Charting a masterpiece

by FTN414 on Apr 29, 2007 12:37 PM EDT

[editor's note, by dajafi] Promoted to the front page--great stuff.

Something I've started to do this season, that I've wanted to do in the past, is charting the pitches of a starting pitcher. With the help of TIVO and some rudimentary, homemade charts, I've started to get the hang of it, and I wanted to share my first effort here, Cole Hamels 15K performance against Cincinnati on April 21. My scanner isn't working, so I can't upload my charts, but I can share some interesting results from the game.

First, some raw numbers. Cole threw 115 pitches, including 82 for strikes, almost 2.5 strikes for every ball. Of the 10 non strikeouts he recorded, five came on the ground and five in the air.

Overall pitch selection --

Fastballs: 68 (59%)
Changeups: 40 (35%)
Sliders: 6 (5%)
Undefined: 1 (This pitch was thrown as they came back from commerical on the Reds feed, the pitch speed/location was never shown)

I know this is nothing new, that Hamels is a two pitch pitcher, but it still astounds me that he is a two pitch pitcher without a breaking ball. Lots of guys have gotten by with fastball/curve, fastball/slider, etc etc, but to be able to dominate a lineup, as a starting pitcher, with just a fastball/changeup is outstanding. Throwing 115 pitches, and only throwing 6 sliders shows the confidence he has in his change, and the lack of confidence he has in his slider/slurve.

1st pitch selection --

Fastball: 17 (53%)
Changeup: 12 (38%)
Slider: 2 (6%)
Undefined: 1 (same as above)

This is one of his better statistics, I think. He's not afraid to throw his changeup early. What seems a bit weird is that he threw 2 of his 6 sliders on the opening pitch of an AB, and both were for balls. If he's trying to just lob it over to get ahead, it's not working. Maybe he'd be better holding onto it and snapping it off after a hitter has seen 3 changeups.

Pitch Selection by inning ---

1st: 12 FB - 5 CH - 0 SL
2nd: 7 FB - 3 CH - 0 SL
3rd: 9 FB - 4 CH - 1 SL
4th: 5 FB - 4 CH - 2 SL
5th: 6 FB - 3 CH - 0 SL
6th: 12 FB - 4 CH - 2 SL
7th: 4 FB - 5 CH - 0 SL
8th: 9 FB - 9 CH - 0 SL
9th: 4 FB - 3 CH - 1 SL

Solid ratios here, he's right around 2:1 or less in most innings. The triple play, as he noted, saved him 10 pitches or so, as he got through the 5th on 9 total pitches after the first two guys had reached.

Finally, I wanted to look at how he attacked certain hitters in the lineup in 4 different AB's. Here are a few that interested me the most. Again, since I can't post an image of the chart, I'll do my best to describe it. A brief legend

FB = Fastball
CH = Changeup
S/M = Swing and Miss
Center = Basically middle of strike zone

Ryan Freel (RHB)

1st AB: 1st Inning, Bases Empty, 0 Out

91FB -- Ball (Low)
90FB -- Strike (lower half)
79CH -- Ball (High)
90FB -- Strike (Lower half)
91FB -- Foul (Center)
92FB -- Foul (Center)
91FB -- Foul (High)
80CH -- Strikeout (Center, Low)

2nd AB: 3rd Inning, Runner on 2nd, 1 Out

79CH -- Ball (Low)
79CH -- Ball (Low)
90FB -- Foul Out (Ball, Inside)

3rd AB: 6th Inning, Empty, 1 Out

89FB -- Strike (Center)
91FB -- Ball (Low, Outside)
91FB -- 9U (High, Center)

4th AB: 8th Innings, Runner on 1st, 2 Out

80CH -- Strike (Center)
91FB -- Single (Inside, Strike)

Freel is a good contact hitter, striking out once every 12 or so PA's over the last three seasons, so I knew this would be an interesting matchup. In his first AB, he worked Hamels to the tune of 8 pitches, Cole throwing mostly fastballs, but getting him looking on a nice changeup on the final pitch. After starting him with 2 FB, in his second AB he started him two changeups, both missing low. The third pitch was a hard fastball in on his hands that almost hit him, but Freel swung and fouled out to first. In his 3rd AB, Cole went back to the hard stuff, throwing 3 straight fastballs. On the third pitch, Freel had to be looking change, as he was way late on a fastball and flied weakly to right field. In his final AB, Cole started him with a changeup, then went to the fastball, but Freel was waiting for it and lined it for a base hit. Striking out a good contact hitter isn't easy, but Hamels had him off balance, and tip your cap to Freel for looking for the changeup after being kept off balance for the better part of 3 AB's.

I was also real curious to see how he'd handle Adam Dunn. Dunn, as we all know, is a huge power/big strikeout guy, and he'd been striking out with alarming frequency early on this season.

