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I am worried about our offense

It has been keeping me up at nights.  Well, since I work at nights, that might be a good thing, but I am certainly worried that we may have reached an apex.  I am not saying it looks doom and gloom from here on out, but we dropped a big piece from this year's offense (assuming Rowand doesn't return) and we are going to drop another one next year.  That is beginning to concern me.

Star-divide

Last year's lineup (ignoring order for the most part):

Rollins: .298 EqA (.270 career) +28 points
Victorino: .280 EqA (.265 career) +15 points
Utley: .330 EqA (.302 career) +28 points
Howard: .318 EqA (.322 career) -4 points
Burrell: .312 EqA (.290 career) +22 points
Rowand: .302 EqA (.278 career) +24 points
Helms: .232 EqA (.262 career) -30 points
Ruiz: .261 EqA (.260 career) +1 point

Werth: .305 EqA (.277 career) +28 points
Dobbs: .271 EqA (.257 career) +14 points

Almost every single player outperformed their career avergae in EqA.  Helms underperformed, but that was just in limited ABs.  Howard significantly underperformed his last year, but nobody expected him to repeat that and this is probably more like his level.

The big jumps were Utley (28 points), Rollins (28 points), Rowand (24 points) and Burrell (22 points).  We lost Rowand and while he wasn't likely to put up the same numbers next year, we will still miss what he did do last year in any fashion.  Here is just a questimate of what we may see next year in terms of EqA (this isn't nearly as in depth or as good as a projection that MattS does).  

Rollins: .285 EqA (.298 EqA 2007) -13 points
Victorino: .280 EqA (.280 2007) 0 points
Utley: .320 EqA (.330 2007) -10 points
Howard: .325 EqA (.318 2007) +5 points
Burrell: .300 EqA (.312 2007) -12 points
Werth: .275 EqA (Rowand .302 2007) -27 points
Helms: .255 EqA (.232 2007) +23 points
Ruiz: .265 EqA (.261 2007) +4 point

Dobbs: .260 EqA (.277 2007) -17 points

I see most players playing worse this year than last year, however, it's not like they are playing poorly.  Rollins is not likely to put up the huge extra base numbers again and he doesn't walk enough to break a .300 EqA as his OBP is generally average.  A .285 EqA is pretty respecatable.  I find it hard to believe that Utley will equal his .330 EqA.  He was hitting doubles like they were going out of style and I don't think he'll repeat that as it was an extreme.  A .320 is solid though.  Howard, I suspect, bounces back with identical power numbers, but a slightly higher OBP due to an increase in BA by 10 points or so.  Burrell isn't likely to walk like he did and I suspect he'll regress a bit, but a .300 EqA is excellent.  (As a note, Carlos Lee had a .301 EqA last year, Soriano a .293, and the 90 million dollar man had a .292).  Werth is an enigma, but I'd be happy with a .275 EqA in 400 or so ABs, but it is still a significant drop from Rowand last year.  Helms, if he starts, will likely go back to around league average, which will help a bit to offset the drops by everyone else.  Ruiz will likely stay the same and Dobbs will likely drop.

So, it looks like a couple of our everyday players may regress from their career highs AND we lost a .302 EqA this year.  Next year, if they stay at this level, we will still have lost Burrell's .300 EqA (assuming that he is around there).  That is a TON of offense to lose in back to back years and we have nobody to replace them.

I don't want Rowand back because Rowand of next year will likely not look like Rowand of last year.  Rowand of next year will likely look a bit like Victorino of next year.  That is the problem with players having a surprise year.  You tend to forget how much that added offense really helped you.  Our offense is going to take a decent hit next year and probably a bigger one next year.

