If Only: Rollins, OBP, and Runs

by David S. Cohen on Jun 7, 2006 10:08 AM EDT in News

Jimmy Rollins says his job is to score runs, not get on base. This year, he certainly is abiding by his self-imposed job description, as he is tied for third in the majors for runs scored as a leadoff hitter, but is 22nd in on-base percentage out of the 25 hitters with more than 150 plate appearances at leadoff.

How is Jimmy's reluctance to see getting on base as central to his job hurting the Phillies? Let's take a look.

So far this season, Jimmy has been on base to be driven in 76 times. As a leadoff hitter, he has 54 non-home-run hits, 20 walks, and 2 hit by pitches. Of those 76 times on base, Jimmy has scored 40 runs (the other 5 he's scored this year have been from his home runs). That comes to a 52.6% run scoring rate for Rollins. Let's call this figure the on-base success rate, or OBS for short.

Jimmy's 52.6% OBS is second for all leadoff hitters, trailing only Hanley Ramirez, who has a 53.1% OBS. Rollins' high rate of coming around to score once on base makes sense, as he hits in front of the best RBI foursome in baseball: Utley, Abreu, Burrell, and Howard. (Ramirez's high OBS, on the other hand, makes a lot less sense, given that the only real powerhouse hitting behind him is Miguel Cabrera.)

With such a high OBS, it is true that Jimmy is scoring a lot of runs. But, he could be doing so much better. If he had a league average on-base percentage for a leadoff hitter (at .357 for all leadoff hitters with more than 150 plate appearances this year), he would have scored 5 more runs to date, and about 15 more runs for the year. That's roughly 1.5 more wins for the team if Rollins performed like an average leadoff hitter. If he somehow elevated his game to an excellent .375-ish OBP, along the lines of Rickie Weeks or David Eckstein, Rollins would have scored another 8 runs, or about 24 on the season.

Most baseball analysts and fans know that the Phils' run scoring is not their biggest problem; their starting pitching is. However, as we've preached here from the beginning, with the pitching as inconsistent as it is, the team needs to score as many runs as it can. The best way to do that is to get on base for Utley, Abreu, Burrell, and Howard to knock in. That Jimmy Rollins doesn't understand that is baffling.

Regardless of how many runs he actually has scored with his .309 OBP this year, he could be doing so much better.

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playing this out...

In 263 plate appearances (241 AB plus 20 walks plus 2 HBP; I'm not worrying about sacrifices), Rollins' .309 OBP means he's reached base 82 times (60 hits plus 20 walks plus 2 HBP).

If his OBP were .350, he'd have reached 91.35 times. Assuming the same OBS rate (love that, btw), that's about 5 more runs.

The Phils have lost, I think, 11 one-run games through 58 games this year. So, yeah, I think it's fair to say that Jimmy's bad approach at the plate--at least for a leadoff guy--has hurt the club.

by dajafi on Jun 7, 2006 1:46 PM EDT reply actions

Your stats

Your stats are for his complete season; mine are for his at-bats as the #1 hitter. Regardless, they get to the same place: if he worked on patience (and was successful!), we'd have a much better offense given who hits behind him.

by David S. Cohen on Jun 7, 2006 1:52 PM EDT up reply actions

d'oh

You're right, of course. Still, the point pretty much holds.

by dajafi on Jun 7, 2006 2:31 PM EDT up reply actions

Well said

Although I don't blame JRoll for a little healthy self-delusion. If I was as bad as JRoll at getting on base, I'd probably tell myself that it wasn't part of my job, either.

One wonders how may more runs we'd score with, say Youkilis, as our leadoff guy.

by pawnking on Jun 7, 2006 1:47 PM EDT reply actions

Missing a point

These are numbers that are applied if this were to occur in a vacuum. In the real world, they don't, and if Jimmy got on base at a high rate, well, some of those games wouldn't be over because we haven't accounted for who will make his subsequent outs.