1st AB: 1st inning, Bases Empty, 1 Out

91FB -- Ball (Inside)
91FB -- Strike (S/M, High Strike)
92FB -- Strike (S/M, High Strike)
93FB -- Foul (Center, mistake pitch)
81CH -- Strikeout (S/M, Low outside strike)

2nd AB: 3rd Inning, Runner on 2nd, 2 Outs

81CH -- Strike (Low inside)
91FB -- Foul (Low outside strike)
91FB -- Ball (Outside)
83CH -- Strikeout (S/M, Low outside ball)

3rd AB: 6th Inning, Bases Empty, 2 Outs

91FB -- Double (Center)

4th AB: 8th Inning, 1st and 3rd, 2 Outs

81CH -- Ball (Low)
80CH -- Strike (S/M, Low strike)
80CH -- Foul (Outside, Ball)
82CH -- Strikeout (S/M, Low ball)

It looks as if Dunn was pretty confused in 3 of his 4 AB. Hamels kept his eye level high in the first AB, then dropped one of his best changeups to strike him out, on a pitch that would have been a borderline called strike. In his 2nd AB, he started him with a change and slowed his bat, then got him to swing late on a fastball before dropping a change at virtually the same spot as the first AB and getting him to strike out again. In his 3rd AB, he looked like he didn't want to wait around, so he swung at the first pitch and lined it into the gap. Hamels threw the pitch pretty much down the middle, probably just trying to get ahead, as most hitters weren't being aggressive on the first pitch. In his last AB, Dunn saw all changeups, and it seemed like he kept thinking fastball, but never got it. His third K came on virtually the same pitch as the first two K's. Cole just had his number.

If there are any other areas or aspects to the start you're curious about, I should be able to figure it out from the data I have here. If you find this interesting, I could do it again in the future, whether it be for Hamels or anyone else.

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Comments

Re: Charting a masterpiece

Awesome work.

So, Cole is pretty good?

by phatj on Apr 29, 2007 3:16 PM EDT reply actions

Re: Charting a masterpiece

Real good stuff. I would be interested in seeing a Garcia game, to see just how many off-speed pitches that guy is going to throw.

by kdon on Apr 29, 2007 5:44 PM EDT reply actions

Re: Charting a masterpiece

By the way, it's really cool to see how pitchers mix their pitches to fool hitters. I don't really get a good sense for that while watching games.

FTN, if you get a chance, charting one of Hamels' weaker performances (his third start this year, perhaps?) would be really interesting, to see what he did differently.

by phatj on Apr 29, 2007 5:55 PM EDT reply actions

Re: Charting a masterpiece

I can do the Houston game, I think I have that one TIVO'd as well.

by FTN414 on Apr 29, 2007 6:20 PM EDT reply actions

Re: Charting a masterpiece

thanks to the mlb package: i've done this some for some of the other pitchers, mostly madson, eaton and lieber, so it's interesting to see for one i havent done. i have to quibble with you on two points, though:

(1) don't you think cole's changeup is basically a breaking ball, which he seems to use similar to how carlton used his bottom-out slider. its not as peonounced, but the action is basicaly the same idea, i think. it dives just as the batter is going for what he sees as a fastball. (2) hamels throws a curve, not a slider as his third pitch, doesn't he? i didn't think he had a slider at all.

by gr on Apr 29, 2007 10:21 PM EDT reply actions

Re: Charting a masterpiece

A changeup isn't a breaking ball in terms of the way the ball spins and breaks.
His breaking ball isn't a sharp slider, but it isn't really an over the top curveball either. You could just call it a slurve I suppose.

by FTN414 on Apr 29, 2007 10:26 PM EDT reply actions

Re: Charting a masterpiece

fair enough. what's the difference you're referring to in point (1) between a breaking ball and change-up?

by gr on Apr 30, 2007 12:24 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Charting a masterpiece

Well, I've never talked to Cole and I can't be 100% sure of his grip, but with a changeup, the common way to throw it is exactly like a fastball, except you "choke" the ball into the back of your hand, whereas with a fastball, you are gripping it with the ends of your fingers and the ball doesn't touch the palm of your hand. What makes Hamels change so good, and guys like Johan Santana, is that they throw with the exact same arm speed and motion, the only difference is how they grip the ball. So, in essence, the ball has the same spin and rotation as a fastball, but because it's held in the back of the hand, it's thrown with the same arm motion, and that's why hitters can't pick it up.

A curveball or a slider is normally gripped differently, with the index and middle fingers close together, and there is a snapping motion with the wrist. If you watch in super slow motion sometimes when they show the view from the catcher out to the pitcher, you can see the logo on the ball spinning, or the seams spinning in a certain direction, based on the pitch. Cole's changeup doesn't really have "curveball or slider break", in that its kind of 12-6, but it really just dies, whereas a curve or slider will have earlier break and most times move on both a horizontal and vertical plane.

by FTN414 on Apr 30, 2007 12:43 PM EDT reply actions

Re: Charting a masterpiece

i see what you're saying. i throw a fastball, changeup and a knuckleball in men's league, so all the fastball-to-changeup arm speed and delivery facctors are familiar. i guess what i don't understand is what a "breaking ball" actually is. is it a catch-all term for pitches that break or is it a none-of-the-above type pitch which is not a change-up, slider, curve, sinker, screwgie, or etc, but has some sort of spin, action or break which is all its own. its probably a case of semantics when you get down to it, but i thought i'd ask.

cole's changeup dies but also fades away slightly from right-handed hitters, i believe, which makes it the opposite, yet theoretically similar to carlton's slider, which died but ran in to right-handed hitters. that was all i was trying to say before, btw.

by gr on Apr 30, 2007 3:11 PM EDT reply actions

Re: Charting a masterpiece

Gotcha. "Breaking ball" is the general term for a slider or a curve, I guess. Normally if you ask a pitcher what he throws in the minors, then ask a scout, you'll often times hear different things. Velocity is the biggest thing that normally sets a curve apart from a slider, as well as the plane on which the ball breaks. Most guys who throw sliders throw them in the low-mid 80's with more lateral break, whereas a curveball is slower with more of a looping break.

