Phillies Infield - Is This a Golden Age?
In the Mike Lieberthal thread, Philsin06 made an interesting assertion: right now the Phils have their best Firstbaseman, Secondbaseman and Shortstop that we've ever had. As it is, we seem to be finishing up a sort of Phillies Golden Age. Lieberthal is our second greatest catcher ever. Bobby Abreu is not only our greatest Rightfielders, but when all is said and done, one of the greatest Phillies ever. Is it possible this is spread all across the diamond? Well, I'll tell you this before the jump, David Bell & Abe Nunez are NOT the best Phils thirdbasemen ever.
First thing first, let me explain my methodology.
I went into the Baseball Prospectus player cards and took every player's WARP3 (which includes hitting, baserunning & defense and is adjusted for ballpark and season) and compiled that for their time with the Phillies. Now, this only includes their Phillies career. Bobby Abreu is no longer racking up Wins Above Replacement Position for the Phils, but for the Yanks, so those would not count.
I limited the study only to players who have at least 300 games played at the position we're considering. The only exception is Ryan Howard, for obvious reasons. And I limited the time frame to 1901. Incidentally, at 2B, SS & 1B (the positions I'm looking at) there are 17 players who fit those criteria for each position. Kinda spooky. I also did not bother breaking things down by position beyond that. If Ryan Howard DH'd for an interleague series, his numbers still count at 1B. Granny Hamner, who makes both the SS & 2B list, went back and forth between the two positions so much it would've been very difficult to separate them. I made two exceptions though. The notorious Kid Gleason had an entire career as a pitcher for the Phils in the 19th century, went away, then came back a decade later as a firstbaseman. I only included the second career. And Dick Allen had two distinct careers with the Phils as well. You may say I only included Dick Allen's numbers, not Richie Allen's.
So let's have some fun.
I think the best case can be made for Jimmy Rollins. Check out these 17 "terrific" shortstops.
Larry Bowa 53
Granny Hamner 44.8
Mickey Doolan 38
Jimmy Rollins 37.7
Dick Bartell 33.6
Dave Bancroft 31.2
Heinie Sand 22.7
Kevin Stocker 22.5
Bobby Wine 17
Dickie Thon 16.6
Steve Jeltz 16.2
Ruben Amaro Sr 15.9
Ivan DeJesus 8.7
Chico Fernandez 8.7
Rudy Hulswitt 7.6
Bobby Bragan 5
Desi Relaford 3.1
Its interesting to see names like Desi Relaford on there. Ivan Dejesus was certainly worth Ryne Sandberg. Forgot how good Dickie Thon was. And the neat thing with Kevin Stocker is that he was worth seven wins after he left. The flip side of the Dejesus trade. And of course the best player here, Dave Bancroft, we traded.
Anyway, if you were to discuss all time great Phils SS, the conversation begins and ends with Larry Bowa. Granny Hamner was close, but the fact that half those AB were as a secondbaseman make things a little weird.
I had to look up Mickey Doolan, who apparently went to Villanova, was a solid player here, then jumped to the Federal League. Baseball Reference has some interesting comps for him, the most recent being Alfredo Griffin. But Jimmy Rollins should pass him for third later this year.
J-Roll has generally been worth, roughly, 6 wins a year. This year he has been worth over 7 so far, and will probably pass 8 wins. That would leave him about 15 wins behind Larry Bowa, entering his age 28 season next year. I think unless he gets hurt or traded, Rollins will almost certainly go down as the greatest Phils shortstop ever.
Now let's take a look at our keystone players.
Tony Taylor 47.5
Granny Hamner 44.8
Mickey Morandini34.7
Juan Samuel 34.2
Otto Knabe 25.1
Dave Cash 24.5
Chase Utley 21.1
Cookie Rojas 20.8
Placido Polanco 19.5
Manny Trillo 18.4
Bernie Friberg 18.2
Fresco Thompson 16
Kid Gleason* 14.9
Marlon Anderson 10.8
Emil Verban 10.2
Bert Niehoff 7.6
Denny Doyle 5.7
Again, some interesting names here. That Juan Samuel is 4th, and Mickey Morandini 3rd really makes you wonder. After only about 400 games Chase Utley ranks 7th and is hot on the heels of Cash and Knabe. So far, in his two full seasons, Utley is worth about 9 wins each year. If he keeps that up (which is very possible) Utley should pass by Tony Taylor in 2009 or 2010, when he's 30. Utley is very much in the same position Rollins is in, largely because his competition is poor, but also because of some excellent talent.
Now let's look at the worst position, firstbase.
