A Plea for 6 Starters - Part II
For those of you who say that we should have five starters and then act when and if one of them gets hurt, I present to you the fictional wives of our 5 starters. Again, these are fictional wives! They represent the likelihood of each player making the weekly poker game and also are a reflection of how well they will play when at the table.

Brett Myers' wife is probably the best bet to allow her husband free reign to attend the weekly poker game. He makes almost every game (30+ GS for 4 years) and is now considered the best player at the table.
Jamie Moyer's wife is the second best bet to allow Jamie to play poker on a regular basis. Early in your friendship with Jamie, his wife was straight nuts. You didn't know when he would come out and how he would play. But, since they moved to Seattle together, he's been a sure bet to come to the weekly game (6+ seasons of 30+ GS). She is approaching menopause, which will put him out of commission soon. You hope it won't set in this year or next.
Jon Lieber has had an interesting marriage. He had a major fight with his wife in late 2002 that kept him out of the game until 2004. Sometimes, having a fight like that is good for a marriage and your buddy is even more fun when they straighten things out. In Jon's case, however, he has chosen to deal with his relationship problems by overeating. The question now is whether he can spend the time it will take with his wife to work out their issues or whether he will take the easy way out, let her nag him and stuff his face with ice cream to mask the problem. Since he's been playing in your game, he's been a good player for the big money rounds late in the evening. (Best ERA in Aug-Oct)
You don't really know Adam Eaton's wife that well. He was your friend in high school and then he moved away and got married. He just moved back to the area, so you invited him to be a part of your weekly game. You have mutual friends that tell you that he has been an erratic participant in his San Diego game. His play has been inconsistent as well. One week he'll win it all and the next he'll be the first one out. You brought him into your game more for his future potential than his past success. (#2 & #3 comps through age 28 are Westbrook and Schmidt and his #1 comp is your friend Brett Myers)
Cole Hamels wife is HOT! In fact, she may be the hottest woman you have ever seen. She has it all, looks, personality and money. You met her last year when Cole first started to come to the games and fell in love. As for Cole, he always brings beer, bets and wins a lot and is only getting better. What has you worried is Cole's stories about his wife's personality in high school and college. Evidently, she was a total psycho bitch. She would always be calling him, yelling and accusing him of cheating. He missed a lot of weekly poker games with his old friends back then. How often does a girl like that change into an angel?
The chances of these five guys all making the game every week seem pretty small to me. You know there is NO doubt that they won't ALL make it EVERY week. But for that, a few of the guys have brothers they can invite and you think they might be okay to fill in for a week. Even if they don't play really well, it will be good for them to get out of the house. You can see if they can play and they can learn a bit from the old pros. Basically, every one of the players has a younger brother they can invite (Justin, Gavin, J.A., Zack and Eude).
What has you excited (in a non-homoerotic way) is that you heard that there is a pretty darn good poker player that might move to your town. He makes the game almost every week (7/8 years of 30+ GS) and plays great in big-money games (6-2, 3.11 postseason). The thing is that (now I'm reaching) one of your friend's brothers really hates him, so you would have to cut ties with him (Gavin). You like Gavin's game, but he has let you down in the past and you're not sure if he'll ever get his act together. You would also have to get rid of the wings that everyone munches on in order to make room for this new guy. You have to have food at the game, but you think you can get some different and maybe even better food at the store before the next game.
With this guy, you are pretty sure you will always have 5 guys at the table. You may have 6 some games, but with the wives you are dealing with, that is doubtful. It's more likely you'll still have to have a buddy call their brother some weeks in order just to have a fifth. The question is, can you find more food and another lamp (reliever) before your next game? After all, good friends are really hard to come by these days. Especially those with cool wives. But then again, how would poker be when you can't see the cards and are hungry the whole game?
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Comments
Love the analogy
I agree with the premise, in theory. If you can swing it, having six major-league-quality starters to begin a season is a huge plus. But how to make it work? Would you propose running a six-man rotation until and unless one gets hurt? That could work.