Liriano throws a slider, whereas Zito throws a curve. Those are two distinct examples, but they still apply. Liriano's slider has a very tight break on it, and moves from a more 10-4 angle, when looking from the pitcher into the catcher, whereas Zito's curve breaks more 12-6 and is a lot slower/loopier.

I'd consider a slider/slurve/curve as a "breaking ball". A changeup is a changeup, unless you're talking a circle change, which is what Glavine throws, and Pedro from the right side. But Glavine's changeup has a much more pronounced fade on it than a guy like Hamels or even Santana. I assume Cole doesn't use the circle grip and just chokes it back in his hand. To me, a splitter and a forkball are virtually the same pitch, the difference is basically velocity. The screwball is a lost art, the only guy I can think of that throws one is Dallas Braden in Oakland, but he's been told not to throw it at the big league level, for whatever reason.

A sinker and a cutter are just variations of a fastball which involve altering the grip of the ball.

by FTN414 on Apr 30, 2007 3:20 PM EDT reply actions

Another lost art...

...although its more terminology, would be the famed Jeff Reardon "palmball" which was probably just some alternate name for a changeup. It's interesting to me how innovations in pitching come down as much to terminology as they do to actual pitches. the splitter came about when power pitchers starting throwing forkballs as hard as they could (nolan ryan, I believe, had one later on in his career). no one's used "forkball" for about a decade, probably.

the slider, as i understand it, is thrown with spin opposite that of a curve. but the plane is different, you're right. the slider is meant to start out looking like a fastball, while a curve, especially the 12-6, looks like a big spinning top. i think one thing that gets lost in looking at pitchers is the use of mixing pitches to change eye levels. it seems cole does this pretty well and it stands to reason that its one of the factors that helps a two-pitch pitcher get by. perhaps its something that guys like lieber and eaton, or a rookie catcher, don't have as good a handle on. i haven't gotten to a point examingin pitchers where i can intelligently make that guess yet.

watching the moyer game, whenever he threw something far out of the zone -- especially high -- i caught myself wondering if he really let a pitch get away from him or he was just doing it to get inside the batter's head.

by gr on Apr 30, 2007 4:49 PM EDT reply actions

Re: Charting a masterpiece

Hamels' breaking ball is a curve. It just doesn't have a very good hump to it. Frankly, I think Hamels' curveball is just for the occasional change-of-pace.

It's not a slurve either. Slurves are better classified as slow sliders. They really have very little to do with curveballs. The theory behind the slurve is that a batter doesn't get in front of a slider the way they will with most breaking balls and off-speed pitches. A slurve will move like slider (2-to-8 break) with a velocity 10 to 15 miles slower than a fastball. Therefore, a slurve couples the tight, horizontal break of a slider with the speed of an off-speed pitch. It doesn't really work that well in practice but some guys have used it effectively.

Anyway, back to Hamels. I think he could really use another pitch. Not necessarily a breaking ball but a splitter. He could use it basically in the same circumstances he uses the curve now (ahead in the count, not for strikes but to entice the hitter to swing and miss).

by keith424 on May 3, 2007 2:25 AM EDT reply actions

Re: Charting a masterpiece

I hear ya. His breaking ball is used so infrequently, it's tough to really figure out what to make of it. I've never actually seen his grip used to throw it, and it's not easy to pick up the spin of the ball from TV. I understand what you're saying regarding the ball breaking on a certain plane and how to classify the pitch. I guess I feel like his "breaking ball" has more lateral break than that of a regular curveball, especially the one he snapped off to strike out Brandon Phillips, which is why I just called it a slurve. A slurve generally is in the 77-81 range, which is where Hamels breaking ball is normally thrown.

Anyway, it's not important in the long run, because he only throw 5-8 a game, lol. As for him maybe needing a splitter, I disagree. His changeup has similar break to a split, diving down in the zone in the last 3rd of the way to the plate.

by FTN414 on May 3, 2007 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Charting a masterpiece

Here is the wiki on types of pitches.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_baseball_pitches

Good information. The one issues I have with some pitch definitions is that they don't take arm angle into context. The way you angle your arm will often effect the spin and the pitch can look and even behave differently. A guy who throws sidearm or almost underarm CAN get a rising fastball due to the angle of the release of the ball. These guys are effective because of their release points.

by jonk on May 3, 2007 7:21 AM EDT reply actions