Good rumors, for a change

by dajafi on Dec 5, 2006 12:02 PM EST in News

After weeks in which it seemed like the Phillies' only strategy was to further fill out the Bingo card, today's press reports from the Winter Meetings give some grounds for hope. Randy Miller posits two trade scenarios that, in my opinion, would dramatically strengthen the team:

Talks are preliminary, but Gillick was working on multiple deals that could pry top starter Freddie Garcia from the Chicago White Sox, plus reliever Derrick Turnbow and slugging outfielder Kevin Mench from the Milwaukee Brewers.

In the rumored deals, the Phils first would nab Garcia for center fielder Aaron Rowand and a pitcher, possibly reliever Ryan Madson or Triple-A starter Gavin Floyd.

If the Phils get Garcia, they'd immediately trade right-hander Jon Lieber, possibly to Milwaukee for Mench, a native of Delaware, and Turnbow, a one-time Phillies farmhand who lost his closer job after being named to the 2006 NL All-Star team.

I've been on the Rowand-for-Garcia train since the off-season began. Garcia's no ace, but he's a solid bet to give you 200 above-average innings and 14-17 wins, and Rowand back to the Sox makes a lot of sense. A Myers/Hamels/Garcia/Moyer/Eaton rotation probably would be good for 60-70 wins, and with Garcia a year from free agency on a $10 million contract, the Phils could either try to lock him up on a longer-term deal or, unless he melts down, probably recoup picks after 2007. The other great part of that scenario is that it seems increasingly clear the Phils will move either Rowand or Pat Burrell; there's little doubt in my mind which guy would be easier to replace, and Shane Victorino's bat plays vastly better in CF than it would in an outfield corner. While Madson or Floyd would be a good upside play for Kenny Williams, I'm not sure it would be happening for either of them in Philadelphia anyway.

The second half of the deal, moving Lieber to Milwaukee for Turnbow and Mench, almost strikes me as too good to be true. Both the guys coming back were terrible down the stretch in 2006; what a refreshing change to acquire guys at the nadir of their value rather than the peak. Turnbow's too wild at this point to serve as a regular closer, but I'm okay with him as a setup option, and Mench would be fine as a platoon outfielder in CBP.

I'm trying not to get too excited about these rumors, as memories of the great package we were getting for Bobby Abreu at different points still have a fresh sting. But speculating on these names is a lot more pleasant than the usual rash of Borowksis and Barajases.

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Comments

Mench

As you say, Mench would need to be paired with a left-handed hitter, but it has the makings of a strong platoon. His past 3 years against lefties: .307/.379/.590. Trot Nixon is the name that comes to mind first, but the Red Sox offered him arbitration. He's only a type B free agent, though.

by enterpsmith on Dec 5, 2006 2:28 PM EST reply actions

Nixon

I'm pretty sure the Sox didn't offer him arbitration, per this list. Agree that Mench/Nixon would be a solid platoon, though I suspect they'd cost more than teams are generally willing to spend for two guys at one position. If not Nixon, there are other options--I still think Aubrey Huff would look good in our lineup, though he'd probably bring an even bigger price tag than Trot.

by dajafi on Dec 5, 2006 2:32 PM EST up reply actions

My mistake.

I guess i only heard the "contrary indications."

In any event, I don't know why more teams don't use these types of platoons.

by enterpsmith on Dec 5, 2006 2:56 PM EST up reply actions

correct

Nixon was not offered arbitration. Link.

by taco pal on Dec 5, 2006 2:57 PM EST up reply actions

dear white sox

please take gavin floyd over madson. please please please please please please please please please please please please.

by gr on Dec 5, 2006 2:32 PM EST reply actions

floyd

I wouldn't be surprised to see him succeed with a change of scenery - he wouldn't be the first guy. But I don't think it'll happen without a change of scenery, and we have plenty of other prospects. It would be the best thing for both the Phillies and for Floyd.

by taco pal on Dec 5, 2006 2:53 PM EST up reply actions

ok seriously

i like the approach of these deals, i think they would improve the team, especially by adding garcia, who at $10 mil, is actually below the market value for starting pitching right now (padilla/$11 mil). as mentioned above, mench is a nice add if they get someone like nixon for a platoon (with each being a good bat off the bench when the other's in the lineup).

the piece i don't like is turnbow. in theory, this is the player we're searching for, low sale value, closer experience. but if we replace madson with turnbow, we've haven't improved an iota and still have the same need for one or two more arms. looking at turnbow's career stats, he's never actually been good, except for 2005. his '03 and '04 seasons at AAA weren't particularly good and last year he was on par with arthur rhodes in crapitude. i look at him and i want to see tim worrell 1994. unfortunately, all i can see is todd worrell 2004.

by gr on Dec 5, 2006 2:48 PM EST reply actions

worrell?

Hopefully he won't be as bad as Todd Worrell 2004 seeing as how Todd W. retired in 1997. But surely we can shoot higher than Tim Worrell 1994, when he only pitched 15 innings. :P

by taco pal on Dec 5, 2006 2:56 PM EST up reply actions

damn

i knew i'd mix them up. self-fulfilling prophesy.

by gr on Dec 5, 2006 4:32 PM EST up reply actions

garcia for rowand & floyd

I'm fine with this move.

Lieber for Mench & Turnbow? Not so thrilled with this one, and I'm no fan of Lieber.

I rate Garcia over Lieber, but that's about it. Mench is nothing great outside of Arlington; he lacks plate discipline (notice is career OPS is 112 points higher at home) and isn't a great fielder. So by moving Rowand, you're inserting Mench into the starting lineup. I really don't see that as any more than a wash.

