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Houston Trade: Phils Get Brad Lidge

Well this gives us some very early off-season answers.  This evening, the Phillies traded Michael Bourn, Geoff Geary, and Mike Costanzo to the Houston Astros for Brad Lidge and Eric Bruntlett.

So, like I said, we have early season answers to some big questions:  we have a new closer in Lidge, we have a new number 2 starter in Brett Myers (moving back to the rotation according to the AP), and we know that Shane Victorino will be starting in the outfield next year.

My preliminary thoughts having 2 minutes to digest this and before heading to bed is that I like this.  I have advocated moving Myers back to the rotation ever since he left it, and I like getting Lidge, who has had his troubles but pitched very well for most of this past season.

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booo!
i beat you to the punch with my diary! in yo face! no worries, you actually analyze it, whereas I do nothing productive. Touche, sir, touche.

by Alon on Nov 7, 2007 11:01 PM EST reply actions  

Re: Houston Trade: Phils Get Brad Lidge
I guess I like this move... I also like getting myers out of the pen, but losing bourne hurts a lot. You cant replace what he could do on the basepath..

by char6587 on Nov 7, 2007 11:18 PM EST reply actions  

Re: Houston Trade: Phils Get Brad Lidge
I like it.  If nothing else, its gonna be easier to get a third starter than a second starter.  Plus, Eric Bruntlett?  Anyone whose top PECOTA comparable is... Bill Pecota, well, they're all right with me.

by DanT on Nov 7, 2007 11:22 PM EST reply actions  

Re: Houston Trade: Phils Get Brad Lidge
I like the trade. If Lidge is Lidge then we just got one of the better closers in the NL AND we essentially landed a top of the rotation starter while we were at it by getting Myers back from the pen. If Lidge is the combustible Lidge from 2006 and the beginning of 07 then not so good.

Weren't we looking at a similar trade back at the trade deadline this season?

by FuquaManuel on Nov 7, 2007 11:23 PM EST reply actions  

Re: Houston Trade: Phils Get Brad Lidge
No trade is without risk. Bourn could turn out to be Willie McGee, Costanzo could be a 25-HR guy in one of the four corners, Geary... well, we know what Geary's deal is.

But given the risk, I think this was a very solid move. Lidge can dominate. The strikeouts, we all know about. His second half wasn't as good as his first half in 2007, but I would guess his knee injury had something to do with that.

(Still, after the Garcia fiasco the Phillies had damn well better make sure he has the clean bill of health.)

Bruntlett has his value off the bench, and that's it.

The big deal here is that Myers goes back to the rotation. Simply put, there was no starter available, certainly not at $20.5 million owed for two years, remotely as good as Myers. So you've got a shift in the closer role from Myers to Lidge, which is probably about even, and a massive upgrade from whoever would have slotted in after Hamels, Moyer, Kendrick and Eaton--let's say Durbin--to Brett Myers.

Lidge is only under contract for one more year, but that doesn't particularly bother me; if he's effective, you extend him, and if a Mathieson or Bisenius or whoever else emerges, that's your closer going forward.

I like.

by dajafi on Nov 7, 2007 11:31 PM EST reply actions  

Re: Houston Trade: Phils Get Brad Lidge
Lidge was pretty brutal in August and September. Does Houston know something about him that we don't? We know they won't give him a physical, just look at his medical records.

by FTN414 on Nov 8, 2007 12:20 AM EST reply actions  

Yes!
This is an absolutely fantastic trade for the Phillies. Bourn is never going to amount to anything  significant as a major leaguer. He's your classic speed guy with no power, a below average hitter that will play good defense and can steal bases. While I think Geary will bounce back from last year, 2006 was a fluke as well. He's a 4.50 ERA reliever. Costanzo has yet to show an ability to hit at any level and I'd be very surprised if he ever becomes an impact player as well.

Lidge is a top tier closer and is the classic needs-a-change-of-scenery guy. I expect he'll be just as good of a closer as Myers was or would be. Even more importantly, this move means Myers will be in the rotation. He has far more value there. Bruntlett is our new (f)utility infielder. No complaints there, I suppose.

