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Deep Hurting: Myers to SET-UP ROLE

Word came down less than a day after some lumpy grayish endomorph solicited fisticuffs from the Delaware Valley's Number One Asshole and Burger King devotee that the Phillies' opening day starting pitcher was being relegated to set-up duty, and was being replaced with Peak Oil Lieber.

I am stunned out of my normally modest capacity for eloquence.  If you want to put a starter in the bullpen, shove Eaton there.  Jesus... this team deserves to lose.

Clearly a desperation move for Manuel.  I'd be surprised if he made it to May 1st at this point.

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Re: Deep Hurting: Myers to SET-UP ROLE
It's mind-boggling how bad an idea this is. It's actually an accomplishment of sorts, a staggering triumph of bad ideas, the Mona Lisa or Cheops Pyramid of bad ideas.

Myers is the team's best starter. He had TWO BAD STARTS, in cold weather. He's got three or four effective pitches.

Lieber stinks right now. His terrible performance may or may not be related to how he's being used... but AT BEST, you're replacing one of the top 20 or so starters in the league with a guy who's very slightly above league average. And you're cutting that superior pitcher's innings from around 200 to, at most, 90.

Astonishing. Would that the calendar read April 1.

Fire 'em all.

by dajafi on Apr 18, 2007 5:13 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: Deep Hurting: Myers to SET-UP ROLE
Wow!  I've been slammed at work today.  I'm shocked by this.

by David S. Cohen on Apr 18, 2007 5:22 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: Deep Hurting: Myers to SET-UP ROLE
In some rough starts... Myers still has 19 Ks in 51 1/3 innings.

Between this and Cholly losing it... I'd say May 1st is generous. Something needs to shake this team up. They had no fight at all last night.

Bleeding Green Nation Philadelphia Eagles Blog

by JasonB on Apr 18, 2007 5:24 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

By the way
Didn't Myers say he wanted to close this spring?
Bleeding Green Nation Philadelphia Eagles Blog

by JasonB on Apr 18, 2007 5:28 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: By the way
I'd merely be very annoyed rather than bazooka nuclear pissed if I felt Myers would be used as a "bullpen ace" getting the high-leverage work regardless of inning, rather than a modern "set-up man" or "closer."  But I'd be very surprised if this were anything other than a "Myers in the 8th" situation.

by WholeCamels on Apr 18, 2007 5:40 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: By the way
There are organizations that might use Myers, or any high-value bullpen arm (think Rivera in '96) this way. Unfortunately, we don't happen to root for one of them.

by dajafi on Apr 18, 2007 5:55 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Finally
I was worried we might have a good rotation down the line. Good thing we solved that issue.

by Alon on Apr 18, 2007 6:00 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Good God
I was busy all afternoon.  On the drive home, I happen to turn on ESPN920, and Radano is being interviewed about moving Myers to the pen.  I about drove off the damn road.  This is inconceivable in its stupidity and lack of foresight.  And per Radano, this is a whole season move, barring a catastrophic injury to one of the starters.  Opening Day starter to set up role.  Brilliant.

by Alex Falzone on Apr 18, 2007 6:31 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: Deep Hurting: Myers to SET-UP ROLE
I realize that this is an unscientific way to look at things, but the team is playing terrible baseball right now, and there does exist a chance that both pitchers will do better in their new roles than in their old ones. Or at least one will do better. The bullpen is terrible, costing them several games; Myers certainly sounds better than Madsen or Lieber in the pen; and Lieber doesn't sound much worse than Myers in a starting role, the way Myers has been pitching.

But beyond all that, they can just change their minds next week if they want to, despite Manuel's saying the move is for the whole season. So this move can be only SO idiotic--especially considering that if it doesn't work, Cholly gets fired and Myers and Lieber can flip spots again. How many games can it cost them? They're losing every night anyway.

by dog of the south on Apr 18, 2007 6:43 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: Deep Hurting: Myers to SET-UP ROLE
Let's take a deep breath here and look at this move. Desperation? Probably. But it isn't an awful move and makes a lot of sense on a lot of levels.

First of all, the Phils are not going to win anything with the current bullpen. Bottom line. In any close game, they are not going to be able to get it done. Every guy out there needs to be slotted down one or two roles. At least one. Madsen is ill-suited for the big situations. I happen to think Myers could thrive in those situations. You move Geary, Alfie and Smith down and it makes every one of them better. No reason Brett can't close. Let's face it, Gordon seems to be hanging on by a thread.