Not only is he on base more and thus, able to be driven home more often, he is also giving other players a chance to get on base as well. We all know this as true, but it is ignored in the basic premise here. The end result actually creates more runs than just the ones that Jimmy scores.

by jonk on Jun 8, 2006 6:30 PM EDT reply actions

Correct

So, if he makes fewer outs, not only would he score more, but the team would score more too above and beyond Jimmy's extra runs.

by David S. Cohen on Jun 8, 2006 7:48 PM EDT up reply actions

This guy is way off base.

For one his OBP as a leadoff hitter is .318. 2nd the avg for NL leadoff hitter OBP is .335. 3rd he makes no reference that Eckstien leads the league in OBP has great hitters behind him, but scores less runs.

Someone just wrote how the Phils lost 11 1-runs games. But what if his OBP were higher but only in blowout games. Couldn't Abreu maybe take the bat off his shoulders and hit instead of walking. How about the fact missing, he has been on base in 47 out of 59 games, scored in 35 of 59 games, and he has been on base 17 out of the last 19 games, Scored in the last 7 games in a row. As a leadoff hitter, Rollins is 4th in hits, 7th in walks (2 away from 4th) . What more do you people want BLOOD

by Philsin06 on Jun 9, 2006 6:02 AM EDT reply actions

Rollins v. Eckstein

Rollins has four guys hitting immediately following him who are All-Star quality - all with .900+ OPS, great power, and above-average to amazing out-avoidance skills. Eckstein has one All-Star, one superhuman player who is now on the DL for a month plus, one over-the-hill former-All-Star, and a bunch of outmakers, including Juan Encarnacion, Mr. Out himself. There is no comparison at all here.

Putting the overall point another way: Rollins has been successful at scoring lots of runs, but his success has come from the excellent performance of those who follow him in the order. If he would just contribute a bit more on his end by avoiding outs at a better rate (aka, getting on base more), he would be that much more successful.

by David S. Cohen on Jun 9, 2006 10:37 AM EDT up reply actions

RE: Rollins v. Eckstein

Aren't the Phils in last place with batting with RISP?

by Philsin06 on Jun 9, 2006 10:01 PM EDT up reply actions

RISP?

When is Rollins ever in scoring position? He scores on exra base hits or homers.

by jonk on Jun 12, 2006 11:26 AM EDT up reply actions

Really

Has nothing to do with him starting out on 2nd base 30 times out of the 77 he was on base. Thats %40 of the time he puts himself in scoring. The facts are there JUST open up the mind a litte. Look at the whole picture then just an OBP. Utley didnt even bat 2nd the whole year and Rowand was hitting much better out of the 2nd spot then he is right now. Just more proof how players arent hitting as good after leaving Rollins. Look at Utley when he is hitting 2nd then any spot in the order.

by Philsin06 on Jun 12, 2006 9:21 PM EDT up reply actions

Also Cohen refuses to point out that

As a leadoff hitter, None one and NO outs.

.297 BA and a .350 OBP.<<<<<<Starting an inning or starting the game. Thats pretty good. His problem is with 2 outs. Look who is hitting in front of him. If you people want to bash somebody get ALL of the facts not just the one that proves YOUR point.

by Philsin06 on Jun 9, 2006 6:14 AM EDT reply actions

Good

You're right - Rollins is good. But, he could be better. First, the stats I used were from the day I wrote it, not the day you posted your comment. That accounts for the difference. Second, he may be good starting off an inning or a game, but runs still count in other situations as well. He has to do better than a .310 OBP as a leadoff hitter. With that .310 OBP, he has scored lots of runs; how is it controversial to say that he would score a ton more runs if he had a higher OBP. It's actually quite non-controversial.

