FanPost

Beyond The Boxscore On Jimmy Rollins

We all can read Jimmy Rollins' stat line in the newspaper:

.279 average, 44 doubles, 8 triples, 25 home runs, 82 RBI, 124 runs, 36 SB

Looks pretty good, especially for a leadoff man. And it is good. It's not the best, though, if one ranks leadoff men(with at least 325 plate appearances) by OPS (on-base + slugging percentage):

956 - Alfonso Soriano
919 - Grady Sizemore
877 - Gary Matthews Jr.
869 - Reed Johnson
846 - Jose Reyes
842 - Johnny Damon
839 - Hanley Ramirez
827 - Rafael Furcal
824 - Jimmy Rollins
816 - Kevin Youkilis

So he's 9th out of 29 lead. Not too shabby. For pure curiosity's sake, I'm going to list the bottom five leadoff men by their OPS:

696 - David Eckstein (Cardinals)
682 - Scott Podsednik (White Sox)
679 - Craig Counsell (Diamondbacks)
651 - Chone Figgins (Angels)
650 - Willy Taveras (Astros)
Quite a list of speed and grit there.

Back to Rollins, his line is somewhat boosted by the sheer amount of plate appearances he's had compared to the rest of the leadoff men, which is bound to happen on a team that scores a lot of runs like the Phillies...thus why I am not ranking him with counting stats. But what is important for a leadoff man? For example, getting on-base. His OBP is rather average, at 340 according to ESPN(but 335 according to Yahoo??), which ranks him either 21st or 23rd depending. That's the epitome of average.

Another important `leadoff' stat is pitcher per plate apperance, because working the pitcher to get him out of the game can lead to runs. He takes 3.70 an appearance, not that bad in regards to the rest of the league, but pedestrian compared to other leadoff hitters. Kevin Youkilis has a similar OPS to Rollins, but takes 4.39 P/PA. Rollins ranks 23rd out of 29.

What he does have as a leadoff man is power, and a bunch of it. Here's him in the top 10 of Isolated Power (slugging - average):

.294 Alfonso Soriano
.246 Grady Sizemore
.202 Jimmy Rollins
.197 Johnny Damon
.190 Hanley Ramirez
.189 Jose Reyes
.185 Gary Matthews Jr.
.171 Curtis Granderson
.165 Craig Biggio
.156 Reed Johnson

It's quite amazing to see such a little guy up at the top of this lineup, but he does have a quick bat. I also find it interesting in that I don't think that the other three should be leadoff men (Soriano, Sizemore, and Damon in another lineup). Damon is a leadoff man because he's on the Yankees, and the other two are leadoff men for some reason???

This all means that he's a very unorthodox leadoff men, at least compared to what the `ideal' leadoff man is. He steals bases, but he doesn't hit for a high average or get on base at a good clip, and he hits a lot of doubles and homers. Very unique, actually. I'd imagine he'd be more valuable lower in the lineup, instead of a spot in the lineup that values getting on-base so much. If he gets 750 plate appearances, he's going to be out about 30 more times than a guy like Grady Sizemore in the same amount of appearances. Travis Hafner, the league leader in OBP at .439, would get out 65 times less.

Thing is, it's not fair to Rollins to judge him solely by where he hits in the lineup. It's somewhat arbitrary to define him as a `leadoff man' simply because the Phillies insist he is one. Instead, let's judge him by the guys that also play his position, using similar criteria, plus some newer stats that measure players.

There are 30 shortstops with at least 325 plate appearances in the Majors this year. Rollins ranks 15th out of 30 in regards to OBP. Dead average. Top 10 in OPS though:

917 - Carlos Guillen
903 - Bill Hall
897 - Derek Jeter
881 - Miguel Tejada
844 - Jose Reyes
834 - Hanley Ramirez
818 - Michael Young
818 - Rafael Furcal
813 - Jimmy Rollins
790 - Edgar Renteria

From that list, one name that jumps out at me is Bill Hall. Guy is completely underrated simply because he plays in Milwaukee and his numbers are supressed from not getting as many at bats as anyone else on that list. Plus, he has the lowest average (.272). Still, the guy has some of the better rate stats out there for a SS, and I'd peg him for a top 5 SS over the next couple years as he settles in (taking the most pitches looks to be good for the future). As for Rollins, he looks pretty good on that list, and I wouldn't expect him to go any higher or lower really. Now for Isolated Power:

.283 Bill Hall
.205 Carlos Guillen
.199 Jimmy Rollins
.189 Hanley Ramirez
.188 Jose Reyes
.171 Miguel Tejada
.146 Rafael Furcal
.145 Michael Young
.142 Derek Jeter
.139 Edgar Renteria

Rollins' number is slightly lower than as a leadoff man because of a few non-leadoff at bats. Still, it's quite good for a SS. This is where his value comes from. Obviously getting on-base is more important that hitting for power because it allows for more chances to score, but it's still good to see power like this out of your SS. And all that power makes him a top 10 SS in regards to EQA (total offensive value per out, corrected for league, ballpark, and pitching). .250 is average :

.316 - Derek Jeter
.310 - Carlos Guillen
.303 - Miguel Tejada
.290- Hanley Ramirez
.289 - Bill Hall
.288 - Jose Reyes
.283 - Rafael Furcal
.279 - Michael Young
.276 - Jimmy Rollins
.274 - Edgar RenteriaIt's not surprising to see the same 10 names over and over in these SS lists, because there's only about 10 of them that are any good this year. Maybe Jhonny Peralta will bounce back next season, but right now there's only 10 good ones. And for whatever faults he has, Jimmy Rollins is still one of them. And if Rollins is able to actually put an OK first half of a season together (744 OPS in 1st half this year, 893 OPS 2nd half), he could maybe even get onto the cusp of the top 5. And his glove puts him at least 7th or 8th on that list right now.  For whatever that's worth to you.

also posted here: Huge Tiny Mistake