fielder has to be faster than the other two. Cameron got stuck in right with the Mets despite having superior speed to Beltran.

Alex H

by AWH on Dec 22, 2006 1:29 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Straw

And nevermind that after three partial seasons you're ready to annoint Victorino with his lifetime .388 SLG the second coming of Willie Mays.

Show me where anyone lavishes that much praise on Victorino. I know that you're just trying to exaggerate to make a point, but at least personally, I regard Victorino as Aaron Rowand plus speed, minus a little power. Their games are very similar.

I would accept Rowand in center, but would prefer Victorino because he's cheaper, faster, probably a better fielder, has more upside, and a better arm. What I don't want is either of them starting in RF full time; you can find a guy (or two) who can field that position credibly and produce a lot more runs pretty easily.

The "we can afford to have weak hitters at the corner OF positions because we have such good hitting middle infielders" argument is bunk. Why not try to maximize your team's production at every turn? This is an opportunity for the team to excel, but instead you're suggesting that they accept mediocrity.

Corner outfielders who can post an .800 OPS (even in a platoon) are one of the easiest and most affordable ways to improve a team; it's not like they're trying to find a power hitting catcher or anything.

by WholeCamels on Dec 22, 2006 7:06 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

To me, it's all about defense

To me, the big difference with Rowand and Victorino is that Victorino is exceptional in the outfield. Rowand tries hard and looks good doing it, but I haven't seen anything (numbers or plays I see with my own eyes) making me think that it's anything more than that.

by David S. Cohen on Dec 22, 2006 11:32 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

i agree

vicorino has a cannon for an arm, which is amazing given his size. just based on that plus rowand's wild performance at times (the injuries, the ridiculous throws to the plate which are nowhere near the plate), victorino could be every bit the CF that rowand is and maybe more, that's all we're all trying to say.

by gr on Dec 22, 2006 12:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

"nowhere near the plate"

That's generous. Although, I guess if you include bouncing and not getting to the plate in that statement, I'd agree.

by David S. Cohen on Dec 22, 2006 12:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

the numbers differ

Would you be surprised to find that Rowand's career range factor in center field is slightly better than Victorino's?

Last year Shane's was a couple tiny ticks better, but it's possible that's not large enough of a sample for the numbers to be normalized.

I point this out not because I think Rowand is a better fielder (though at this point statistically you could make the argument he is). I don't. I just disagree that the dropoff is as cavernous as the rest of you seem to think.

That said, I believe the team is better off with both of them out there ON THE SAME TEAM. It will make the pitching staff better by giving them more confidence in their defense.

As far as offense is concerned, I love watching Victorino play. I think the most exciting play in baseball is the triple, and he'll hit a lot of them. HOWEVER, he's only had 505 career ABs. That's not even a full season for someone in the 2 hole. Why don't you let him demonstate that he can do it for a full season before you run Rowand out of town?

Alex H

by AWH on Dec 22, 2006 7:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Range factor is almost totally useless

It's highly dependent on the pitching staff, and since most of Rowand's career to date was played with Chicago, the comparison of Rowand's and Victorino's range factors is meaningless. Even on the same team, it's hard to make a meaningful comparison unless you can normalize it somehow.

by phatj on Dec 24, 2006 7:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Straw II

You're right - I was exaggerating to make a point.

You, however, did not address Victorino's relative inexperience (505 total AB at the major league level). I don't think it will happen, but there's a possibility he regresses at the plate if pitchers find a hole in his swing. If that happens and he's in right, you can play Werth and use him off the bench. I'm not willing to take the risk of having an offensive void in center field without an adequate alternative. Bourn is not ready and Roberson took a step back last year.

If Shane gets 600+ AB next year(Utley and Rollins both did) and has the kind of year he had this year it extrapolates like this:

625 AB
105 R
179 H
29 2B
12 3B
9 HR
69 RBI

If he's tracking this by the trade deadline and we have a RF better than Rowand offensively who's not a complete butcher defensively, then move Rowand. But not until then. I get the feeling (I could be wrong) that you underrate defense.

Whether Victorino is a cheaper alternative is only relevant if this parsimonious management uses the money elswhere. That's not a given.

And, please, don't twist what I wrote. I never implied that production shouldn't be maximized at every position. I simply pointed out that the Phils have more power in their infield than almost every other team. This team is never going to spend enough to be the Yankees.

Lastly, scoring was not the team's problem last year. Certain player could improve their RISP performance, but PITCHING is where they need help. If they fail to improve it beyond what they have today, a superior defensie outfield can make up for some of that deficiency.

Alex H

by AWH on Dec 22, 2006 8:04 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Different Point

Rowand is a FA in 2007 while we have Shane under our control for 5 more seasons. I know this doesnt fit the win today idea but Vic is our CF of the future, Rowand will be making tremendously more than Victorino over the next 5 years. Why not get value for him now if we he's going to walk in a season anyway.

by Bfitz on Dec 22, 2006 11:18 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

A different but good point

Agreed, but as I said, lets make sure Victorino is the real deal offensively, say for the first half of the season. It's impossible to say whether you'll get more for Rowand at the trade deadline than now, but I think it's worth the risk.

Besides, with Burrell in left, anyone in center is going to have to cheat towards left, and with Victorino in right with his speed and ability to play further from the line, Rowand is a plus in that regard.

Alex H

by AWH on Dec 23, 2006 12:10 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Do you have any data...

To backup that you think Burrell needs help in the smallish outfield the Phillies have?

by jonk on Dec 25, 2006 4:45 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The data

basically shows that up his RF9 is below the league average. The last couple of years show a slip in his other fielding stats as well, probably attributable to his foot problems.

I never thought he was a great fielder even when he was young and healthy, but he was certainly adequate, and does have a good arm which made up for his lack of speed.

Does he need help? If he's not healthy, IMO yes.

by AWH on Dec 26, 2006 11:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs