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Five trades for Jon Lieber

So here it is the last week of January, and the Phillies still have in their employ veteran starting pitcher Jon Lieber. In about eight months, Lieber went from the team's ace to their #6 starter, passed by two former rotation mates and three imports as he turned in a disappointing 9-11, 4.93 campaign in 2006 marred by a terrible start (0-4, 7.04 in April) and a subsequent injury.

But in a Nicole Richie-thin pitching market, it's a surprise that the Phils haven't yet found a taker. Lieber will turn 37 as of April 2, and he's owed $7.5 million for 2007, his final season under contract. On the other hand, he went 5-3, 3.38 over the last two months of 2006, and the year before he won 17 games while throwing 218 innings. In a world where Jason Marquis (6.02 ERA in 2006) gets the same three year, $21 million deal Lieber signed with the Phils in December 2004, big Jon should have some value. After the jump, we present five prospective deals in which the Phillies send Lieber to a team that needs a starter, and can meet Pat Gillick's wish for a setup reliever and/or a left-handed hitting outfielder.

Star-divide

Lieber to the Chicago Cubs for OF Jacque Jones

The Cubs actually have a full rotation, but only in the sense that the Phillies did a year ago at this time--they're counting on Mark Prior to stay healthy, the aforementioned Marquis to bounce back from a nightmare 2006, and Rich Hill to thrive in his sophomore season. Lieber, who won 20 games for the Cubs in 2000, would provide a large measure of security for Lou Piniella, who likey the veteran pitchers. Jones, meanwhile, seems to be expendable in a Cubs outfield featuring Matt Murton, Alfonso Soriano and Cliff Floyd. As a super-sub who could fill in for Burrell, Rowand and Victorino to take 450 at-bats against righties--whom he hit to the tune of .303/.358/.528 last season--Jones could be a big contributor.

Lieber to the Washington Nationals for OF Ryan Church

Nobody needs starting pitching more than Jim Bowden's Nats, who are hoping to avoid 100 losses with a rotation comprised of perennial injury risk John Patterson and a lot of guys set to earn the big-league minimum. Church may or may not be an ignorant cretin, but he's a lefty power bat with a great walk rate going into his age-27 season. The deal makes a lot of sense for both teams, though the Phils probably would have to pick up some of Lieber's $7.5 million payroll.

Lieber to the Minnesota Twins for RP Juan Rincon

Right now, the Twins are preparing to defend their AL Central title with a rotation of Cy Young Award winner Johan Santana, ex-Phillie Carlos Silva, and some amalgam of recently awful Ramon Ortiz and Sidney Ponson and young arms Boof Bonser, Matt Garza, and Scott Baker. They need innings, and the young guys could use another stabilizing vet. As thin as Minnesota is in the rotation, though, they're that deep in the bullpen: right now, shutdown closer Joe Nathan has perhaps the AL's best setup core with Jesse Crain, Pat Neshek, and Juan Rincon. Again, the Phils would have to pick up some of Lieber's salary, but any of those three--and Rincon is the most likely candidate--would answer the team's setup question, and could slot in as the "backup closer" Pat Gillick still wants.

Lieber and a second player to the St. Louis Cardinals for OF Chris Duncan

At first blush, it seems unlikely that the defending world champs would trade a guy who nearly slugged .600 (.589) at age 25 for an aging starter with conditioning issues. But Duncan's 2006 campaign was way out of line with his pro career to that point (career .262/.341/.412 in seven minor league seasons), and his defense is reputedly awful. Meanwhile, Duncan's pitching coach father would seem to be the ideal guide to keeping Lieber on track, and his presence would allow the Cards to leave one of erstwhile relievers Adam Wainwright and Brad Thompson in the bullpen.  The Phils probably would need to sweeten their side of this deal with a role player like Chris Roberson at least, but it could happen.  

Lieber to the Yankees for RP Kyle Farnsworth     

Everybody admires the Yankees' newfound willingness to go with unproven kids at the back of their rotation, but nobody really believes that Joe Torre will start the season with some combination of Kei Igawa, Jeff Karstens, and Philip Hughes in the back of his rotation. (No, I don't see Carl Pavano having a role here; he'll likely strain his glaven in the second week of March, and spend the next six months rehabbing.) Lieber has pitched well for Torre in the past, and with Scott Proctor and newly acquired Luis Vizcaino on hand, Farnsworth is expendable for the Yanks.

Poll
Where will Jon Lieber pitch in 2007?
Cardinals
9 votes
Cubs
17 votes
Nationals
10 votes
Twins
15 votes
Yankees
17 votes
Phillies
51 votes
Other
28 votes

147 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs  |  Comment 9 comments

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likelihood
trades for OFers would mean one of the current OFers in turn gets moved, correct? or do you think gillick/cholly would go with vic and werth as 4 and 5, shutting out bourn, roberson and the other philler we signed?

rincon would be nice to have. he actually had a bit of a down year for him last year, but still solid enough for our pen. i'd much rather have him pthrowing the 8th inning in his 28 season than mr twelve fingers.

by gr on Jan 25, 2007 2:02 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

job-sharing
I think the likely arrangement would be for Jones/Church and Victorino both to float between two or even all three positions, with the two of them, Rowand and Burrell all playing not quite 75 percent of the time and Werth as the second bat off the bench and a likely defensive replacement for Burrell as needed.