For this reason, I blame Gillick more than Charlie. Manuel said repeatedly he needs bullpen quality. Gillick acquired Alfonseca and this Rosario guy. Stand Pat blew it.

This move makes Lieber a useful pitcher again. And he is a useful starter. Nobody said this is a permanent move, but if Brett is all for it -- it could be the spark that gets everybody going. Hell, if the staff ace is willing to do this, it has to make everybody else pumped up. Several great starters have transitioned to great bullpen guys -- Smoltz, Eck, Righetti...

Give it a chance. It just might work. A team 3-9 has to make bold moves.

by philsme on Apr 18, 2007 6:50 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: Deep Hurting: Myers to SET-UP ROLE
Agreed, this move should have been made two months ago but it's not too late to try and salvage something...amazing how the kings of preaching "small sample size" are bringing out the knives after only 12 games...

If Lieber is more effective as a starter than Myers had been, and Brett in the bullpen is better than Lieber thus far (which is not exactly asking much from either of them), then how does this move not improve the team?

by das411 on Apr 18, 2007 7:34 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Small Sample Size?
Myers gives you 215 IP of quality, 2nd starter material.    In his current role, given Jon Papelbon as an example last year, you can expect 80 IP from Myers.  

Jon Lieber sucked in the pen.  Big surprise there.  As a starter, he's barely league-average.  So you're replacing 200+ innings of very good pitching for 200+ innings of mediocre (at best) pitching.  I don't see how that's an improvement.

Lost in all this is the fact that sure, the bullpen as currently constructed blows.  But at least they had leads to blow.  Replacing Myers with Lieber decreases the odds that the bullpen will inherit leads to protect.  

What if Garcia gets hurt again?  Or Eaton?  Or if Lieber doesn't work out?  You can't yo-yo Myers back and forth between the two roles.  If you're moving him to the pen, you have to commit to that.  See Madson, Ryan, 2006.  So ultimately, you're losing all of Myers' innings as a starter, replacing those innings with inferior pitchers, and then saying that the ~80 innings he'll pitch in the pen will make up for that.  That's foolhardy, at best.  And considering we're discussing 200 innings, that's hardly a small sample size.

by Alex Falzone on Apr 18, 2007 8:11 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Totally agree
It makes no sense at all. They didn't give Myers "starter money" this offseason to be a setup guy.

His value as a start far outweighs his value in the 8th inning.

This is just the last straw. A head needs to roll...

Bleeding Green Nation Philadelphia Eagles Blog

by JasonB on Apr 18, 2007 9:04 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

What's worse...
Is that the entire sports world is mocking us right now. Everything I read, hear, and watch is dumbfounded at this move and/or laughing about it. That and Cholly losing it on Eskin. Oh and also the Phils not realizing how many outs they had against the Mets.

Total laughingstock.

Bleeding Green Nation Philadelphia Eagles Blog

by JasonB on Apr 18, 2007 9:05 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

the hell of it
is that at some point, probably sooner rather than later, Manuel will be fired, and at some point after that, Gillick will be gone. The odds are that, before or after the second event, the team will have a stretch of decent play--like the last two months last year--and things will seem "okay."

Then they'll have another of these inexplicable failures, and we'll have another conversation like this, and the only constant will be the asshats in the owner's box and executive suites.

The Phillies rot from the head, and I have no faith that any of this will ever get sustainably better until the jackasses sell the team.  

by dajafi on Apr 18, 2007 9:19 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Unfortunately
I think you are absolutely right.
Bleeding Green Nation Philadelphia Eagles Blog

by JasonB on Apr 19, 2007 9:25 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Deep Hurting: Myers to SET-UP ROLE
In the current climate this is an awful move.  Myers will be used sparingly in situations where we would NEED him.  Add in the fact that there will be even fewer games where we'd need him since we'll have fewer leads going into late innings.

If, in some unbelievable fashion, the Phils actually started to manage the game dynamically and used ALL their pitchers like this, then it would be the best move in the history of baseball (well, second to moving the Babe from the mound).  Sadly, we all know this is not the case.

by jonk on Apr 18, 2007 8:43 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: Deep Hurting: Myers to SET-UP ROLE
The thing that gets me is that, yeah, they haven't played great out of the gate (and maybe that makes things seem worse than they are), but at the same time, this is a team that's playing behind all 3 of BP's adjusted records.  If they have 6 wins right now, as their 3rd order record suggests they should be, then we're not even having this conversation.  They'll be a 12 game period, I'm sure, later in the year when they go 9-3 and really shouldn't be more than 6-6.  It simply isn't time to panic.

