Kyle Kendrick - 5th Place Rookie of the Year

by David S. Cohen on Nov 12, 2007 3:11 PM EST

Kyle Kendrick's 3.87 ERA and 10 wins after his early June callup from AA earned him one second place and four third place votes in the NL Rookie of the Year balloting. That was good enough for fifth place behind Ryan Braun, Troy Tulowitzki, Hunter Pence, and Chris Young. That's pretty good company for Kendrick to keep, given that the others were established prospects coming into the year whereas Kendrick really wasn't.

An interesting side note from writing this short post: Baseball Reference lists Kendrick's top comp through age 22 as John Denny. I'd be pretty psyched if there's a Cy Young in Kendrick's future.

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Re: Kyle Kendrick - 5th Place Rookie of the Year

aside from placing behind Young, who showed a lot of potential but still hit only .237 with a .297 OBP, I think that's a very respectable showing for Kendrick.

I go back and forth between thinking that he's a one-year wonder and that he's got a good future, but he'll be an interesting guy to watch in his first full major league season.

by perfectdepth on Nov 12, 2007 3:35 PM EST reply actions

Re: Kyle Kendrick - 5th Place Rookie of the Year

Me too. I'm not sure if it's good sense or just my inner Negadelphian that keeps whispering "Sell high!"

by dajafi on Nov 12, 2007 9:46 PM EST up reply actions

Re: Kyle Kendrick - 5th Place Rookie of the Year

Glad he got a couple votes, but the idea that Kendrick was better than either Braun or Tulowitzki is hilarious.

by WholeCamels on Nov 12, 2007 5:48 PM EST reply actions

Re: Kyle Kendrick - 5th Place Rookie of the Year

I would be absolutely astounded if Kendrick comes anywhere close to putting up the numbers he did last year again this coming year -- or ever. Let's take a look at his peripherals:

3.8K/9 2.0BB/9 1.25HR/9 1.55G/F
That equates to a 4.90 FIP and a 4.70 xFIP (basically normalizes the amount of fly balls that become home runs)

His minor league numbers aren't much better. In his 1/3 year at AA:
5.53K/9 1.99BB/9 .33HR/9

at A+ the year before:
5.47K/9 2.56BB/9 1.04HR/9

Kendrick is young, but he's not that young. AA was about where Kendrick should have been last year at 22, since he started Rookie league at 18. Kendrick's low walk rate and ground ball tendencies help balance his terrible K rate, but they can only go so far. Kendrick simply doesn't strike out enough batters to be even an average major league pitcher. I hope I'm wrong, but I expect an ERA of around 5 for Kendrick next year.

by christonabike on Nov 12, 2007 10:05 PM EST reply actions

Re: Kyle Kendrick - 5th Place Rookie of the Year

here's a question (for anyone, not just jeremy). which is more likely: Kyle Kendrick posting a sub-4.50 ERA or JC Romero posting a sub-3.50 ERA?

(not sure if those numbers are exactly proportionate in terms of starter/reliever value, just pulled them out of the air. but you get the idea.)

by perfectdepth on Nov 13, 2007 12:05 AM EST up reply actions

Re: Kyle Kendrick - 5th Place Rookie of the Year

tough to say. it would be about even if romero's true skill level was a 4.10 ERA and he threw 60 innings, and Kendrick's true skill level was a 4.85 ERA and he threw 180 innings. that actually sounds about right, so you picked a really good cutoff point :)

by Matt Swartz on Nov 13, 2007 12:30 AM EST up reply actions

Re: Kyle Kendrick - 5th Place Rookie of the Year

Romero's xFIP over the last 3 years was 4.87, 5.06, 4.69 (2007, 2006, 2005, respectively). His ERA was 1.92, 6.70. 3.47. I'd say the smart money is on Kendrick in this bet. I think Romero's ERA next year will be closer to his 6.70 from 2006 then 1.92 from last year. The Romero signing was a terrible move, I'd go so far as to label it Wadesque. I think the Phillies will regret it pretty immediately.

by christonabike on Nov 13, 2007 8:04 PM EST up reply actions

Re: Kyle Kendrick - 5th Place Rookie of the Year

Kendrick certainly appears to have the right makeup, but he's going to need to find a strikeout pitch if he's going to amount to much in the future. That K-rate just jumps out at you whenever anybody shows a statistical breakdown for him. Second year pitchers usually see an increase in strikeout rates but it's usually modest and that 3.8K/9ip is just too low a base.

by Dalton Bouchee on Nov 14, 2007 12:32 PM EST reply actions