Right now the Phillies rotation looks like:
Hamels
Myers
Moyer
Kendrick
Eaton

with Lidge, Gordon, Madson out of the pen.

That looks pretty solid to me. They could certainly use another starter, as I think it's a good chance Kendrick falls back down to earth (or worse) or that Eaton repeats 2006. The bullpen I think can be filled out with internal candidates or cheap pickups. Zagurski could be back and I'd really like the Phillies to give Yoel Hernandez a shot.

Perhaps even more importantly, the Phillies still have money to sign free agents. They need a third baseman or right fielder. The bargain route would be Brad Wilkerson or Geoff Jenkins to platoon with Jayson Werth, both of whom wouldn't cost draft picks. There aren't really any reasonable options at 3B. Lowell is going to get paid way, way more than he deserves. I think the most reasonable top tier free agents for the Phillies would be Andruw Jones, Milton Bradley, or even... Barry Bonds*?

*Bonds will almost certainly be signed for less than he's worth, since many teams won't want him. I certainly don't like him as a person, but he's a damn good baseball player. The Bonds' circus in Philadelphia would be annoying and the prospect of a Burrell/Bonds corner outfield is scary. That said, I'd probably still take him.

by christonabike on Nov 8, 2007 1:35 AM EST reply actions  

Draft Picks
It's also worth noting that if Lidge turns in a good year this year, he's almost certainly a type A free agent in 2009. That means if the Phillies fail to resign him, they'd get a freebie first round pick. Factor that in and this deal looks even better.

by christonabike on Nov 8, 2007 1:40 AM EST reply actions  

Was Bourn a defensive replacement or pinch runner
He had 18 SBs with very few ABs. Did he get a bunch of SBs pinch running?

I think the trade is good for the Phills. Lidge can be a great closer and they didn't give up much for his upside.

by Shamus on Nov 8, 2007 2:28 AM EST reply actions  

Re: Houston Trade: Phils Get Brad Lidge
The one big problem I have with his argument is that Silver is overestimating Costanzo's probable value by just glancing at his homers and translated EqA. He's ignoring a few key points:
  • Costanzo strikes out a lot.
  • He's really bad against lefthanders.
  • And most importantly: His defense at third is, by all accounts, pretty much unacceptable.
I disagree with the notion that Costanzo could be a league-average third baseman right now, and I'm not convinced he'll ever be one.

by Seth @ The Good Phight on Nov 8, 2007 8:40 AM EST up reply actions  

Re: Houston Trade: Phils Get Brad Lidge
The Astros will not be getting 11 years of below-market performance from Costanzo and Bourn because they will not be in the majors that long.  Bourn looks like he could be league average as a speed guy with average on base skills and above average defense and will contribute his 5 years.

The times I've seen Costanzo (sorry for the lack of diaries, I'm going tonight) his defense is horrible and his swing is long.  To project him as league average is a strrrrrrrrretch.  Other than the power in AA, I don't see a lot of upside.  Against better pitching in the AFL  (small sample size), he has slugged .250.

Here is a link to an interview with Costanzo.  He's even creepy on camera.

by PhoenixPhilly on Nov 8, 2007 9:24 AM EST up reply actions  

Re: Houston Trade: Phils Get Brad Lidge
There are a few things wrong with this, but one thing that would have been right but not mentioned.

First, while this is completely sujective, I think he overrates both players.  However, there ain't much that can be said about that.

Second, neither had a spot on this Phillies team and only Costanzo had a shot to be a regular in 2009 if we were lucky.  Both are getting older and neither provided immediate help.  

Third, I think the two draft picks will likely help the Phillies more overall than either Bourn or Costanzo will.  

Lastly, this wasn't a bullpen move, this was a starting rotation move.