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Re: I am worried about our offense
jonk, it concerns me as well, especially if they don't extend Burrell past '08.  Who replaces his production?  Golson?  Do they really believe that?

by AWH on Nov 28, 2007 7:42 AM EST reply actions  

Re: I am worried about our offense
I think they're counting on bringing someone in from the outside. Which is silly. Granted that Burrell's been somewhat overpaid under his current contract - that's been the only real problem with his tenure in Philly. But that consideration is irrelevant to the decision of whether to sign him to a new contract. The past overpayments are a sunk cost. If the choice is between a new contract for Burrell and a new contract for some random free agent, one's just as good as the other.

by taco pal on Nov 28, 2007 12:29 PM EST up reply actions  

According to recent signings
and their production... Burrell was almost... durst i say it... underpaid.

by Alon on Nov 29, 2007 5:09 PM EST up reply actions  

Re: I am worried about our offense
This is part of the reason why I was so high on A-Rod.  Until something drastic changes with its pitching staff (and adding Lidge to the pen and moving Myers to the rotation is not it), this team needs its dominant hitting to succeed.  With just merely above average hitting, it's not a playoff team.

by David S. Cohen on Nov 28, 2007 10:05 AM EST reply actions  

Re: I am worried about our offense
It's important to remember a few things.  

One thing is that the Phillies had 917 EqR last year, despite only having 892 runs.  In other words, they were somewhat unlucky, and a team with the same batting line might be expected to put up 25 more runs-- which would make up for most of the decline in production due to Rowand's departure.

Another thing is that you are posting EqA's-- a rate stat.  Utley and Howard both missed significant time due to injury.  Utley's value was approximately the same when he posted a .309/.379/.527 line in 739 PAs in 2006 as when he posted a .332/.410/.566 line in 613 PAs in 2007.  If he stays healthy, his production shouldn't decline much even if his EqA does drop a lot.  Howard's rate stats are being projected to improve on 2007 by every projection system I've seen so far, and he should have more than 648 PAs, and certainly should have more than the 520 two-legged plate appearances that he had.

by Matt Swartz on Nov 28, 2007 10:05 AM EST reply actions  

Re: I am worried about our offense
While I agree, the problem is that we can't expect everyone to stay healthy.  The Phil's offense was relatively healthy last year.  They had no regular miss a significant amount of time (like where they didn't qualify for the batting title).  I just don't expect them all to perform at the level that they did last year.  

by jonk on Nov 28, 2007 2:51 PM EST up reply actions  

Re: I am worried about our offense
true, its certainly surprising that more people didn't get hurt.  howard and utley both missed a month though.  full seasons from the two of them are enough to compensate losing a full season from anybody other than rollins and burrell.

by Matt Swartz on Nov 28, 2007 5:08 PM EST up reply actions  

Re: I am worried about our offense
I don't know if I agree, or if I think I am going to get full seasons from them.  The good thing about Rowand was, even if you thought he was going to get hurt, the dropoff wasn't that big.

However, I think Utley regresses a bit, mayby 15 points on his average and maybe like 5-8 less HBPs.  That is significant.

by jonk on Nov 28, 2007 5:21 PM EST up reply actions  

Re: I am worried about our offense
But if he doesn't miss a month and therefore contributes a more walks/runs/RB/HRs/H/2b ect won't it more than balance out?
Bleeding Green Nation Philadelphia Eagles Blog

by JasonB on Nov 28, 2007 5:32 PM EST up reply actions  

Re: I am worried about our offense
I don't think anyone can reasonably say the Phillies' health record was unusually lucky last year. It might have been somewhat luckier than average or it might not have, but it was nowhere near pristine, and fell comfortably within the median range. Could be a lot worse next year, but it's not inconceivable that it could be better too.

by taco pal on Nov 28, 2007 5:36 PM EST up reply actions  

Re: I am worried about our offense
I was just talking about the offensive side.  The pitching was a disaster with respect to injuries.

The Phils didn't miss much when their players went down.  Only Howard's replacement wasn't acceptable.  Iguchi played very well for Utley and Werth played better than Victorino.  We were very lucky on the offensive side with respect to injuries and replacement.

by jonk on Nov 28, 2007 5:47 PM EST up reply actions  

Re: I am worried about our offense
I know you're only talking about the offensive side. I just think your conclusion is clearly incorrect.

The Phillies' 2007 lineup, at full strength, was essentially comprised of four superior hitters, one good hitter (Rowand), one middling position (the RFs), and two positions that were basically filler (C and 3B). Of the four most crucial hitters, two missed about 15-20% of the season each, while the other two remained healthy. Rowand also remained healthy.

This doesn't strike me as being particularly unusual at all. Like I said, it seems like only a slightly-healthier-than-average season, if that. Most of the competitive teams around the league had similar experiences.