I think it's telling that the analysis in the newspaper is basically, "Phils suck. Gas Prices high." This from the same group of writers that, to my memory, uniformally picked the Phillies to win somewhere between 85-92 games.  All of a sudden 12 games undoes everyone's predictions?  In many cases, the standings on June 1 don't really tell us a whole lot about how teams stack up, how can the standings on April 18 be meaningful?  Which is not to argue that the Phillies don't have flaws that need to be corrected.  But the notion that the season is teetering at the brink is pretty insane, too.

Moving Myers to the pen reflects that, unfortunately, Phillies management doesn't understand this.  Even if the Phillies were 3-9 bad right now, it wouldn't be time to panic.  This a close division and this is not a team that can afford self-inflicted wounds like this.

by enterpsmith on Apr 18, 2007 9:43 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: Deep Hurting: Myers to SET-UP ROLE
Myers gives you 215 IP of quality, 2nd starter material.    In his current role, given Jon Papelbon as an example last year, you can expect 80 IP from Myers.

And Papelbaum is back in the pen isn't he?

Jon Lieber sucked in the pen.  Big surprise there.  As a starter, he's barely league-average.  So you're replacing 200+ innings of very good pitching for 200+ innings of mediocre (at best) pitching.  I don't see how that's an improvement.

Actually, Lieber is league average in the first half of seasons, and quite an excellent pitcher in the second half. He has demonstrated this over several seasons. The Phils are probably figuring their hitting will picks up. It almost has to. With this move, they gain a pitcher by bringing Lieber back to the rotation, back to usefulness.

Lost in all this is the fact that sure, the bullpen as currently constructed blows.  But at least they had leads to blow.  Replacing Myers with Lieber decreases the odds that the bullpen will inherit leads to protect.  

Given that Myers has a 9.65 era, I am not sure of your logic here. No, they haven't had many leads period.

What if Garcia gets hurt again?  Or Eaton?  Or if Lieber doesn't work out?  You can't yo-yo Myers back and forth between the two roles.  If you're moving him to the pen, you have to commit to that.  See Madson, Ryan, 2006.  So ultimately, you're losing all of Myers' innings as a starter, replacing those innings with inferior pitchers, and then saying that the ~80 innings he'll pitch in the pen will make up for that.  That's foolhardy, at best.  And considering we're discussing 200 innings, that's hardly a small sample size.

What if any pitcher gets hurt? That will hurt any team. Not just the Phillies.

by philsme on Apr 18, 2007 11:06 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: Deep Hurting: Myers to SET-UP ROLE
Ya know, this move might revolutionize baseball. Seriously. Take your best pitcher and move him into the bullpen. I mean, hell, Johan Santana was pretty effective before they moved him into the starting rotation. Why, the Twins are one Juan Rincon injury away from needing a new set-up man--moving Santana into that role prematurely takes care of that worry!

Let's continue this thinking outside the box. Why don't they flip Jimmy Rollins and Ryan Howard in the batting order? After all, Howard's got a great OBP--perfect for setting the table for the big power hitters like Rollins!

As for the Phils' bullpen... why not get Hamels in there too? I mean, hell, what if Flash Gordon goes down--who'd be the closer!? We can groom Hamels for that role, and it'd prolong his career to boot, since he'd be putting fewer innings on his glass-like arm!

This could work in other sports too. Why not move Brian Westbrook to wide receiver, to help fix the Eagles' lack of depth there??

The possibilities are endless! Kudos, Charlie Manuel. Kudos on thinking outside the box!

by maxr on Apr 18, 2007 11:51 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Haha actually
the only statistically proven way to maximize your runs produced using a batting order would be to go in descending order from highest OBP to lowest... Something like Howard/Burrel/Utley/Rollins/Victorino /Helms/Rowand/Starting Pitcher/Barajas would probably maximize the amount of runs we score. The difference being about 1 win in the standings in a good year, and the statistical logic being you want the guys who make the fewest outs getting the most at bats

by Alon on Apr 19, 2007 12:08 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Deep Hurting: Myers to SET-UP ROLE
We have officially become a laughingstock. Here is a blog post about Manuel: http://blog.washingtonpost.com/dcsportsbog/2007/04/charlie_manuel_explains_all.html. Here is the part that stings:

"Finally, out of the blue, Manuel drops this: He's putting his No. 1 starter, Brett Myers, into the bullpen. There was five seconds of silence. Literally. I timed it later. Then laughter. Much laughter. The beat writers attempted to convince Manuel that he was joking. They stared at each other. Literally, jaws were dropped. One writer offered to bet Manuel $100 that he was kidding. Finally, they realized he was serious, and they launched into the pitching staff inquisition."

by Celebre Twins on Apr 20, 2007 10:24 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: Deep Hurting: Myers to SET-UP ROLE
i can't stand the sports writers and fans down here. dc is a horrible sports town, devoid of any character whatsoever. being too bland to be a laughing stock is nothing to be proud of.

however, this deserves a mention:

When we eventually tracked down Myers, someone asked if he'd be able to throw harder now that he was working in shorter bursts.