The major drawback is that we just traded away our only two young hitters in our organization over A ball.  While we didn't really need them, it would have been nice to be able to package them in separate deals.

by jonk on Nov 8, 2007 10:05 AM EST up reply actions  

Re: Houston Trade: Phils Get Brad Lidge
Update from Nate Silver"

I still don't buy his reasoning, mainly because he's overvaluing Bourn and Costanzo.  I've yet to hear anything outstanding from anyone who has watched Costanzo play, and while Bourn could be a starting CF, he is replaceable.  In a decision to keep either Bourn or Victorino, I'd pick Shane every time.

by Alex Falzone on Nov 8, 2007 5:34 PM EST up reply actions  

Re: Houston Trade: Phils Get Brad Lidge
Yeah, I'm with you. I just sent him an e-mail making the same points, and I'll post if I get a response.

by dajafi on Nov 8, 2007 5:44 PM EST up reply actions  

Re: Houston Trade: Phils Get Brad Lidge
So the Phillies get their high-strikeout, combustible closer from Houston, and Ed Wade gets his proven veteran middle reliever and speedy, punchless outfielder.

The cirrrrcle of life!!!

by WholeCamels on Nov 8, 2007 7:12 AM EST reply actions  

Re: Houston Trade: Phils Get Brad Lidge
I agree with the notion that this move is better for getting Myers back in the rotation than it is for acquiring Lidge himself.  Lidge vs. Myers in the 'pen is a wash, I think.  But having a solid to excellent #2 in the rotation could be huge.

by WholeCamels on Nov 8, 2007 7:13 AM EST reply actions  

Re: Houston Trade: Phils Get Brad Lidge
Probably don't know how good this deal is until Lidge's first pitch after the first HR he gives up in CBP. But, it's hard not to like Myers back to the rotation, for all of the reasons everyone's already listed.

by gr on Nov 8, 2007 10:03 AM EST reply actions  

Re: Houston Trade: Phils Get Brad Lidge
Hopefully the change of location will help Lidge get back to his stuff from 2005.  And we got a decent utility player also.  I like this trade a lot.  We get a top tier closer (hopefully) and a utility player that has proven that he can hit at this level.  We gave up a corner player that may/may not make it in the big show.  Let's be honest, his swing  is a disaster and one littler thing wrong with it and he's in bad shape.  Plus he and the curve ball don't get along.  We also lost Bourn.  Great speed, but hacks like a Canadian lumberjack and when he does make contact, maybe it gets out of the infield.  And no big deal over Geary.  His one great year was over two seasons ago.  To be perfectly honest, I think we totally hosed the Astros here.  We get two players that can produce and they get three that may or may not.... at some point.  After all of the stupid ass things that Wade did in Philly, it's ironic that this is his first move.  Karma rules!  Honestly, what probably helped us here is that Wade knew thee three players and was convinced in his head that they can be key parts of the Astros' lineup.  Maybe next week we can send him a pair of A-ball guys for say.... Roy Oswalt...  Come on Ed, you know you want to pull the trigger!

by foos05 on Nov 8, 2007 10:31 AM EST reply actions  

Re: Houston Trade: Phils Get Brad Lidge
I love this move for reasons already stated: I can't see Costanzo developing into something with any real value, Bourn is redundant with Victorino and there are legitimate doubts about his ability to hit at the major league level, and Geary is nothing special. But what really makes this deal, IMO, is the salary. Geary was about to get (more) expensive and Lidge is cheap for an closer of his caliber. And, if Lidge leaves, you probably get a chance to replenish the farm system. It also sets them up really well for the rest of the offseason. Not including a hefty raise for Howard, I have them at about 70 million now. Certaintly enough to make a nice run at Kuroda and still have enough to fill out the rest of the roster nicely. Looks like a strong candidate for the best move of the Gillick era.

by enterpsmith on Nov 8, 2007 10:54 AM EST reply actions  

Re: Houston Trade: Phils Get Brad Lidge
Great move.  And you're right, probably the best of his era...  But after Freddy Garcia, Wes Helms, Adam Eaton, kinda hard not to be his best move.  Maybe he'll make a better one in the next few weeks and surprise us all.

