Top Stories of 2006 -- Cole Hamels Debuts

by WholeCamels on Dec 27, 2006 3:11 PM EST in News

There Is No Such Thing As A Pitching Prospect. TINSTAAPP. Read it, remember it, tattoo it to the inside of the eyelids. Never take an ascendant minor league pitcher's development for granted.

In the case of left-hander Cole Hamels, there were many reasonable minds who doubted he'd ever throw a pitch in a big league game. Drafted in the first round in 2002, Hamels fell to 17th overall due to concern about a broken left arm - a non-pitching injury that left many scouts wondering if the substantial risk of injury overwhelmed the whip-thin high schooler's obvious talent.

After absolutely dominating parts of three seasons in the minors and numerous injuries both pitching related and "extra-curricular," the Phillies decided to bump Hamels up to AAA-Scranton this April to see how he would fare against the tougher competition, having pimp-slapped two A-ball leagues in five early season starts. The results were astounding: 0.39 ERA in three starts, 23 innings, 36 strikeouts and one walk. Sufficiently impressed, Phillies management decided that Hamels had nothing left to prove on the farm, and he was promoted the Philadelphia to make his first start on May 12 against the Cincinnati Reds.

While not as dominant as he had been in the minors, Hamels gave fans a good indication of what to expect in the future: Seven strikeouts through five innings, one hit allowed, with five walks and a lot of deep counts marring his debut and possibly indicating a case of the jitters.

He was mostly solid to spectacular as the season progressed, making his mark on the league with dominant performances against the Mets and Cardinals late in the summer, and earning raves from opposing players, coaches, and scouts for his poise, talent, but most of all his nearly unhittable changeup, one of the very best in the game behind Johan Santana's and that of the vintage Pedro. A few clunker starts, a kitchen accident, and some uncharacteristic wildness elevated his ERA and rate stats, but overall Hamels left no doubt that he was an important part of the team's future.

Injuries remain a concern; he went on the 15-day DL in late May/early June due to arm soreness. But as Cole Hamels celebrates his 23rd birthday today, having made it through the minors and achieved some success in the bigs, every team in baseball wishes they could have taken a chance on the young lefthander.

Poll

Cole Hamels 2007 ERA...

Below 2.00

1 votes

2.00 - 2.99

5 votes

3.00 - 3.49

27 votes

3.50 - 3.99

13 votes

4.00 - 4.49

2 votes

4.50 - 4.99

0 votes

Above 5.00

0 votes

48 votes | Poll has closed

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Comments

My guess

175 IP, 3.16 ERA, 45 BB, 209 K

A Cy Young.

by FTN414 on Dec 27, 2006 5:07 PM EST reply actions

This year?

When was the last time a non-reliever with so few innings won a Cy?

I feel Cole is probably good for one somewhere down the line... just not next year.

by WholeCamels on Dec 27, 2006 6:00 PM EST up reply actions

I don't know

But I don't think the innings will be the issue. I think he's going to pitch over 200 innings, but I wanted to be cautious. If he goes 17-3 with a 3.16 ERA and 209 K's, I think he'll get plenty of Cy Young votes. Martinez won the Cy twice with 217 innings or less.

by FTN414 on Dec 27, 2006 7:27 PM EST reply actions

memories of the king

let's not forget outpitching clemens (basically) and getting the only hit off the rocket on labor day at home in front of a sellout crowd.

by gr on Dec 27, 2006 7:29 PM EST reply actions

Definitely

I was right behind home plate for that game. I always was a believer in Cole, but seeing it up close that day, seeing the look of dejection the Astros faces as they walked back to the dugout, I knew Cole was for real. I just pray to the gods that he can stay healthy.

by FTN414 on Dec 27, 2006 7:46 PM EST reply actions

More impressed

I was at the next Houston game he pitched (in Houston) and was more impressed with him after that game. I was worried that he was able to fool the Astros so much (no hitter through 5 2/3, 8 Ks, 0 BBs) because they had never seen him before. That wasn't the case. Cole looked even more dominant (although a bit more wild): 11 Ks, 4 BBs, no hitter through 6 2/3). I was very impressed that Cole was able to top himself against the same team in a short period of time.

Before the game, I watched him long toss with Jamie Moyer. As the game started, I told my wife to watch for his change-up. She likes me to explain the less obvious details of baseball when we watch live games together. I told her that she would know he threw the change when she saw the 'stros batters looking foolish. There were plenty of examples. I felt like I was watching the reincarnation of Steve Carlton.

by PhDave on Dec 27, 2006 8:45 PM EST reply actions

I'm impressed too, but...

does he need a third pitch to be successful long term? Are there any modern starters (post WWII) historically who have won 200 plus games who only had two pitches? If anyone knows the answer, let us know.

This begs the question:

Let's assume he develops a third and fourth pitch and stays reasonably healthy for the next 10-15 yrs. How many games does he win during that span?

How many does he win if he is not able to develop a reliable third pitch? Is his changeup THAT good?

by AWH on Dec 27, 2006 9:59 PM EST reply actions

His third pitch is like

Salma Hayek's acting ability.

It's irrelevant.

My fingers will be perma-crossed for his health, but IF he stays healthy, he's a stud.

In fact, Cole Hamels is so good that his changeup and fastball ARE his third pitch - he just doesn't think it's fair to use his first two.

by Shore on Dec 28, 2006 1:30 AM EST up reply actions

His 3rd pitch

His curve/slider/slurve was just a show-me pitch in 2006, but he never really needed it in the minors, and I'm sure as he throws it more, he'll get a better feel for it. The thing is, hitters know his changeup is coming, and they still can't hit it. I don't know if that will change over time, but I don't really think it will. Pedro Martinez made a career with a fastball and his circle change, same with Glavine and Maddux. Sure, they threw curveballs and sliders, but you always immediately think of the fastball/changeup combo. What will allow Hamels to "get away with it" is that his fastball has plus life, for a lefty, and he's able to just blow it by big league hitters. A guy who only throws 88-89 lives and dies more on his secondary pitches and probably needs that curveball a lot more. Hamels can dial it up to 94, which is a big weapon. Just my view..

by FTN414 on Dec 27, 2006 10:12 PM EST reply actions

His 3rd pitch

Good point. Thanks.

by AWH on Dec 28, 2006 7:48 AM EST up reply actions

best story of the season

Even when the Phils looked fried in June and July, Hamels was worth tuning in or showing up for.

The game I remember was at home against the Braves, when he'd struck out something like 10 guys through four innings and looked on pace to challenge the franchise record. Then the roof fell in on him in the fifth, with Adam LaRoche hitting his second homer of the night, and Cole didn't make it out of the inning. It was the clearest case of a supremely talented kid pitcher experiencing "growing pains" you'll ever see--and IIRC, after that game, he didn't have another real bad start all year aside from the one at Wrigley where he'd cut his hand that morning.

Already, he's the one guy I'd want on the mound to win a must-have game. In 30 years of following the Phils, only Lefty and Schilling ever gave me the same kind of confidence. So long as Hamels stays away from bagels and bar fights, he's likely to give us a lot of good times for years to come.

by dajafi on Dec 27, 2006 11:01 PM EST reply actions