Phils acquire SP Kyle Lohse from Reds

by dajafi on Jul 30, 2007 4:15 PM EDT in News Comment 21 comments

Update [2007-7-30 17:11:29 by dajafi]: Lohse to pitch in the bullpen? Radano says Gillick has left that up to Charlie. For a guy with mid/high-90s heat and two good pitches, but not a third, maybe this would be a slick move.

For AA lefty Matt Maloney. Evidently Lohse will take J.D. Durbin's spot in the rotation, with Durbin heading to the bullpen.

Reaction on BackSheGoes is "meh," and I'm inclined to agree. Lohse isn't obviously worse than Durbin, and I'm okay with the cost: as rotoworld observes, he was no better than our third-best lefty prospect, fourth if you count Joe Savery.

But Lohse also isn't obviously better than Durbin. In 21 starts this season, he's 6-12, with a 4.58 ERA. He gives you innings (131.2), which is important with our bullpen, and the K/BB ratio is pretty good at 80 strikeouts, 33 walks. With 16 home runs allowed, unfortunately, he'll fit right in with the Phils' rotation. Lohse will be a free agent after this season, so maybe he'll take the opportunity to shine in a pennant race and make himself a few million dollars.

It is a little bit irksome that the day the Braves apparently get Mark Texiera, our big addition is Kyle Lohse. Maybe there's another deal coming, though if so, I suspect it will be for a reliever.

[editor's note, by dajafi] Here's a really interesting look at Lohse's struggles with the curveball this season. There's reason to think that if he ditches the pitch, he might be a pretty interesting pickup.

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Re: Phils acquire SP Kyle Lohse from Reds

To quote that appended article:

"Lohse has an eye-opening WHIFF rate for one particular pitch, and it's for all the wrong reasons. Lohse's curveball is currently drawing a whiff rate of .031. That is to say, he's coaxed just one (1) swing-and-miss out of the 38 swings hitters have taken against this pitch...a big breaking ball. This is not a good pitch. The opposition is hitting .500 against it, and slugging .607. Fortunately, this is his least used pitch, but it might not be a terrible idea to ditch it completely."

by David S. Cohen on Jul 30, 2007 4:34 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: Phils acquire SP Kyle Lohse from Reds

I posted this over on Beerleaguer, but I'll repost it here. Lohse got rocked in his starts against the AL - 10.42 ERA in four losses. take those out, and his season looks like this:

112.7 IP
6-6
3.59 ERA
1.23 WHIP
69 K; 5.52 K/9
24 BB; 1.92 BB/9
2.88 K/BB
11 HR; 0.88 HR/9

plus, he has been a terror at the hitter-friendly Great American this year: 63 IP, 2.57 ERA, 1.11 WHIP. I'll take his numbers.

by perfectdepth on Jul 30, 2007 4:37 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: Phils acquire SP Kyle Lohse from Reds

Thanks pd. Those are some interesting stats, especially the non-AL stats.

by David S. Cohen on Jul 30, 2007 4:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Phils acquire SP Kyle Lohse from Reds

I don't like it.

Maloney isn't a top prospect, but it's always seemed to me that he's been consistently underrated throughout his career. Regardless of the physical abilities he may or may not lack, the fact is that he strikes people out. I wasn't averse to trading him, but not for someone who, like you said, isn't any better than the guy he's going to replace.

by taco pal on Jul 30, 2007 4:42 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

So long, Kyle

From the perspective of an occasional lurker and displaced Reds fan in Philadelphia, I think you're selling Lohse a bit short. Lohse was known as a head case with a live arm in MN and benefitted from the change of scenery and league. In one calendar year since Cincinnati acquired him, Lohse has kept the ball in the park (in a bandbox like CBP), kept his BBs down, and struck out a respectable number of batters. And as you point out, he's been durable. Additionally, you aren't assuming an obligation beyond this year and you'll get a draft pick if he signs somewhere else this winter.

You also have to consider what else was available on the market; the answer being "not much." This was posted over at Red Reporter a few days ago:

IP HR SO BB WHIP ERA+ PRC DERA
Morris 129.7 11 65 39 1.45 103 40 4.78
Livan 133.3 21 67 57 1.59 99 46 4.22
Contreras 118.7 12 68 45 1.61 73 29 4.68
Jennings 76.0 8 56 26 1.42 91 26 4.67
Lohse 131.7 16 80 33 1.33 100 42 4.48

Lohse is the one I'd want out from this list. Considering that Gillick only gave up his fourth-best LHP prospect, I'd say this is a good move.

by ken on Jul 30, 2007 4:46 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: So long, Kyle

From the perspective of an occasional lurker and displaced Reds fan in Philadelphia

[...]

Lohse is the one I'd want out from this list. Considering that Gillick only gave up his fourth-best LHP prospect, I'd say this is a good move.

What you fail to apprehend is that now that the Phillies have traded him, Maloney will turn into Tom Glavine and go on to win 300 games for the Reds. That is the nature of being a Phillies fan.