You know, I was kind of against going after A-Rod, but after making this deal which gave us a top closer, a number 2 starter and a quality utility guy...  I would be okay with selling our soul, and forking over $300Mil.  Look at it this way, we wouldn't have to loose any more farmhands and we have a lot more leverage with Howard down the road.

by foos05 on Nov 8, 2007 11:01 AM EST up reply actions  

Re: Houston Trade: Phils Get Brad Lidge
Another positive is that we didn't lose our first round pick...yet.

by jonk on Nov 8, 2007 11:59 AM EST reply actions  

Re: Houston Trade: Phils Get Brad Lidge
This move is making more and more sense by the minute, but it is still not complete.  We need to address three issues first:
  1. We still need to re-sign Romero.  Does anyone really trust Gordon and/or Madson as our set-up guys?  We'll probably 'overpay' for him, but I think he is the key to our bullpen.  
  2. We still need to sign another starter.  What happens if Lidge is unable to handle the Philly fans/media and we need to move Myers back to the closer role and use Lidge as a set-up man?  What happens if Eaton is out for the year (or is even worse than he was last year)?  We have the cash - let's spend it.
  3. Assuming we let Rowand walk (IMO, a good move considering what he is asking), we need a legitimate 5 or 6-hole hitter.  This can be addresed numerous ways...A. Jones, M. Tejada, etc. but the point is that it still needs to be addressed.  Our lineup should not be considered complete yet.  
Or....we could just say f*ck it and go after A-Rod and have the greatest infield of all-time.  At this point, I wouldn't even be upset if they did that.

by The Avery on Nov 8, 2007 12:13 PM EST reply actions  

Re: Houston Trade: Phils Get Brad Lidge
All good points--though I do actually trust Madson as a setup man--but there are still three-plus months (looooong months) until camp opens. Gillick is looking for another starter, and I'll be very surprised if they don't either bring back Rowand or get another legit bat. This was a damn good start.

by dajafi on Nov 8, 2007 12:17 PM EST up reply actions  

Re: Houston Trade: Phils Get Brad Lidge
I think there's a few candidates for another starter. The Phils are after the guy Kuroda from Japan, Wolf is on their radar, and Lohse is still an option that I wouldn't mind.
Bleeding Green Nation Philadelphia Eagles Blog

by JasonB on Nov 8, 2007 12:42 PM EST up reply actions  

Re: Houston Trade: Phils Get Brad Lidge
I'd hope to land Kuroda out of that bunch.  Lohse will want way too much for what he's worth.  Although I still like Wolf and respect what he did for us, the talk on Kuroda is pretty good and supposedly he has a really good sinker...  perfect for OFJOAB.  It's time to put up or shut up.  Plus adding that starter will move Eaton to the pen as a long guy.  We're gonna have to pay him because no one will take him.

by foos05 on Nov 8, 2007 1:00 PM EST up reply actions  

Re: Houston Trade: Phils Get Brad Lidge
Let's just hope all it takes is a change of scenery. Across the board, Lidge has been a shadow of himself since the 2005 postseason. The K numbers are still great, but have dropped, and the rest of his numbers have gotten worse. We gave up little of present value and little in terms of long term value, so the chance of this working is high, especially with Myers back in the rotation.

by FTN414 on Nov 8, 2007 12:22 PM EST reply actions  

Re: Houston Trade: Phils Get Brad Lidge
I think his key is bringing his walks back down.  Where he got into trouble was when he walked someone and then gave up a big hit following.  If those get back down to where they were, I think the rest will fall back in place too.  They were up almost 50%.  2.89/9ip to 4.18

by foos05 on Nov 8, 2007 12:29 PM EST up reply actions  

Re: Houston Trade: Phils Get Brad Lidge
First of all, very cool graphic.

Second, I see what you're saying but another way to look at these numbers is that he had two-thirds of a phenomenal season in 2007. Take away the disastrous April and the pretty bad September (when presumably the knee was bugging him), and you've got a guy who pitched 48 innings, allowed 28 hits and 14 walks, and struck out 64 over a four-month stretch.

I suspect that if we looked at Cordero or Rivera, we could find similar reasons for concern and optimism both. But getting either of those guys would have involved surrendering a first-round pick and committing for multiple years at eight figures per. This was a pretty slick alternative and didn't require giving up any of our (very few) really good prospects.

by dajafi on Nov 8, 2007 1:30 PM EST up reply actions  

Re: Houston Trade: Phils Get Brad Lidge
Lidge is a risk.  I think everyone understands that.  My first initial reaction was one of anger, but after thinking about the other options that are out there, I think it's a good gamble.  We're basically giving the guy a one-year tryout at a reasonable price - and the kicker is that we don't have to give up any draft picks to get him, and if we lose him we'll gain a draft pick.  Beautiful (and very long-sighted given that Gillick is gone after this year).  The key to all of this is that they continue...
They need to get another starter, they need to re-sign Romero, and we need a solid RH bat with some pop.  If we do these things, I can't wait until Clearwater.

by The Avery on Nov 8, 2007 2:08 PM EST reply actions  

Re: Houston Trade: Phils Get Brad Lidge
     FWIW, I think that it's a good deal for Houston, partly because I'm higher on Bourn long term than most of you. Geary oughta regress (progress) to the norm next year. And, while Costanzo may not look like much, before this year he didn't look like ANYTHING. So he's progressing and might turn into at least a role player for them. That's one THIN organization right now, so he's got a shot there. Houston's in such a state now that a "closer" like Lidge is a bit of a luxury. And I get the idea that Bruntlett was turning into one of those guys that was irrationally in favor with the management down there, so maybe Wade was wise to get rid of him. So I won't blast Ed.

     Still, it could be a very good deal for the Phillies as well, provided Lidge doesn't blow up or Bourn turn into, say, Brett Butler. I agree with the idea that you've got to figure shifting Myers back into the equation, although I agree with Silver that they could have done so without the deal & that they could have just played Bourn in center. (Probably should have, absent a big Of bat addition?) Some underlooked points?

1.) Bruntlett brings some good news and some bad news. The Good? He'll take over the Nunez role but with a better bat and maybe even a little more versatility. The Bad? Still sounds like a committment to Dobbs/Helms at third.

2.) Silver wrote of them jumping the gun with this deal; could have waited, etc. But I wonder if moving so quickly to make a deal that most will regard as a positive one might have some influence with potential FA signs. "Hey! These guys are SERIOUS about winning now." That sort of thing.

       

by Dalton Bouchee on Nov 8, 2007 7:01 PM EST reply actions  

Re: Houston Trade: Phils Get Brad Lidge
Man oh man, first it was the Phillies in the playoffs, then it was TGPers actually thinking Gillick made a good move, what impossibility will we see next??

(...please don't say "ARod in red pinstripes!")

Anyone know how much $$ Lidge is on the books for in 08?

by das411 on Nov 9, 2007 12:49 AM EST reply actions  

Re: Houston Trade: Phils Get Brad Lidge
No one knows yet.  Arbitration... I'm guessing 7-8 million ball park.  Maybe a little less.

by Homer on Nov 9, 2007 10:20 AM EST up reply actions  

Re: Houston Trade: Phils Get Brad Lidge
Coolio, so basically the $$ from either Garcia or Lieber is now going towards Lidge and a likely raise for Myers. Works for me!

by das411 on Nov 9, 2007 12:05 PM EST reply actions  

Re: Houston Trade: Phils Get Brad Lidge
A raise for Myers? Not sure where you get that. He's locked in for, I think, $8 million this year and $12.5 million in 2009.

by dajafi on Nov 9, 2007 12:20 PM EST up reply actions  

Re: Houston Trade: Phils Get Brad Lidge
Myers is making more than last year, I believe thats what he means...  Lidge's 7 million or so plus raise from 5 to 8 million for Myers = the 10 million for Garcia.

by Homer on Nov 9, 2007 1:56 PM EST up reply actions  

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