Atlanta - two key hitters (Chipper, Renteria) missed about a month each.
Chicago - two key hitters (Soriano, Ramirez) missed about a month each.
Milwaukee - looks like Rickie Weeks missed about two months
Houston - no key injuries
Arizona - Chad Tracy missed a little over half the season
Colorado - no key injuries unless you count Willy Taveras
San Diego - the Giles brothers each missed about 1.5 months
Mets - Beltran and Delgado missed about a month each, Moises Alou missed half the year

Some of these teams had more injuries than the Phillies, but not by a wide margin. The only good team in the entire league whose lineup was really ravaged by injuries last year was St. Louis.

by taco pal on Nov 28, 2007 6:18 PM EST up reply actions  

Re: I am worried about our offense
I'm worried about the offense too.  I wasn't quite on board with David and his A-Rod stance (although, if we would've went after him, it wouldn't have upset me...) but I do feel as though it is extremely important for the Phils to value OFFENSE MORE THAN PITCHING.  
Of course, this is completely contrary to baseball's conventional wisdom.  The same conventional wisdom that was shaped and formed during the era's of dead balls and gigantic ballparks.  The same conventional wisdom that was formed when the league spread out the pitching talent amongst 16 teams - not 30.  The same conventional wisdom that did not have to factor in the evolution of hitting (watching previous at-bats on tape during the game, the shrinking of the strike zone, etc...).  
In today's baseball, hitting is more important than ever.  Obviously, it would be great to be able to have both a terrific pitching staff and a monster line-up.  But for this team - IN THIS BALLPARK - I would choose a monster line-up and average pitching over terrific pitching and an average line-up every day of the week....and twice on sunday day games.  
I love the trade for Lidge, was pleased by the push for Lowell, and would be ecstatic if we were able to grab Kuroda.  But I am extremely worried that we will over-emphasize pitching and allow our dynamic offense to decline into mediocrity.  And more than anything, that would be the worst mistake the FO could make.  

by The Avery on Nov 28, 2007 11:02 AM EST reply actions  

Re: I am worried about our offense
It seems pretty clear that the decisionmakers are counting on the pitching being better and the offense being at least a little worse. In the abstract, I'm okay with this, but pitching is so much less predictable than offense even in a neutral context--which OFJOAB is not--that for the Phils I agree that offense pretty much always has to come first.

That said, I think we're still going to see one, maybe two more big pieces added between now and March. If they get the right guys, I'll be fairly confident that they'll score 850-900 runs again, and if the runs allowed drop even a bit, to 780 or so, that's a 90-win team.

Another cause for optimism might be that Ruiz and Howard should be better in '08 than they were this past year.

by dajafi on Nov 28, 2007 12:48 PM EST reply actions  

Re: I am worried about our offense
Actually Utley should be better this year as well assuming he doesn't miss a month.
Bleeding Green Nation Philadelphia Eagles Blog

by JasonB on Nov 28, 2007 1:02 PM EST up reply actions  

Re: I am worried about our offense
In our ballpark, if we drop below 800 runs I don't think there's any chance we win 90 games.  Our worst case scenario should be slightly about 800 - say 810 (avg. 5 runs/game).  And in my opinion, even that's too low.  It's true we need to improve our pitching to be a serious WS contender, but that doesn't mean we can allow our hitting to slip.  Our offense needs to stay as close to 900 runs as possible.  

by The Avery on Nov 28, 2007 3:27 PM EST up reply actions  

Re: I am worried about our offense
The Phils' offense last season was either way, way above average or above average at every position except 3B.  Here's a position by position look using EqA:

C -- Ruiz, .255; Coste, .245  League Average: .244

1B -- Howard, .315  LA: .279

2B -- Utley, .321  LA: .259 (Holy Crud!)

SS -- Rollins, .290 LA: .255

3B -- Helms, .228 (Yuck!); Dobbs, .269  LA: .269

LF -- Burrell, .303  LA: .269

CF -- Rowand, .294  LA:  .263

RF -- Victorino, .272; Werth. .297  LA: .272

P --  Eaton, .182; Garcia, .224; Durbin, .205;  Loshe, .154;  Kendrick, .156; Moyer, - .040  LA: .116

That's a really good offense.  (EqA accounts for league and home park -- the League Average is for the entire major league).