Remember the Phitans

by RememberthePhitans on Jul 30, 2007 4:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: So long, Kyle

Wouldn't that be nice. But you fail to apprehend that nobody goes to Cincinnati and wins 100 games, let alone 300 (though come to think of it, Jim Maloney won 134 games in the '60s).

by ken on Jul 30, 2007 5:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: So long, Kyle

Thanks for the insights. That Lohse pitched well at GAB is encouraging; at the least, it seems unlikely that CBP will freak him out, as it seems to do for some of our guys.

I certainly agree that, given the contracts Contreras and to a lesser extent Morris are lugging around, and the higher perceived value of Livan Hernandez, this was the deal to make.

I have no idea what's up with Jason Jennings. I wouldn't be shocked if he becomes a Phillie this winter, but he just can't be this bad unless he's hurt... right?

by dajafi on Jul 30, 2007 5:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Teixeira

Braves probably made the right decision, but boy did they pay one hell of a price. The #1, #2, and #3 prospects in their organization? Ouch.

by taco pal on Jul 30, 2007 5:06 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: Teixeira

Agree. Daniels might have saved his reputation, at least a little, with that deal. He'd made some incredible stinker trades previously.

by dajafi on Jul 30, 2007 5:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Teixeira

It was a steep price (here is Baseball America's analysis), but I understand the Braves' rationale. With Chipper, Smoltz, and Wickman getting up in years and Adruw Jones leaving for free agency, this is not a bad time to make a run at the playoffs. They also have the luxury of a young, talented, cheap catcher in McCann, so they could afford to loose Saltalamacchia.

by Celebre Twins on Jul 30, 2007 6:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Phils acquire SP Kyle Lohse from Reds

The Phillies picked up Lidle a couple of years ago and Moyers last year and got some good pitching. Is it possible Lohse can do the same? Well, he's not great and he's a fly ball pitcher which I don't like in CBP. But he was already pitching in a bandbox and he did OK.

This is probably a pretty good trade. I don't see Maloney being a real good big league pitcher. Lohse has been a fairly successful big league pitcher and there aren't many of them around. He has thrown a pretty fair percentage of Quality Starts over the years (although his nonn quality starts have been rally bad). That's a pretty good thing from a 4th/5th starter.

I like him better than Morris, Towers or Contreras -- the other guys who seemed to be available. (I wonder if Maloney was the guy the Phils offered for Towers).

by smitty on Jul 30, 2007 5:33 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: Phils acquire SP Kyle Lohse from Reds

I've touched on it before. Maloney is a fringe 5th starter. Lohse may bomb out, but the splits posted above show that he's actually been pretty damn good against the NL this season. He has quality stuff, maybe a new team will make him realize it even more. We have no idea what else Maloney could have gotten us. He has average velocity, average/below average control, and average/below average secondary pitches. I can post tons of examples of guys posting good K numbers in A/AA and then getting torched in the majors. I'm one to go with numbers over scouting reports, but at some point, you have to consider both. In the case of Maloney, I think the scouting reports have to take some weight here.

We didn't give up a team changing prospect for Lohse. If he really turns it on and pitches well, we can re-sign him or look for a draft pick. This is a good move.

by FTN414 on Jul 30, 2007 5:35 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Draft picks

I made the draft pick point in my earlier post but I think that's wrong. Two draft picks are awarded for Type A free agents (top 20%) and one for Type B (20-40%). The classifications are determined by an Elias formula and are based on the previous two years of performance. The Elias formula isn't public, but it goes by fairly traditional metrics like ERA and W-L from what I've heard. All of this is bad for the Phillies because Lohse has gotten poor run support this year, has an ERA inflated by his home park, and had an atrocious first half of '06 with the Twins.

As for resigning Lohse, keep in mind that he's a Boras client.

by ken on Jul 30, 2007 6:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Why is he displacing Durbin and not Eaton?

Please, if we must have Eaton on the roster put him in the bullpen and then don't use him.

Baseball people can't grasp the concept of sunk cost for some reason

by lseltzer on Jul 31, 2007 8:32 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Good question

Especially after yet another crap outing from Eaton tonight.

Bleeding Green Nation Philadelphia Eagles Blog

by JasonB on Jul 31, 2007 10:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Good question

You can't tell me that for probably the league minimum JD Durbin couldn't keep an ERA around 6 as this team's 5th starter?

How many pitchers currently on the team or in the system could do at least what Eaton has done so far this year?

Bleeding Green Nation Philadelphia Eagles Blog

by JasonB on Aug 1, 2007 12:08 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Phils acquire SP Kyle Lohse from Reds

Eaton might be the most infuriating pitcher I've ever seen. His stuff has wicked movement, his velocity is more than adequate. But he pitches like a freakin' moron, and he's always good for two meltdown innings per start.

This offseason, I'd like to see him go on a fanatical training regimen and spend two weeks straight with a shrink. Maybe those two things would help.

For now, we're probably stuck with him, though I kind of agree that Durbin would be a preferable option as the fifth starter.

by dajafi on Aug 1, 2007 12:40 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: Phils acquire SP Kyle Lohse from Reds

Do you think there might be a catcher than could get him under control? Sometimes a really savvy catcher can cure these kind of problems... I'm just guessing.

Bleeding Green Nation Philadelphia Eagles Blog

by JasonB on Aug 1, 2007 3:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs