Would you trade...

by phatj on Apr 12, 2007 3:09 PM EDT

Carlos Carrasco for Mark Teahen?

There's an interesting discussion of this very question here, and I thought I'd take the pulse of the TGP readers.

My personal feeling is that if Teahen's shoulder is 100% healthy (he had off-season surgery on his labrum, I believe -- a particularly worrisome bit of anatomy), I'd do this in a NY minute and I'd sweeten the deal if needed.

Teahen is an above-average 3B, both offensively and according to scouts and stats, defensively as well, right now. He's an inexpressibly vast upgrade over Nunez, and a big step up over Helms as well. And he's young so he's likely to get better, and four years from free agency.

What do the rest of you think?

Poll

Well? Wouldja?

0 recs | Comment 6 comments

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Re: Would you trade...

To me this is almost the definition of no-brainer. I like Carrasco, and I think he could be a #2 in the big leagues. But starting pitching depth is the Phils' big organizational strength, and third base is their ongoing hole at the big league (and upper minors) level. Maybe Costanzo will put it all together, but he's at least a year away, more likely two, from contributing in the bigs. Henry and Cardenas are much farther off; even if they make it, our current core will be at the end of or out of their primes by then.

I'd do this deal in a hot minute, and probably would throw in a second legit prospect arm (Happ, say) if need be.

by dajafi on Apr 12, 2007 4:11 PM EDT 0 recs

talent is much cheaper than proven talent.

a year ago, i was on the teahen bandwagon. i wanted to see him in phillies red because i had a feeling he would pull out of his funk (i also wanted kory casto, and he's hitting under the mendoza line this season).

the only thing that has changed between then and now is that teahen has 3 months of absolute raking under his belt, which led to his value skyrocketing.

a year ago, i was proposing a teahen for happ trade. this year, you mention happ as a throwin to be packaged with the phillies top minor league arm in the hopes of acquiring teahen.

point being: you can either look back on the deals you hoped to make, and try to rectify that mistake by pulling the trigger at a later date, or you can look back on the factors that led you to identify teahen as a breakout candidate and look to acquire someone who currently fits the profile teahen did back in the early summer of '06.

justin huber, KC. sergio pedroza, TB. jonny gomes, TB. nate mclouth, PIT. scottie hairston, AZ. ryan spilborghs, COL

those are the kinds of names that should be looked at in the hopes of adding offense to this team.

by variablesdont on Apr 12, 2007 4:33 PM EDT up 0 recs

first, i called it:

http://www.thegoodphight.com/comments/2006/6/16/114216/936/3#3

secondly, no i would not make that trade. i love teahen, and i love the production he would give the phillies if acquired, but carrasco would be too high a price to pay.

i realize that tinstaapp applies, but stockpiling young arms like carrasco, drabek, and garcia is the only way the phillies will have a chance of obtaining a rotation with more than two starters that have ACE stuff. hamels and myers can dominate games on the mound. but you can't win 100 games with only 2 starters. you need to commit to developing young arms while knowing full well that 3/4 of them will blowup by the time they reach AAA.

i'm fine with dealing happ. i'm fine with dealing kendrick. but you don't panic after 6 losses in april, and trade an arm with the upside of carlos carrasco.

by variablesdont on Apr 12, 2007 4:17 PM EDT 0 recs

Re: first, i called it:

Wow. I remember how big a Teahen fan you were. Carrasco's '06 was good enough that you'd value his potential, three years away from the bigs with all the potential injury and developmental shortfalls, more than the likely above-average-for-cheap production you'd get from Teahen?

by dajafi on Apr 12, 2007 4:41 PM EDT up 0 recs

i don't think carrasco is 3 years away.

if he improves on what he did last year, there's no reason why he wouldn't be a candidate to start next season in the ML rotation. but that's a 90th percentile projection.

i see carrasco's 2007 going one of two ways; he'll either dominate like gallardo and get a promotion to AA in june, or he'll be a solid 2.5-3.0 era, top of the rotation innings eater for clearwater from april to august, followed by a tour of duty in the Arizona fall league.

under both scenarios, he would be the ironpigs opening day starter in april '08, due for a callup mid season.

and, as i pointed out in my above post, i think there are comperable options that could be acquired for lesser packages.

by variablesdont on Apr 12, 2007 4:56 PM EDT up 0 recs

Re: Would you trade...

Would you trade Carrasco for say... Howard? Looking at Back She Goes, it looks like PECOTA has Teahen valued at about 5 WARP the next few years. Didn't Howard have a WARP of like 8.5 last year? So heck yea I make the trade for Teahen if it was available.

by Homer on Apr 13, 2007 10:42 AM EDT 0 recs