What do we want out of Jimmy? A willingness to learn plate discipline. That's all.

by David S. Cohen on Jun 9, 2006 9:45 AM EDT up reply actions

"Ton of Runs"

Eckstein has been on base a total of 11 more times. #3 hitter best hitter in the game, leads league in RBI and #4 who has .370 BA and a .458 OBP and a 1.078 OPS. If a leadoff hitter is going to score its going to from them 2. How many less runs?

by Philsin06 on Jun 9, 2006 10:12 PM EDT up reply actions

If he only lead off innings, then it is fine

But he gets more ABs than anyone else on this team. Less than half are leading off an inning. Is it not important for him to get on base the other times? He has Utley and Abreu batting right behind him. He NEEDS to be on base for those guys. They are the reason why he has scored so many runs. NOT Jimmy.

And don't even start with comments like Abreu not taking the bat off his shoulder.

by jonk on Jun 9, 2006 10:18 AM EDT up reply actions

There is more then an OBP, better things.

OK then lets see what an OBP does. Take the OBP leader in the NL. David Eckstien of the St. Louis Cards. He has an OBP of .384, He only scored 37 runs. He has probably the best hitter since Bonds and a possible future HOFer in Rolen hitting behind him, followed by Edmunds. That is a pretty good lineup. Or Marcus Giles, He has 2 great hitters hitting behind him both MVP caliber players, Giles has an OBP of .335, which is Avg for the leadoff hitter in the NL. All I am saying, hear me out, is that Rollins might have a low OBP, but wouldn't you want to have a player leading off that would score more runs. Yes I understand if he got on base more that they would score more runs. But what maybe 4 more runs. He is 2nd in the league (among leadoff) in scoring runs. OK now let me explain, Rollins is a way more agressive runners then then most leadoff hitter, Reyes and Ramirez are the others. Because Eckstien has a higher OBP, he also gets alot of singles. Rollins actually has more BB then Eckstien. Rollins has doubles and steals bases which is something Eckstien doesn't do. Wouldn't you want a agressive baseball player as a leadoff then a typical singles weak hitter. Rollins also has more power and RBI. And the fact that is seams like he scores in every game I mean come on. Look outside the box. What type of hitter would you really want, A agressive runner who puts himself in scoring position or a singles hitter that could very well end up in a double play. OBP does not prove who is a good leadoff hitter or not. Does it help yes, but come on to move a player like this out of the leadoff spot is crazy. Even if you put Abreu in the 1st spot you just changed the whole makeup of the lineup. Its to extreme, you lose Abreu abiltiy to drive in runs. For what. How many actual runs do you think the Phils will score. If Rollins gets 120 Abreu might get 130. but what about the RBI that they lose. come on atleast think about it.

by Philsin06 on Jun 9, 2006 9:30 PM EDT up reply actions

Phils v. Cards

You're completely understating the huge difference between the guys who follow Rollins and almost every other leadoff hitter. The Phils do not have the prototypical blackhole in their lineup at number 2; they have Chase Utley. They then have OBP and SLG machines Bobby Abreu, Pat Burrell (when he's not slumping), and Ryan Howard hitting behind him. I can't think of another leadoff hitter followed by four guys who are so good at avoiding outs and moving runners . . . without a single player interrupting the flow who is not good at those things.

This different is huge, and that is why Rollins could be producing so much more - if he gets on base at a decent clip in front of those four guys, he should outscore everyone else in baseball by at least 20 if not more.

by David S. Cohen on Jun 12, 2006 5:36 PM EDT up reply actions

Dave Agreed

He would score more runs, but the leadoff hitter is the discussion. Even if the 2nd hitter make an out look at the big difference between 3&4th hitters. He always puts himself in scoring position 40% of the times his is on base, now does that or does that not make it easier for the 2nd hitter. Eckstein will not score more runs because he is not agressive on the base path at all. Dont tell me thats not something you dont want as a leadoff hitter. You want a agressive runner, a threat on the paths, some power, and someone to provide a spark, although Rollins dosent walk much he does gets his hits as proof last year when he batted .290 and he was 3rd in most hits that he does get on base. Would you rather have a guy on first or a guy who is on 2nd.