Von Hayes 48.2
Fred Luderus 41.2
John Kruk 32.9
Pete Rose 25.3
Don Hurst 22.1
Dolph Camilli 19.6
Ed Bouchee 18.9
Eddie Waitkus 18.8
Kitty Bransfield18.3
Jim Thome 17.5
Bill White 14.3
Deron Johnson 13.4
Rico Brogna 13.3
Ryan Howard 11
Ricky Jordan 10.2
Dick Allen* 10
Travis Lee 8.5
Walter Holke 1.8
Some great names on here. Ryan has already blown by Travis Lee (like oh so many fastballs did) and just recently passed Ricky Jordan. There's still a lot of people in front of him though. I think what is amazing is that Jim Thome was worth over 17 wins in basically two years. If he could've stayed healthy, I think he would've certainly been the greatest Phils firstbaseman ever, even at his age. I know this may be hard for people to believe, but he's been worth more than Howard this year. I'm not saying this to slag on Howard, but just so that we can remember someone truly special who played here for two years.
Which seems to be the issue with this list. There are some good players on here, but none with much staying power. After next season, barring injury, Howard should pass most of them, including the Greatest Player Ever, Rico Brogna. But can he crack the Top 3?
John Kruk is 22 wins away. Now, Howard is looking at maybe 7+ wins this year. If he can keep that up for three more years, Krukker is in trouble. He'd need two and a half years on top of that (or less, if he can put up a monster year) to pass Fred Luderus and Von Hayes (for those curious as to why I called Luderus the best 1B in Phils history earlier, its because Von was mostly an outfielder). So we're looking at roughly 5-6 years, give or take depending on if he explodes or if his ligaments explode. That takes him up through his age 32 season.
Will Ryan Howard still be an excellent player in 2012? Well, we're looking at someone with "old player skills" and bad defense. Of course, BP has his top comps as Travis Hafner, Mo Vaughn (circa 1994), Cecil Fielder (circa 1990), Mike Epstein, Willie Stargell, Carlos Delgado, Ryan Klesko, Richie Sexson and Frank Howard. That's an encouraging list.
I'm not going to come to any conclusions on this one. You all can interpret this data any way you want. But I think its definitely possible that we may, right now, be dealing with the best infield in Phillies history and, up until three weeks ago, had five of the best Phils ever on this team.
And we still can't win the Wild Card. Yeesh.
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Wow
Aram-Ram
The reason why is because there aren't many deep-pocketed teams out there with a need at third base. Forget the two NY clubs: he's not displacing Wright or A-Rod. In Chicago/AL, either Crede or Fields probably will be the guy for the next few years. The Cardinals have Rolen. The Dodgers have Adam LaRoche almost ready to go. The Angels have prospects everywhere. I guess the Red Sox are a possibility, but my hunch is that Epstein would rather find another cheap slugging first baseman and make do with either Lowell or Youkilis at third. Texas could be a possibility--but they're still into Hank Blalock for serious dollars.
If he does void the deal, the Phils would have a strong shot at him: they're probably the highest-payroll club with a need at the position. But if I'm Ramirez's agent and looking at this market, I don't know if I take the plunge.
ARam
by David S. Cohen on Aug 16, 2006 3:15 PM EDT up reply actions
I Am Embarrassed For Gillick
by robbybonfire on Aug 15, 2006 7:12 PM EDT reply actions
Peak years
Pat Gillick's epitath
Of course, to pivot back to the King Idiot, Ed Wade squandered even more. Our second greatest player ever in Abreu, Rollins, Utley and Howard and what did we get for it? Screw that, he still had a useful Lieberthal, Jim Thome (who was better than Howard) and let it go? Did it take a genius to see that you move Polanco to third, eat Bell's contract, acquire a pitcher (any pitcher) and this team can go deep? If a team had to face Rollins/Polanco/Abreu/Thome/Utley/Burrell in the playoffs.... yeesh.
The sad thing is that if the past is any predictor, we'll tell our grandchildren about these days and they'll be in awe of how good we were.
Depressing thought
The Phillies control Rollins, Utley and Howard through 2009, 2010 and 2011, respectively, if I'm not mistaken.
This team could contend as early as next year (if not this year) by resigning Dellucci if possible, locating a David Bell-level or better third baseman (perhaps through a trade of Rowand, who could be replaced by Bourn), signing Wolf to a incentive-laden contract, and locating a decent FA to fill out the rotation. A rotation of Hamels/Myers/Wolf/FA/Mathieson would likely be better than what the Phillies have had this year, and the offense could be very good. Fill out the bullpen with some of the many pitchers in the system and you've got the makings of a potentially very good and pretty cheap team.
My issue
Or, more accurately, I can't see them upgrading it to the extent the other teams in the division will. Look at our core versus theirs:
Utley/Howard/Rollins
Beltran/Wright/Reyes
Cabrera/Uggla/Ramirez
McCann/A. Jones/Giles
Johnson/Kearns/Lopez
So even though we have those guys locked up for a while, so do these other teams. Can we out strip them in pitching & complimentary parts?
