FanPost

Rowand's Back Again; Signs 1 year deal

also posted at HTM
Let's begin.  Aaron Rowand and the  Phillies have avoided arbitration by agreeing to a 1 year 4.35 million dollar deal.  This deal essentially ensures that Rowand will be manning the outfield for the Phillies in 2007.  The Phils are picking off their arbitration-eligible players one by one:

Rowand is the second of the Phillies' five arbitration-eligible players to agree to a contract, joining Ryan Madson. Geoff Geary, Brett Myers and Chase Utley remain unsigned, and the Phillies could be far apart on the latter two.

Bada bing baby!  Avoiding arbitration with all of these guys is great! Too bad Ryan Madson sucks and may or may not get any better, and Rowand just ain't that great period.  But hey, the savings we are getting out of these signings!  OH BOY

To be serious, this signing indicates that Rowand will not be dealt.  This means we are left with an outfield consisting of LF Pat Burrell, CF Aaron Rowand, CF/RF Shane Victorino, CF Michael Bourn, CF/RF Chris Roberson, OF Jayson Werth, and possibly Karim Garcia.  Outside of Burrell, and a hopefully patient Shane Victorino, I don't see many winners in that bunch.  And by winners I mean producers.  Oh sure, they all have the `potential' to do well...don't most major leaguers?  That's why they're major leaguers.  But signing Rowand essentially guarantees that we are using two centerfielders to fill up two outfield spots.  And moving a centerfielder to the corner tends to decrease the value of said player (i.e. either Victorino or Rowand).  Any way we fill out the outfield will be a sharp decline from last season's mix of Burrell, Abreu, Dellucci, Victorino, and Rowand simply because we are moving everyone up two pegs on the food chain.

But what about Mr. Rowand?  The Phillies obviously thought he was worth at least SOMETHING, whether it be by signing him or by using him as trade bait.  They chose the former.  So what's he going to do next season?  To figure that out, we have to first go back to last season and see what he did:

    * 109 games (405 AB), 106 hits, 24 doubles, 3 triples, 12 homers
    * 47 RBI, 59 runs, 10 - 14 SB
    * .262 avg/321 OBP/425 SLG = 745 OPS
    * 18 BB, 76 K,  87 OPS+, 8.8 VORP, .256 EQA

His isolated power is decent for a centerfielder at .163, but that would be pretty bad if we have another centerfielder out there at the same time, especially if he's moved over to right.  And take out Rowand's great May (and I don't belive in this, just making a point), and Rowand would have a lot less power and a lot less value.  Frankly, he doesn't get on base near enough at all.  Plus, he hacks.  18 walks to 76K, even with double-digit hit by pitches, is putrid.  There's no reason to think that this ratio will get any better at all, judging by his career.

One could say that Rowand ran into the wall in centerfield and derailed his season.  He WAS hitting well at that time, although that IS a bit revisionist, what with his OPS being 794-799 around May 1st.  He got his OPS up to 871 by May 11th, and then he broke his nose.  Some say that he then wasn't seeing well...this has never been substantiated and is likely trying to explain away a horrible rest of the season.

One COULD say that Rowand will bounce back this season, but that ignores history.  Rather, that ignores his career history, one of ups (2004) and downs (2005).  His career line is a bland 279 avg/334 OBP/446 SLG.  Whatever Rowand will `bounce back' to depends greatly on what Rowand's ceiling is.  If one truly believes that Rowand will bounce back all the way to 2004, then this could be a worthwhile signing.  If, however, one believes that Rowand's ceiling is around his career average, then this supposed bounce won't be bouncing too high.  And he won't be very valuable.  And then we've loaded our outfield with a bunch of mediocre players.

Believe what you want, but I'll go with what I know.  And what I know is that Rowand doesn't get on base very well, hacks at the plate a bit too much, and has average power.  That isn't the forumla for a productive hitter.