by Philsin06 on Jun 12, 2006 9:28 PM EDT up reply actions

Of course

I want someone who knows how to run the bases well hitting leadoff. But, I also want someone who knows how to get on base at something even close to league average. With the amazing hitters in the Phils' lineup hitting 2 through 5, our leadoff hitter should have a lot more runs that Rollins has. He is good on the basepaths, yes, but he's terrible at getting onto the basepaths. That is much much more important given who hits behind him. Manufacturing runs just isn't as important with Utley, Abreu, Burrell, and Howard.

by David S. Cohen on Jun 13, 2006 2:20 PM EDT up reply actions

This is it

nice conversation, thanks but we can end it. Because we have different versions of a leadoff hitter. This year his year is a little down, But in 04 and 05 his OBP ending up being avg. But it doesn't matter I can make a case on why St. louis hitter doesn't score and you can make a case why Rollins dosen't get on base. Bottom line Rollins scores, he is the best base runner on the team. You can say how a 2nd hitter is makeing him better and I can prove he makes the 2nd hitter better. I can show a player with a higher OBP then Rollins who has a good #2 hitter behind in in Giles/Renteria or Damon/Jeter. Rollins has just as many runs as Damon with 2 HOF right after him. All I am saying getting on base is just not the most important thing. What happens when you are on base is whats important. Like I said, you can not sit here and tell me haveing the guy in front of you in scoring position and the pitcher in the stretch is not going to help the 2nd batter. Its history that Rollins #2 hitter is always better behind him then in another spot in the order or on another team. Thats the cold hard truth. You media blows OBP out and people are to stupid to relize there is much, much more to a leadoff hitter. I will use a better example on your 2nd hitter thing, Look at Reyes, gets doubles and SB alway putting himself in scoring position, his 2nd batter bats has an OPS of .725. So in reality your 2nd hitter thing dont work. LoDuca doesnt even have a good OBP. So it dont work, look at there 3 and 4 hitter, Beltran has a 1.044 OPS and Delgado has a .846 and the 5th (Wright) has a .919. Reyes has a lower OBP then Rollins but score the same amount of runs. Open the Mind Dave, Come on in the water is fine. LOL

by Philsin06 on Jun 13, 2006 6:58 PM EDT up reply actions

Avoiding outs - that's what it's about

My mind is open. It's open to the idea that avoiding outs is the single most important thing in offense that leads to scoring runs. If you don't get that, it's your mind that is closed.

If Rollins avoided outs more often (thus, higher OBP), he'd be a much better leadoff hitter. People think he's good now because of who hits after him. I would be much happier if people thought he was good for that AND because he actually avoided outs more often.

It's quite simple.

by David S. Cohen on Jun 13, 2006 7:08 PM EDT up reply actions

I'm sorry but

I thought being in scoring position and having the pitcher pitching from the stretch was the most important thing. Funny how the guys who score the most runs are also the guys who hit doubles and steal bases. I find it extremely funny how the guys with SB and Doubles are the guys leading in runs scored. Did you just see Reyes beat out a bunt, steal a base and score. ON A SINGLE. This is a guy with a lower OBP then Rollins but yet the same amount of runs.

by Philsin06 on Jun 13, 2006 7:27 PM EDT up reply actions

Do you know that

Utley bats .363, has an OPS of 1.038 with 12 doubles and 32 RBI with runners on and .269 BA and .810 with bases empty. I'm sorry but that shows Rollins makes him a better 2 hole hitter.

by Philsin06 on Jun 13, 2006 7:47 PM EDT up reply actions

Where was Reyes right before both times he scored?

On base!

