Phils' 2006 Road Park Factors

With the 2006 schedule up, we can look at road park factors for the coming year to see what the Phils are in store for when they leave the (slightly modified) cozy confines of CBP.  And, predictably, it's pretty much more of the same for the Phils - an offense propped up at home and stifled away.

Below are the Phils' road park factors for 2005 and 2006:

2005 2006
RPF RPF
R 0.98 R 0.98
H 0.99 H 0.99
2B 0.99 2B 1.00
HR 0.95 HR 0.96
BB 1.00 BB 1.00
SO 1.01 SO 1.01

As you can see, nothing really changes over the 2006 road schedule.  The NL away schedule is pretty much the same in 2006 (one extra game each in Washington, Los Angeles, and Chicago; one less game each in New York, Colorado, and Pittsburgh).  Interleague games switch from Oakland and Seattle to Boston and Toronto, both much better hitters parks.  However, those six games don't affect the numbers that much over the course of 81 games.

Comparing the road park factors for 2006 to the Phils' home park factor shows the following:

2006
RPFc
R -12.0%
H -5.2%
2B -2.4%
HR -20.0%
BB -2.4%
SO -4.9%

So, in the upcoming year, we can expect the same perceived offensive problems on the road that we saw this year:  a 12% decrease in runs on the road, a 5% decrease in hits, a 2% decrease in doubles, a 20% decrease in home runs, a 2% decrease in walks, and a 5% decrease in strikeouts.

Smart fans will see this difference on the road and understand that, as long as it's not too much more pronounced than predicted here, it's not the Phillies, it's the parks.

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