I noticed that there are some who think the Abreu trade is good because it will allow the Phillies to address the pitching problem in the off-season.  That made me look into the 2006/2007 free agent class of pitchers.  The results of the study may surprise you.

Unless you're a Phillies fan, in which case you'll know this class is horrible.

First, I took off the following pitchers because their option will likely be picked up:

    Mark Buehrle, Tom Glavine, Mike Mussina, John Smoltz, Tim Wakefield, Kerry Wood.

I'm not including Roger Clemens because there is no way he'd ever want to pitch here.  Brad Radke was left off because he's already said he'll retire.  And a few pitchers, the Joe Mays type, I left off because no one cares.  Greg Maddux is gone because if he does pitches, it won't be on the East Coast.  Vicente Padilla probably won't come back, and after his recent comments, I think Cory Lidle's Phillies career is over.

    That left us with 18 pitchers.  For each one I included their 2007 Season Age, their 2006 VORP (not the best way to calculate value, but good enough for this exercise), their 2006 IP, and their 2006 base salary.  I grouped them by VORP, broke them down with some comments, and included your Pat Gillick Threat Level to let you know how scared you should be of our idiotic GM this off-season.

    Let's start off with the bottom 4:

    Bruce Chen (30)      -12.5    82.7    3.8 million
    Mark Mulder (29)     -3.4    88.7    7.75 million
    John Thomson (33)    -1.6     79.3    4.75 million
    Jason Marquis (28)     0.5    147.3    5.15 million

    Nothing to see here.  Jason Marquis had one big year but has been trending downward since.  John Thomson, other than a couple small stretches, is not a very good pitcher.  Mark Mulder is the scary one.  He's had some great years, and despite the injury risk and horrible season will still carry a BIG price tag on him.  May be worth a gamble but not at the price he'll get (which, based off the other pitchers available, could be a high level).  Bruce Chen had one good year.  Hopefully we won't bring him back.

    Pat Gillick Threat Level: Orange.  Mulder is very tempting, and all of these guys have had enough success recently that they may be tempting and should get big contracts.

    Next up are the fourth/fifth starter candidates.

    Mark Redman (33)    7.9    110.3    4.5 mill
    Tony Armas (29)    7.1      97.7    2.1 mill
    Jeff Suppan (32)    5.1    120.1    4 mill

    Some decent back end options.  Mark Redman has steadily gotten worse and may not have much left in the tank.  If you look up innings eater in the dictionary, you'll see Jeff Suppan's picture (much like if you look up cliché, you'll see that line).  He has also steadily gotten worse, and probably will give you nothing more than replacement level performance.  Tony Armas is the interesting one.  Ever tantalizing, going back to the Pedro deal, he's also highly brittle.  The problem is he also hasn't been that good lately.  Plus he screwed up my fantasy team, so I really hate him.

    Pat Gillick Threat Level: Yellow.  It'd be a waste to give any of these guys much money, but at worst, they're just a mediocre starter.

    I left Adam Eaton out of this (although he would've fit in with the last group) because of his injuries.  I think Adam Eaton is the real deal, and I would've preferred to have him the last six years to Andy Ashby, but he's missed significant portions of the last two seasons.

    The next group are those who have been pretty good this year, but nothing special.

    Woody Williams (40)    14.2    77.3    5 mill
    Aaron Sele (37)    13.7    82.0    $500,000
    Miguel Batista (36)    12.8    143.3    4.75 mill
    Tomo Ohka (31)    11.8    58    4.53 mill
    Steve Trachsel (36)    10.5    116.0    2.5 mill
    Andy Pettitte (35)     9.8    145.0    17.5 mill

    Two things about this group jump out.  Other than Ohka, they're all old.  Most of them also haven't thrown many pitches.  Woody Williams hasn't pitched much, is old, expensive, and has superficially good stats.  That's scary.  Aaron Sele is still pretty much useless.  Miguel Batista (who knew he was so old?) is probably a solid mid-rotation option.  He's also the kind of solid groundball pitcher we need here.  Tomo Ohka, the kid of the bunch, is actually a very decent option for a fourth starter.  He also probably won't be that expensive.  Steve Trachsel has moved from solid, if unspectacular, to innings eater.  Of course, if the Mets win the World Series, he'll cash in (and could the Phils be the ones to pay him for Carlos Beltran's exploits?  Yes).  Finally, Andy Pettitte.  Its amazing to think it was just about seven years ago we were waiting to see if the Phils could land him.  How different would those years have been?  He's always been slightly overrated, and last year's insanely great performance doesn't help with that perception.  He'd probably be an excellent option, except look at that last column.  Even if he wanted to pitch in Philly (which he probably wouldn't) do we think he'd be less than eight figures a year?

    Pat Gillick Threat Level: Red.  We have proven winners, guys that know how to pitch, and people who could bring the right attitude to the club.  Although there's some good options, with the way the market will play out, this could be disastrous.

    Next are the pitchers who have done pretty well this year, but not amazing.

    Ted Lilly (31)        23.6    126.3    4 mill
    Jamie Moyer (44)    22.9    143.0    5.5 mill
    Gil Meche (28)    22.7    131.7    3.7 mill

    Ted Lilly is probably the best option on the market.  He shouldn't be that expensive, there's no reason he wouldn't pitch here, and he's always been a pretty good hurler.  Would be a good Jon Lieber type.  Also, his full name is Theodore Roosevelt Lilly.  That's cool.  Jamie Moyer would be a nice story, a Hawk coming home to finish his career.  He's also a pretty good pitcher still.  The only problem is he relies on his defense and is a flyball pitcher.  Probably not a good marriage for the 2007 Phillies.  Gil Meche could be the troublesome one of this year's market.  Not that good a pitcher, and not the healthiest either.  But he's still the fireballing kid that the Mariners have been developing seemingly forever.  

    Pat Gillick Threat Level: Orange.  These guys are close enough to the top of the market they'll probably be too expensive.  However, Lilly is a pretty good pitcher and Meche may not be a bad risk.  One of these could work out for the Phils, but likely not.

    Jason Schmidt (34)    45.5    150.3    10.5 mill
    Barry Zito (29)    43.2    156.7     7.9 mill

    The cream of the crop.  Either of these guys could be our ace.  And Barry Zito happens to be my favorite player.  Also, notice that Jason Schmidt really isn't that old, despite being around a long time.  The problem is we're not getting them.  Barry Zito is, unfortunately, going to be a Met.  They can pay him the big bucks, and Rick Peterson is his favoritest pitching coach in the whole wide world.  

    The problem is Schmidt.  He's the second best pitcher in the NL.  The only pitchers in baseball better than him this year are Brandon Webb, Francisco Liriano, Johan Santana, Roy Halladay and Justin Verlander.  None of them will ever see the free market.  Every team that could use an ace will be after him.  Oakland, Minnesota, Kansas City, Pittsburgh, Milwaukee, Colorado, Florida & Tampa Bay would probably not give him the money he wants.  That still leaves 22 teams.  Will the Phillies a) give him more money than teams like NYY/BOS/LAA and b) be as attractive an option as the real contenders?

    Pat Gillick Threat Level: Blue.  We have no shot at these guys.

    This market is actually quite bad.  There are two studs, a couple of interesting options, and then a lot of mediocrity.  The problem with that typically means the mediocrity gets a lot of money.  So if the Abreu trade was made to allow the team to make a splash in the free agency period, its an even worse trade.  Shockingly, the situation leaks even more bleak than normal.