What don't you get here - unless you're saying that being aggressive on the base paths is incompatible with being patient enough at the plate to have a high OBP (and if you are, please see Rickey Henderson's career and, for a more current player, Rickie Weeks), how do you not see that it would be much better for the Phils' offense if Rollins were BOTH aggressive on the base paths (like he is now) AND better at avoiding outs?

by David S. Cohen on Jun 13, 2006 8:06 PM EDT up reply actions

You can

but i am not saying Rollins is the perfect player. Look at Abreu stats, his he the perfect player NO. Besides the fact that he is leading in scoring runs he also is 2nd in HITS and 2nd in doubles. I mean twice tonight he came and had something to do with tying the game up. Lets not forget the fact he was leading off the inning (get leadoff hitter) He scores or RBI in 65% of the games he played in, 2 games in which he pinch hit and 1 game where he went 3-4. What more do you want. What is so hard to understand PRODUCTION is the key. Helping the 2nd hitter is the KEY. Rollins is not the problem. He does his job. While Eckstien gets on Rollins has way more extra base hits Not to mention SB. What dont you get about putting yourself i scoring position. That is why he scores runs, Reyes also. Its not Rollins job to carry the team. Its his job to score the runs. bottom line. I cant find one leadoff hitter in the NL that I would want over Rollins. Everybody complains and nobody has anybody else. Because YOU REFUSE to look outside OBP. That is the most overblown stat ever. Look at the ballplayer.

by Philsin06 on Jun 13, 2006 8:52 PM EDT up reply actions

Overblown?

If you can explain to me how a player can score a run without getting on base, then I'll agree that OBP is overblown. Until then, your comment is quite silly.

by David S. Cohen on Jun 13, 2006 9:03 PM EDT up reply actions

I dont know but

Rollins scores lots of runs for not getting on base. More runs the people with higher OBP. My comment was silly. Does he lead the league among leadoff hitters in runs score, did he come up with a big hit to tie the game, TWICE. Maybe he scores more runs because he gets more extra base hits, maybe he scores runs because he is 2nd in the league for hits. I dont know but for a guy who doesnt get on base and can lead the league in runs can do that is better then Copperfield i guess. But it happens. Can you please explain to me how Rollins scores those runs and not being able to get on base. That sir is why OBP for a leadoff hitter is SILLY. Please explian yourself

by Philsin06 on Jun 13, 2006 9:12 PM EDT up reply actions

Read the original post

Rollins scores so many runs because he was at the time of writing this piece second in the majors at OBS - on base success rate. Meaning, when he gets on base by any method other than a home run, he scores at a higher rate than all but Hanley Ramirez. How's that happen? Look who hits after him, that's how.

by David S. Cohen on Jun 13, 2006 9:15 PM EDT up reply actions

I'm sorry did you miss the post

Where Utley Bats .233 when not batting 2nd. OPS of around .600. Dont for some reason think he doesnt get help from Rollins being in scoring position. While Utley bats .363 and an OPS of 1.038 with runners on (Rollins) he also bats .269 and an OPS of .810 with the base empty. Dont dicount the FACT that all 2 hole hitters have great stats behind Rollins>>Lofton, Micheals and Utley<<Who dont hit as good without him.<p> The FACT that Rollins is 3rd in Total bases and Reyes is 2nd in Total bases and both Tied in league leaders in runs scored has it all to do with why the score. Could they score more YEAH, but pitchers could do a good job, Abreu could be clutch late in the game, Manuel could manage better. Not every player is the complete player, it whether he does his job and Rollins does his job. When he doesnt score runs then he isn't be its been said over and over his job is to score runs and how can you get better then #1 in runs scored. As far as batting leadoff no outs/nobody on actual leading off His BA is .287 and OBP of .339 not including tonight. Oh did i mention 2nd in HR.

by Philsin06 on Jun 13, 2006 9:28 PM EDT up reply actions

for a guy

how is in the top 5 in all stats but OBP can be this bad of a leadoff hitter is beyond me.

by Philsin06 on Jun 13, 2006 9:30 PM EDT up reply actions

I am going to explain one more time how OBP is bul

Not including tonight
Eckstein-.392 OBP and 41 Runs
Rollins-.315 OBP and 48 runs
Reyes-.314 OBP and 48 Runs

Eckstein-10 doubles and 5 SB
Rollins-16 doubles and 14 SB
Reyes-11 doubles and 27 SB

