FanPost

Dethrone King Cole or King Felix?

[Also posted at HTM]

King Felix is going to have to wait in line, it just ain't his turn.  King Cole Hamels has had his say, and he says that Felix Hernandez just isn't worthy of the `King' moniker...Cole's gonna take it for himself.

 The numbers won't lie baby:

Felix:


    * 4-4,  4.11 ERA  1.45 WHIP  .295 opponent avg
    * 76.2 IP,  78 Ks, 22 BB, 8 homers
    * 9.16 K per 9,  3.55 K:BB ratio, 2.55 GB/FB ratio

Cole:

    * 10-4, 3.72 ERA  1.21 WHIP  .254 opponent avg
    * 118.2 IP, 124 Ks, 29 BB, 20 homers
    * 9.40 K per 9,  4.28 K:BB ratio, 0.95 GB/FB ratio

OK, so Cole is better in every stat possible except for homers given up and ground ball/fly ball ratio, and those obviously correlate to one another.  Cole's been slightly better in every other category.  But then you look at their BABIPs and the image gets cloudier.  Basically, this stat considers the  batting average on balls put into play, and the theory behind it holds that balls hit into play (excluding homers) are largely out of the pitcher's hands; it's luck.  This doesn't differentiate between screaming line drives and lazy pop flies, but it's still proven to be a fairly decent stat.  The higher it is, the less lucky the pitcher's been, and the average is about .290.

    * Cole: .304
    * Felix: .375

Uh oh.  This isn't looking good for Cole.  Felix has been extremely unlucky, and no doubt this partly has to do with where he pitches half his games (Safeco is HUGE according to Wheels).  Balls fall in front of outfielders far more often there than in Citizen's Bank Park, but that's the tradeoff one makes for less homers.  In any event, Felix's numbers are likely to improve as the season goes along, provided he pitches in a similar way to how he has thus far.  Cole's been much closer to the average for balls in play, and so his output is likely to be far more in line with what he's already done.

So who to dethrone?  Well, neither.  Felix missed a couple start, is still younger by 2 years, and has been fairly unlucky with balls in play.   Cole and Felix are both Kings awaiting their thrones.

But hell, Cole has a cool website.  He wins!