Because you'd have to cut back the bullpen in order to make room for the extra starter, you might have to ask the starters to pitch out of the pen occasionally in lieu of side work. (This actually is something I wish teams actually did, even with five-man rotations.)
Also, you didn't mention (because I imagine it didn't work with the metaphor) that getting Garcia will take a little more than just Floyd. Not that Rowand+Floyd is a price I'd object to.
by phatj on Dec 6, 2006 7:30 PM EST 0 recs
Trade
Yes, I was running out of steam at the end.
by PhoenixPhilly on
Dec 6, 2006 7:35 PM EST
up
0 recs
Logistics
As far as the logistics when everyone is healthy, I think one of them would be best out of the bullpen so you can have a six man bullpen plus the "extra" starter in there. This leaves the same number of bench players as a team would usually have. When only five of the six starters are healthy, I think you would bring up one of the minor league guys to be in the bullpen.
It's just so seldom that everyone is healthy and playing well that I don't think putting a guy in the bullpen would last that long. I think it would be more of a pride factor than anything. That is one reason I really liked the idea of Batista in the pen. Not so much as a setup guy, but a guy who can come in from the pen and give you 3+ innings a stretch, so you don't have to use a lot of guys to patch a game together.
I'm more worried that 2 of our starters will go down for long periods of time next year than having 6 healthy starters.
The argument can really come down to how much faith you have in the guys you bring up to provide quality innings. I think I showed in the post, however, that it is very difficult to quantify what you have in the minors and therefore difficult to predict future success in the major leagues.
Another point is the number of arms projected to be ready to hit the majors in 08. You are looking at Germano, Gonzalez, Happ, Segovia and Mathieson who all might deserve some sort of shot. Even if we kept 6 starters and lost Garcia and Lieber at the end of the season, there is a good chance they would both be Type A FAs, giving us some 1st round picks and the opportunity to fill the 5th or 4th and 5th spots with one or two of those young men. Garcia is a lock to be a Type A and if we do trade him (assuming we get him), I think of the trade as not only trading him for Mench and a reliever, but Garcia and two high picks for Mench and a reliever. That doesn't sound so good to me.
by PhoenixPhilly on Dec 6, 2006 7:56 PM EST 0 recs
You fished your wish!
I love the data you presented here (or rather, in Part 1) with the Phils over the last five years. It seems that the difference between the good staffs and the bad has less to do with having a quality "ace" or some such ESPN-analyst nonsense than having solid 3, 4, and 5 options. If you can effectively limit (or, with luck, eliminate) the spot starts by replacement-level AAA guys, your team will have much more pitching success over the course of 162 games. The mind boggles at what the Phils could have done this year if they hadn't thrown away so many starts on the Madson/Floyd experiment...I mean, 28 starts at an ERA well over 6 effectively means conceding every 5th game of the season. Anyway, it would be interesting to run this same kind of analysis on every major league staff over the last 5 years to see if the trend holds true everywhere. You really may be on to something with your 6 starters idea.
That said, if you were the GM right now, would you keep Lieber and use him as a 5th through 7th inning kind of reliever and a spot starter until one of the 5 gets injured (not unlikely at all, given standard distribution of injury and the particularly likelihood of injury for Eaton and Moyer)? His price is hefty for that role, but thinking in terms of what we'd get in return (Mench and Turnbow seems optimistic to me, but we'll stick with that assumption for now) in a trade, would you rather have:
An outfield of Rowand/Victorino/Burrell/Mench, 5 decent starters, and Turnbow as a setup man/potential closer, OR
An outfield of Rowand/Victorino/Burrell and 6 decent starters, with Lieber as a plus long reliever?
If these are the only two options, I'd prefer the first, but I still think there are some more creative OF options out there, particularly if we can trade Rowand. Or, if we were able to get, say, Trot Nixon to fill out a Rowand/Victorino/Burrell/Nixon OF, I'd be fine with that to compliment six solid starting pitching options, given the potent offensive contributions we get from our infield.
