Rotation, Rotation, Rotation

by Alex Falzone on Mar 30, 2006 1:12 PM EST in News Comment 6 comments

Sometime this morning, the NOAA recorded a large gust of hot air emanating from the Philadelphia region. What does this have to do with baseball, you ask? Well, it was likely due to the collective sighs of relief breathed out by the area's Phillies' phans, upon seeing this article in today's Inquirer. Aptly titled "Floyd likely to make Phils' rotation," the article gives us the following nugget:

The Phillies offered a blueprint of their pitching staff yesterday, and barring a trade or late addition, Gavin Floyd will be on the team.

The 23-year-old Floyd is expected to join Ryan Madson in the rotation this season.

Ryan Franklin is expected to move to the bullpen.

If this is true, let me be the first to thank Gillick for not trying to force anyone's hand here and keep his FA acquisition in the lineup. I'm personally much more comfortable with giving Floyd a chance than in recreating a CBP version of Home Run Derby with Franklin on the mound. Now I know that Floyd struggled mightily last year, but let's remember that he's still only 23, and he seems to have finally gotten the "Kerrigan" mechanics changes out of his head, which anecdotally seemed to cause his prospectdom to drop.

Franklin seems a perfect fit for the long reliever role, which allows Tejeda to go to AAA and start rather than waste away in the bullpen with the big club. It also ends the ridiculous notion of Madson going back into the bullpen just because they didn't have a 7th inning guy. This development, in my humble opinion, shores up both the bullpen and the rotation.

Also, let's compare the Mets' rotation to the Phils', since most analysts, fans, etc. have already conceded the division to them.

Pedro
Glavine
Zambrano (not the good one)
Trachsel
Bannister

Is that a better rotation than that of the Phils? I don't see it. Heilman seems to be stuck in the Ed Wade-era Ryan Madson role, in that he'd obviously help the team more in the rotation, but since he's proven he's valuable in the 'pen, the team is reluctant to switch him.

Granted, a rotation of

Lieber
Myers
Lidle
Madson
Floyd

is nothing to write home about, but other than Pedro, I'd take any of the Phils' starters over any of the Mets'.

My role for making this Mets comparison is in no way to denigrate the Mets' rotation, but simply to say that I think moving Franklin to the bullpen and having Floyd start is really going to strengthen the Phils overall. A move like this really limits the chances of a Paul Abbott-type situation. And while I have been unimpressed with Gillick's overall moves since taking charge, his penchant to stockpile alternatives (Franklin, Nunez, Gonzalez) is a nice change from what we're used to, even if the alternatives themselves aren't very appealing.

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Doing the Right Thing

I think this is great for the team. I don't care much for spring training stats, but if there's one time to use them, it's in judging development by a prospect moving up the chain. Spring stats should not convince you that a veteran who is terrible is suddenly good, so I'm glad the team hasn't been convinced of Franklin's worth based on his spring success.

But, maybe Floyd's spring shows he's coming around? At worst, they mean nothing, but Floyd still has much more upside that Franklin. With Franklin meeting CBP, we know there's a trainwreck waiting to happen. With Floyd, we can hope his prospectdom shines through.

All that said, I'd rather still have Padilla in the rotation with Floyd dominating AAA.

by David S. Cohen on Mar 30, 2006 1:16 PM EST reply actions

Braves vs. Phillies rotations

Not everyone is picking the Mets, so let's compare the other contender to the Phillies.

Smoltz vs. Myers -- close to a push. I don't think Smoltz can duplicate his terrific numbers from last year, with no Mazzone, at his age and I think Myers will build slightly on last year.
Hudson vs. Lieber -- again, close to a push. I think Hudson did it with smoke and mirrors last year, and I don't think he can repeat either. Elsewhere I have predicted a bit of a decline from Lieber, but not by much.
Thompson vs. Lidle -- two peas in a pod, these guys. Thompson has the been slightly better in his career, so he gets the nod, but it could go either way.
Sosa vs. Madson -- edge Madson. Sosa was incredibly lucky last year, and his security blanket is gone now.
Ramirez vs. Floyd -- tough call. As I indicated in an earlier posting, I'm not really high on Floyd. But then, Ramirez isn't very good either. The best case scenario is a big edge to Floyd; worst case is a slight edge to Ramirez.

Pretty even overall.

by phatj on Mar 30, 2006 1:26 PM EST reply actions

Umm..NO

Lieber vs. Hudson a push?

ERA+ (park adjusted) since Hudson came into the league in 1999:

Hudson 149 114 129 156 158 133 125
Lieber 119 97 111 109 (INJ) 104 108

No, sorry. Hudson may not be the top 5 pitcher he was in 2002 and 2003, but there is really no comparison. Oh, and he is 6 years younger.

Smoltz vs. Myers a push?

Last year (Smoltz obviously had a far better ERA+ prior to last year)
Smoltz 144
Myers 122

Obviously, Smoltz has a greater chance of breaking down but has a MUCH more secure track record.

by kdon on Mar 30, 2006 5:38 PM EST up reply actions

Rotation comparisons

I'm predicting huge things from Lieber, Myers, and Madson this year. I think each could have ERAs under 3.50 and win 15+ games. If things go right, Myers could have an ERA closer to 2.50, and Madson 3.00. I think they'll be the best threesome in the NL this year. You can book it.

by David S. Cohen on Mar 30, 2006 1:28 PM EST reply actions

new three-headed monster

the biggest thing about the move is that there are now 3 spots in the rotation with very good potential. lieber and lidle, we pretty much know what to expect and they won't deviate from that too much. both are 4+ ERA types who yield alot of hits but not many walks, and should, if healthy, combine for 30 wins. but myers has potential for another big leap while madson and floyd can both be pleasant surpises, perhaps combining for close to another 30 wins. the team gets 75 wins out of its rotation, it should win 90 games and the division. that's really what the season hinges on -- how well the rotation hangs together. its expecting alot from the new guys, but the way the team and the division are set up, that's what its going to take.

by gr on Mar 30, 2006 3:58 PM EST reply actions