Bourn will start in Ottawa anyway, and I think Roberson is a marginal big-leaguer, a decent spare part but not really worth worrying about.

by dajafi on Jan 25, 2007 2:17 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

further on that
let me clarify my point. i don't think borne and roberson make the team or should, except that (a) gillick and manuel are pretty much on record as saying they want flexibility and speed off the bench and (b) manuel will continue to pinch run for burrell in the late innings and will want/need a bourne/roberson type to do so.  perhaps that becomes victorino's role or perhaps it spells the end of coste and we go with 6 OFs. this is assuming the other dreck we picked up get cut or optioned.

HOWEVER, i'm not sure how much faith i have in manuel as the manager of a job sharing program. this seems like the kind of thing he does NOT do, which is mix and match. he adheres moreso to straight platoons based sides of the plate ("my card says michaels vs L, lofton vs R"). since werth is a R, church a L and vic a switchy, it all may be mostly a wash in the end, or vic gets screwed. i still see rowand as the odd man out in this OF if they acquire church, but the org seems pretty content to keep him based on his status as a "field general" and "heart of the team" guy. we could do worse, we could do better.

that said, an OF of burrell, rowand, chruch, vic, werth could approach some level of respectibility, but we are really relying on the first two to put up above-their-average seasons to make it so.

finally, i kind of think the nats won't part with church, in any case. they are basically mailing it in until the new stadium, so a short-term pitching solution for a youngish OF really doesn't make too much sense for them.

by gr on Jan 25, 2007 4:44 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

cholly
I think you're probably right, but it's been speculated that this sort of (not really that) complicated lineup management could be put in Jimy Williams' lap. Is that likely? No idea. But I think that the message of the new coaching hires is that the organization likes Manuel overall, but they want to see some changes to his in-game tactical approach.

Meanwhile, I'd be thrilled with trading Rowand, stashing Vic in CF and going with a Jones/Werth platoon in RF. But that's probably too risky for Pat Gillick's taste.

by dajafi on Jan 25, 2007 5:02 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I like these in descending order...
Jones or Church would look great in our OF.  Rincon is one of the few setup guys in baseball who would be worth a serviceable starter.  On the other hand, I wouldn't take Duncan (this year's Chris Shelton) or Farnsworth (can't imagine that head case handling the love of Phillie fans) straight up for Lieber.
But I'd bet that Lieber is not dealt until near the final cuts of spring training - if I'm Pat Gillick, my first priority is to come north with five solid starters, and Eaton is a prime prospect to tweak something.  And I wouldn't be at all surprised if they keep Lieber around, hoping he can adapt to a bullpen role and will bring greater value near the trading deadline.

by Chris R on Jan 25, 2007 2:21 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

question
assuming he'd somehow be amenable to it, is lieber our 8th inning guy? does anyone think that's even possible?

by gr on Jan 26, 2007 8:15 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

hmm
I don't know, for some reason I'd see him getting hurt with the rushed warm up and constant schedule of relief pitching, am I crazy?

by Homer on Jan 26, 2007 9:46 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

seems doubtful
He hasn't made more than one relief appearance in a season since 1996, with the Pirates.

Advantages to Lieber working in relief: he doesn't walk anyone and... well, that's kind of it. He doesn't get many strikeouts, lefties beat him up but good, and the stats suggest his stuff isn't noticably better the first time guys see him than thereafter. I don't think he'd be a particularly good setup guy.

by dajafi on Jan 26, 2007 11:22 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

vis-a-vis geary
the walk thing was why it popped in my head, plus the possibility of sharpening his sinker by reducing his workload. he's a contact pitcher, which is not so reassuring in a late-inning relief role, but then again, most people seem to praise geoff geary for his year last year but ignore his mediocre peripherals. they seem like similar pitchers to me. check it out:

(h/9, hr/9, bb/9, k/9, whip)
geary: 10.15 0.59 1.97 5.91 1.35
lieber: 10.50 1.45 1.29 5.36 1.31

a high bomb rate, but very similar otherwise. i know he's got no experience as a reliever, but i guess i don't see how much that matters when you're talking about a guy who's thrown over 2,000 career innings.

by gr on Jan 26, 2007 4:34 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

mediocre peripherals?
I don't think 1.97 BB/9 and 3 K/BB counts as "mediocre peripherals".  He significantly reduced his walk rate while maintaining a decent strike-out rate.

I like Lieber's peripherals too, though his HR numbers are worrisome.

by Matt Swartz on Jan 28, 2007 10:44 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

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