If Victorino is the CF and has a similar year he will be well above league average.  The Phils should get better production from 3B in 2008 -- they almost can't do worse.  Dobbs number is boosted by his other worldly pinch hitting.

Ruiz was a good offensive catcher last season.  There were a LOT of catchers in the .235 or worse range.  I think Ruiz can be better next season.

Howard and Utley missed a lot of time.  Iguchi did pretty well in Utley's place but no 2Bman can replace Utley's production.  Howard started off pretty slowly probably due to injury and off season sloth.  I'm expecting himn to be somewhat better next season.

Rowand will be tough to replace -- even by Rowand.  He had a really good season.  

Rollins was probably at the very top of his ability last season too.

It's possible that a Werth/Snelling job share in RF can be pretty good.  Both have had injury problems (especially Snelling).  But Gillick has been pretty good getting productive corner OFers.  

Their pitchers really helped themselves.  There were a LOT of pitchers who had negative EqAs.  Moyer was the only Phil like that and most of the rest were pretty comfortably above the league average.

Burrell was outstanding last year.

The Phils are counting on a lot of guys having really good years again.  They have good hitters and I don't think they benenfitted from a whole lot of flukiness (Dobbs, yes; Werth, some; Rowand, yes; Rollins, we'll see).

And the black hole that was 3B is nearly certain to improve I think.  

I think it's correct to be concerned that the Phils won't repeat their fabulous run scoring in 2008.  But I think they do have the capability of a repeat.

by smitty @ The Good Phight on Nov 29, 2007 5:00 PM EST reply actions  

Re: I am worried about our offense
I just noticed the EqAs I got from last season are different from Jonk's.  I wonder why?  I got mine from the BP site.

by smitty @ The Good Phight on Nov 29, 2007 5:03 PM EST reply actions  

Re: I am worried about our offense
I dunno, I got mine from BP.  Unless I grabbed the wrong ones, which, we all know is impossible.

by jonk on Nov 30, 2007 10:42 AM EST up reply actions  

Re: I am worried about our offense
The Phils are apparently chasing Geoff Jenkins but think he may be out of their price range...

Geoff Jenkins is out of our price range? The purse strings must be pretty tight this year.

Bleeding Green Nation Philadelphia Eagles Blog

by JasonB on Nov 30, 2007 12:37 PM EST reply actions  

Re: I am worried about our offense
Probably because they only want to bring him in as a part-time player, I'd speculate.

by taco pal on Nov 30, 2007 2:36 PM EST up reply actions  

Re: I am worried about our offense
Isn't Jenkins looking at two years at 8 million simoleans per year?  That's way too much to pay for him.

by smitty @ The Good Phight on Nov 30, 2007 4:10 PM EST up reply actions  

Re: I am worried about our offense
Hmm....so if last year's EQAs look like this:

CF -- Rowand, .294  LA:  .263

RF -- Victorino, .272; Werth. .297  LA: .272

and Victo will play CF with Werth and Dobbs (.269) platooning in RF, isn't the .022 drop from CF only about, say, the difference between 6 instead of 5 months of Howard or Utley?

(or perhaps having a Bruntlett on the bench instead of Nunez...)

by das411 on Dec 4, 2007 12:24 AM EST reply actions  

Re: I am worried about our offense
I guess but really, trying to just use last year's stats as a predictor of next year's performance gets all sorts of bunged up.  Guys will improve or get worse or get hurt.  And we really don't know too much about all of that.

We can get a general idea I think and we can speculate -- e.g. Dobbs and Werth won't be as good but Ruiz and Helms will be better -- and stuff like that.  

I think,in general, the Phils were outstanding last season and better than league average (and in some cases, much, much better) at 8 of the 9 positions in '07.  I think they will have similar results in '08.  

We might see big seasons from guys like Chris Sneeling or someone.  Or one of the big stars might get hurt or have a bad year -- look at Andruw Jones last season.

I think 3B is the big concern offensivly though and I'm pretty confident regarding the other positions.

I think getting rid of Nunez is a big plus regardless.  Losing Rowand's production is almost certain as well (even if they re-sign him).  The rest of it is pretty murky to me.  But I think the overall trend is they will still be close to or at the top of the league.

by smitty @ The Good Phight on Dec 4, 2007 4:20 PM EST up reply actions  

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