But back to the 6 starters idea, I wonder what the potential value of having a really solid, reliable long reliever could be. I think it's potentially very high, as it gives the manager more confidence to pull a tanking or ineffective starter early in the game (say, the 2nd, 3rd, or 4th inning) and keep potential blowouts competitive. This is even more true if that solid, reliable long reliever can also eat up the starts that end up going to AAA guys.
by BRich on Dec 7, 2006 1:27 AM EST 0 recs
If I were the GM right now...
I think the decision who to put "in the bullpen" might have more to do with not damaging a players' psyche rather that what might be best for the team. As we know, pitchers need confidence. You don't want to break that. That said, I don't know enough about the guys to make a good prediction of what would work. I think the coaches could though. I can throw out an idea.
If you look at the career splits for Jamie Moyer and Jon Lieber, they tend to pitch well during opposite times of the season. Lieber pitches well at the beginning and the end of the season and Moyer towards the middle of the season. Why not start Moyer in the bullpen? He would have a 4/5 chance of coming in following a RHP and would create many less favorable matchups for the opposition that way. Presumably, he would be coming in earlier in the game, so if the opposition switched their lineup a bit, they would have less late-game options against your lefty or righty specialists.
As far as your options, I would prefer the first as well, but I don't think that is the choice we are faced with. Huff is still out there. Preston Wilson is out there. Nixon is still out there. We should at LEAST hold Lieber until the FAs sign and the teams who didn't get one are a bit more desperate.
by PhoenixPhilly on Dec 7, 2006 12:59 PM EST 0 recs
previous history in relief
Jamie Moyer - 53 games (2 1987, 4 1988, 23 1990, 1 1991, 9 1995, 13 1996, 1 2004); 108 IP / 50 ER / 4.17 ERA / 72 SO / 48 BB / 12 HR (interesting note: his reliever ERA and starter ERA are identical)
Jon Lieber - 47 games (9 1995, 36 1996, 1 1997, 1 1998); 64.1 IP / 25 ER / 3.50 ERA / 47 SO / 14 BB / 10 HR
just presenting these numbers as FYI. I happen to agree in theory that switching someone to long relief is a good idea; especially with our staff it seems inevitable that someone will go down for an extended period of time. I'm just not sure how we could do it effectively. I don't know what Eaton's "stuff" is like, but I'm not so sure that Lieber or Moyer, between their relatively advanced ages and their general style of pitching, would be good candidates to become relievers, even if it's only temporarily.
by perfectdepth on Dec 7, 2006 3:58 PM EST 0 recs
Probably Moot
From the Pravda (if I may steal that term).
What are the chances of opening Spring Training with six starters?
"I think the odds are small," Arbuckle said. "I think we report to Clearwater hopefully with a better bullpen."
What are the chances you'll have six starters by Christmas?
"Probably not great," Arbuckle said. "If we were to send out Christmas presents, we probably would only need to send five to starting pitchers. I don't know about this week, but probably sometime over the next 10 days to two weeks [a move will be made]."
by PhoenixPhilly on Dec 7, 2006 7:35 PM EST 0 recs
Guys
We trade Lieber to Houston for RHP Dan Wheeler, Luke Scott, and RHP AA Troy Patton (He's decent)
Adam Eaton has his right arm ripped off by a polar Bear at the Philly Zoo the 3rd week of April.
We Fly up to Ottawa and visit our Buddies, RHP Zach Segovia, LHP JA Happ, and newly acquired RHP Try Patton.
We pick the one thats most ready for the show and we insert him in the rotation.
Flash Gordron then breaks his Hip following off his Jazzy Scooter at home.
We Insert Wheeler in as closer.
Now Im sure Eaton and Gordon wont be injured in this fashion, but I agree that both could hot the DL and the chances IMO are better than 50/50 that will happen this season. So I like having a backup closer and Arms ready to go at AAA then having Lieber being a fat set up man who is in a bad mood because hes in the Pen and Geary as our closer. Just my view of things
by Bfitz on Dec 11, 2006 5:11 PM EST 0 recs