If it's Madson in the deal instead of Floyd, I'd rather hold onto Ryan than bring back Turnbow.

All in all, I like the idea of upgrading from Lieber to Garcia, but I don't really see how it improves the team all that much.

by Alex Falzone on Dec 5, 2006 3:18 PM EST reply actions

You aren't really looking at right

You are replacing Rowand's bat with Victorino's in CF and Victorino's with Mench's in RF. Probably both upgrades for those respective positions, especially if Mench is one half of a platoon. A Victorino/Rowand outfield would be seriously lacking in pop.

Plus, wouldn't CBP have more in common with Arlington than Miller Park?

Bleeding Green Nation Philadelphia Eagles Blog

by JasonB on Dec 5, 2006 3:50 PM EST up reply actions

Steroid crew

If Gillick is serious about acquiring Turnbow, then he obviously doesn't see past steroid use as a problem in the players he acquires (with Franklin being acquired earlier this year as well). So, then, why not Bonds?

by David S. Cohen on Dec 5, 2006 4:11 PM EST reply actions

Jose Capellan not Turnbow

The Latest on this story has Jose Capellan tied to a return for Lieber and not Turnbow. This has to be good as even though Turnbow throw's gas he cant throw strikes, his MLB record for BB/9 is 5.35, which is just plain awful. He's a younger Farnsworth and not worth the headache. Capellean on the other hand has tons of potential.

by Bfitz on Dec 5, 2006 7:20 PM EST reply actions

If he "has tons of potential"

Why would the Brewers give him and Mench up for Lieber?

Bleeding Green Nation Philadelphia Eagles Blog

by JasonB on Dec 5, 2006 8:25 PM EST up reply actions

Rumor killed

From today's winter meetings wrap via MLB.COM:

"He's a Mench: The Phillies and Brewers had pondered a potential trade involving pitcher Jon Lieber and Brewers outfielder Kevin Mench, but the two teams couldn't find a fit."

And the Sox signed Drew to a 5 year deal. Let the Manny rumors go through the roof!

by PhoenixPhilly on Dec 5, 2006 8:40 PM EST reply actions

undead

Evidently Salisbury was on Philly talk radio just about an hour ago and said the deal was verbally agreed upon, but contingent on the Phils making a separate trade with the White Sox in which the principals would be Rowand and one of their starters (presumably Garcia).

Odds probably remain that nothing happens. But picking up Capellan would be pretty sweet.

by dajafi on Dec 6, 2006 12:18 AM EST up reply actions

White Sox Trade, Why it could fall apart

I still think Minaya will offer Milledge for Garcia or Vazquez and that deal makes more sense because they would have him under control for 6 years and I think Zito is going to Texas because they will vastly overpay for what really is a #3 starter.. Although I like him as a player, Rowand isnt a top tier CF with a subpar OBA and is only a year from FA. But ken Williams and White Sox nation has a soft spot for him so hopefully emotions will overtake a common sense deal for other clubs involved. and Victorino is a better defensive center fielder minus all the DL time.

by Bfitz on Dec 6, 2006 12:55 AM EST reply actions

So the net is

Rowand, Floyd/Madson, and Lieber

for

Garcia, Mench, and Turnbow/Capellan.

The only reason this is not a complete wash is the different names on the backs of the uniforms, and in Rowand's case on his face as well.

by das411 on Dec 6, 2006 2:12 AM EST reply actions

One not two

I like the first part of the trade. Getting Garcia for Rowand and Floyd (preferably) would be a great trade for the Phils. It is the second part of the trade I don't like. Getting only a player who is very similar to Rowand back (career stats are very similar) as well as an non-closing reliever doesn't seem to be enough for a starting pitcher. Yes, we need an outfielder, but there are still Mench-type guys available on the FA market. Who would say that Lieber for Turnbow or Capellan was a good deal?

Get Garcia from the White Sox and then sit in the cat-bird's seat (what the heck is a cat-bird's seat anyway?) as the offers roll in from around the league for your extra starter.

by PhoenixPhilly on Dec 6, 2006 2:43 AM EST reply actions

I kinda think this makes the most sense

After the Zitos and Schmidts go off the market... Leiber could become a more valuable property. I'd rather trade him then.

Also, holding onto the guy might not be the worst idea at least until the trade deadline. I think it's fair to assume that injuries will be a concern on a staff of Eaton, Hamels, & a 40 year old.

Bleeding Green Nation Philadelphia Eagles Blog

by JasonB on Dec 6, 2006 9:48 AM EST up reply actions

People Lisetn

!) Mench is more valuable than Rowand because he will be under the Phils control for 3 years while Rowand is a year away from free agency where he will probably get a 5/$55 million deal. Over the next 3 years we will pay Mench and Victorino about $15 million total.

Garcia is a far better pitcher than Lieber
our AAA rotation of Sergovia, Happ and Gonzalez will help plug injury holes if and when eaton goes down
gavin Floyd has given me an ulcer

by Bfitz on Dec 6, 2006 4:08 PM EST reply actions

i like mench better too, but...

anyone who gives $55 million to Aaron Rowand needs to be sent to the nearest mental institution

by taco pal on Dec 6, 2006 4:13 PM EST up reply actions

Agreed

I agree that $55 is way too much but look at what much lesser players such as Juan pierre and Sarge Jr are getting, although there will be a glut of talented center fielders on the market next year (Jones Hunter Wells)

by Bfitz on Dec 6, 2006 4:54 PM EST reply actions