"Let me let you direct that question to my arm," Myers said, putting his arm in the writer's face.

for a guy like myers who's not particularly cool in anyway, that's a pretty good get-away-from-me line.

by gr on Apr 20, 2007 10:50 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

DC sports
I'd agree for the most part, but DC sports bloggers are some of the best around.
Bleeding Green Nation Philadelphia Eagles Blog

by JasonB on Apr 20, 2007 3:28 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Deep Hurting: Myers to SET-UP ROLE
One lousy out from Gordon and Manuel looks like a genius. Lieber pitched terrific. Myers came in with efficient gas.

I liked this move when Charlie announced it and it looked good tonight, right up til Hatteburg sent one out of the park.

Manuel made a bold move. Now he needs to make another. Gordon is a setup man, nothing more. He needs to move Myers into the closer's role.

by philsme on Apr 20, 2007 11:29 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: Deep Hurting: Myers to SET-UP ROLE
I agree that Gordon isn't an adequate closer anymore, but I still think it's foolish to put Myers in the pen, even if the idea is to eventually make him the closer. 200+ innings of good to great pitching will always be more valuable than 60 innings of possibly great pitching. Besides, Myers throws enough pitches well that he should be starting. The reason why Mariano Rivera is a closer is NOT because he's great at it. It's because he only throws one type of pitch. If he threw 3 pitches as well as his cutter, he'd be a starter.

by maxr on Apr 21, 2007 7:46 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Deep Hurting: Myers to SET-UP ROLE

There's more to closin/starting than how many pithes you thow. And if I hear one more person equate the 220 innings as more important than the 80 innings as a reliever I'm going to scream.

What if those 80 innings as a reliever cost you 10 games? Suddenly they seem a lot more important, don't they? Those 80 inning are almosy all going to be in high-pressure, game-in-the-balance situations. You cant't simply compare innings.

And Mariano Rivera doesn't throw one pitch. He is a closer precisely because he's a genius at it -- and it happens to be a pretty crucial role. Watching these Phillies, how could anyone not understand how crucial the 'pen is?

by philsme on Apr 22, 2007 1:39 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: Deep Hurting: Myers to SET-UP ROLE
The way relievers are used is still stupid.  Many of those 80 innings are going to be in high-leverage situations, but modern usage (and the Save stat) dictate that the closer comes in with a three run lead in the 9th, not quite "high-pressure."

If there were some indication that a manager were willing to use his brain and turn-back-the-clock a bit, using his best reliever in any late inning pressure situation (there's some indication that Francona might be doing this in Boston w/ Papelbon), then I might be able to stomach this move.  As it is, we're eventually going to see lots of 7th and 8th inning games blown open thanks to the likes of Gordon, Madson, Smith, and the rest of the Pig Pen, while presumptive closer Myers sits on the bench, waiting for the Save situation.

by WholeCamels on Apr 22, 2007 7:56 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Deep Hurting: Myers to SET-UP ROLE
Hey, I completely agree re. Mariano Rivera: he's a genius at throwing the cutter. But that IS his only pitch. It's just that he throws it so well, he doesn't need another pitch.

Look, John Smoltz was fantastic as a closer, but they moved him back to the rotation--even when they only had scrubs to take his place as closer--because he was too valuable as a starter, which is largely a result of him being able to throw multiple pitches really well.

Papelbon apparently can throw more than just hit fastball, which is why they wanted him to be a starter again. But watching him close out the Yanks yesterday, against the four batters he faced I only saw him throw ONE non-fastball pitch. But he got away with throwing only fastballs because relievers don't need to have to throw more than one or two different pitches.

And I agree with Mr. Baker here about using the best reliever in the highest-leverage situation, regardless of "roles" (e.g., "closers ONLY come in in the 9th with a 1-3 run lead, EVERYONE knows that!!).

But why are the chances Manuel will ever do this?

by maxr on Apr 22, 2007 9:36 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

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