Eckstein-98 total bases and 12 extra base hits
Rollins-102 total bases and 23 extra base hits
Reyes-109 total bases and 24 extra base hits

See how Eckstein has less extra base hits and total bases and SB. And Reyes and Rollins have more of those. Well Rollins 2nd hitter has hit into 2 double plays and Reyes 5 double plays while Eckstein's has hit into 14 double plays. Now what kind of player would you want. You might say look who is hittin behind Utley and i will say look who is hitting behind Reyes. Rollins makes the #2 hitter better. What is there not to understand what a leadoff hitter is suppose to do. Does Rollins not provide a spark for this team, Yeah he does he scored in 65% of the games he has played in.

by Philsin06 on Jun 13, 2006 10:22 PM EDT up reply actions

All i am saying is

With all the intangables with Rollins, Stealing bases, constantly putting himself in scoring position, 2nd in HR. For you to sit there and say Rollins has nothing to due with it when he scores in just about every game, 2nd in extra base hits, 3rd in total bases is just nuts. People want to look at OBP and think its the whole truth. It doesnt take into the account of what kind of hits. Me I rather have a guy who can always puts himself in scoring position. check this out, he scores 56% of the times he is on base. Eckstien scores 40% of the time. Could it posible he is a singles hitter. you brought up patience, Eckstien sees .30 more pitches per apperance. If you look at every leadoff hitter in the NL you will see that Rollins is about the 2nd best leadoff hitter. Take Fucal, LA is the best scoring team in the NL, has a nice .341 OBP but scored less runs. Why another great singles hitter. Proof is there Look at every signle leadoff hitter find who would rather have then explain why. People need to backup what they say, because MEDIA blows stuff out of order all the time without really know too much. no offense, reffering to talk radio, callers.

by Philsin06 on Jun 9, 2006 9:54 PM EDT reply actions

Hopefully you are here to learn...

You mentioned two players here; Eckstein of St. Louis and Furcal of Atlanta (who you claim is a sngles hitter but is practically a clone of Rollins).

I first want to point out that runs is a team statistic. And pretty heavily weaighted towards the team aspect as well, as we can see by Jimmy Rollins.

OBP of player listed batting #1 and #2 hitters, total runs:

St Louis: .392 .331 85
Los Angelas: .333 .399 100
Philadelphia: .315 .389 99

As you can see, the runs scored are a little more correlated with the OBP of the #2 hitter over the #1 hitter. This makes sense as the only way the #1 hitter can score is if someone drives him in. If the #2 hitter gets out, the inning is either over or there is 1 less chance of knocking him in. Also, if both the #1 and #2 hitters are on base, the #1 hitter HAS to be in scoring position (if he didn't score already). No need to steal a base when the #2 guy moves you over. This is the same situation as last year when our #2 hitter had a combined OBP of around .400.

So, what does this mean? This means that as Jimmy's OBP rises, his chances of scoring runs rise at a greater rate than Eckstein's, because Eckstein's #2 hitters stink. Jimmy gets more value from his OBP. If Eckstein was our leadoff hitter, he'd have considerably more runs scored than Jimmy does right now.

by jonk on Jun 12, 2006 11:46 AM EDT up reply actions

How do you figure

Dont discount the fact that Rollins has always made the #2 hitter better. He is a threat to steal when on first and most of the time he puts HIMSELF in scoring position. What does that not help a batter. #2 hitters Micheals and Lofton are not as good this year and Utley was batting .223 before he was moved into the 2nd spot. And somehow you are stuck on the 2nd hitter doing good. OK so he makes an out but the 3-4 hitters on the Cards are so much better then the Phils that it doesn't matter who bats 2nd. Unless you mean the DP the 2nd batter hits in St. Louis. Which now shows how important Rollins is in scoreing position. OBP does not make a leadoff hitter. A leadoff hitter is to provide a spark, be agreesive.

by Philsin06 on Jun 12, 2006 8:46 PM EDT up reply actions