Selling the Phils short
First, Utley/Howard/Rollins might be the best trio of those you listed. It's certainly comparable to the Mets and Braves, and clearly better than the Marlins and Nats. Regardless...
The Phillies truly are miserable at 3B. I think you overstate how bad CF is, though, and badly overstate the problem at C. Rowand, while a poor hitter, isn't much below average for the position, and may make up for it somewhat defensively. And Michael Bourn has a chance to replace him next year and might be better overall. At C, Lieberthal is pretty bad, although he's on an upswing. But it doesn't matter, because he won't be back (unless on a very cheap contract as a 3rd catcher). Ruiz and Coste will most likely be the catching duo. Coste probably isn't as good as he's looked this season, but I think he'd be an upgrade over Lieberthal next year. And I can't see why Ruiz couldn't put up solid numbers given regular playing time.
Also, I don't think it's fair to call the OF corners "mediocre." Burrell is mediocre, perhaps, but if Dellucci can be retained, would apparently be used sparingly. Victorino doesn't have the power you'd like from a corner spot, but he certainly hits his share of doubles and triples and seems to hit a little better with more playing time.
Again, the pitching can be upgraded just by getting full seasons out of Myers, Hamels, Wolf and even Mathieson would probably be an upgrade. Every start not taken by someone named Madson, Floyd or Bernero is a step in the right direction. Pick up a 4th/5th starter on the cheap (or, heck, retain Jon Lieber), and replace as needed with J.A. Happ, Gio Gonzalez, Segovia, etc...
Basically, I'm saying the Phillies can upgrade by not doing much, and not spending much money. Find an acceptable third baseman. Resign Dellucci or find a similar good-hitting lefty platoon outfielder.
agree
Third base is the big area of need. I'm confident that it will be addressed. Unless we luck into Aramis Ramirez, it won't be with someone as good as all our division opponents' third basemen, but I could live with a Mark Teahan type. (And just think how happy steagles would be!) I think phatj has it exactly right with the catcher position, though I'd like to see the Phils take another run at Piazza if he doesn't re-sign with the Padres.
I'm pretty sure that the Phils' biggest resource allocation problem in the big-budget years (2003-2006, assuming they cut next year) was Wade's fetishistic overspending on the bullpen. Gillick, whatever his other faults, doesn't strike me as likely to fall into that trap. When you don't commit to paying Rheal Cormier $20 million over 5 1/2 years for mediocrity, it's amazing how easy it is to address other problems.
Burrell and Dellucci Are Mediocre?
by robbybonfire on Aug 16, 2006 9:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Bad choice of words
Burrell though is purely average. There's 16 NL LF. I could name seven off the top of my head I'd prefer: Jason Bay, Adam Dunn, Alfonso Soriano, Andre Ethier, Dave Roberts, Barry Bonds, Matt Holliday and if Carlos Lee was still around, Lee. Burrell is a nice player, but LF is a stacked position.
burrell
by Philsin06 on Aug 18, 2006 5:53 AM EDT up reply actions
BURRELL IS NOT CHOPPED LIVER
As for Burrell, his .376 OBP is plenty good for a slugger, as is his .503 SLG which translates to an Isolated Power Average of ,247 when you subtract his BA from his SLG figure, again quite good. Also, his RBI Average of .213 is in star, close to All-Star country as anything over a .200 RBI average (70 RBI's in 328 AB) represents real production.
If you replace Burrell with Victorino, full-time, you would get better defense and speed, but would have no chance of making it up with Victorino's mediocre power numbers. I like Victorino, he's a keeper, but Burrell is a primary cog in the Phillies wheel.
by robbybonfire on Aug 18, 2006 12:53 PM EDT reply actions
Yes
The problem is, if we have a player who is, at best, average at his position as a vital cog, then we're in trouble. His performance, VORPwise, is equal to Frank Catalanatto's this season. Except he's not a vital cog for the Blue Jays. Thats the scary part.
if thats the case then
You dont need HR to score runs. They seem to score more runs when he isn't playing. At least lately.
by Philsin06 on Aug 20, 2006 9:08 AM EDT up reply actions
YOUR "WHO NEEDS BURRELL HOME RUNS" JOKE
Any more belly-laugh jokes to make my day?
by robbybonfire on Aug 20, 2006 1:09 PM EDT reply actions
Doh!
by Philsin06 on Aug 20, 2006 1:45 PM EDT up reply actions
APRIL, 2006 a.k.a. "THE DARK AGES"
by robbybonfire on Aug 20, 2006 7:38 PM EDT reply actions
Hey everybody
by Philsin06 on Aug 21, 2006 9:13 AM EDT up reply actions

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