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The Top 10 In OPS Since The Break

also posted at HTM
On-base + slugging percentage is a quick and dirty way to judge a player's offensive output. It doesn't rely on teammates getting on base ahead of a player, it stresses the importance of a walk, and it's becoming more and more popular with every season that goes by. Sure, it has its problems, such as weighing OBP and SLG equally, and ignoring other aspects of offense, but it's still a reasonable way to quickly judge players.

Now, after that dry introduction, let's take a look at the top 10 in the Majors since the All-Star break (July 13th on):

  1. Pat Burrell 1.198
  2. Miguel Cabrera 1.189
  3. Jorge Posada 1.188
  4. Robinson Cano 1.73
  5. Jermaine Dye 1.135
  6. Ryan Howard 1.114
  7. Hanley Ramirez 1.108
  8. Milton Bradley 1.104
  9. Albert Pujols 1.071
  10. Ryan Braun 1.062
It's certainly an interesting list. Pat Burrell tops the list, besting Miguel Cabrera because of Burrell's .517 OBP. That's Bonds territory there. The Bat's resurgence in past month and a half has helped to keep the Phillies offense running smoothly, even though they lost Chase Utley to a broken hand. His hitting simply cannot be denied.

There's a second Phillie on this list, one Ryan Howard. Recently he's started to come under fire by some Phils fans for not playing up to the level of what they believe he should be reaching...well these numbers kind of throw that out of the window eh? 10 homers in June, 10 homers in July, and 4 so far in August say his power is still there. He still has a good eye at the plate (77 walks, 395 OBP), and he's still a force up there. So why are there rumblings about his hitting? Strikeouts and batting average, the last two vestiges of horrible statistical analysis. People who look at ballplayers through batting average, homers, RBIs and strikeouts see Ryan Howard as excelling in two categories and struggling in two others. They don't look at VORP, EQA, or WARP, let alone even freaking OBP or OPS. So Ryan Howard is 'striking out too much' and `not hitting enough'. Well, only in the very biased eyes of the uninformed.

The rest of the list is an interesting mix of youngsters (Robinson Cano, Ryan Braun, Hanley Ramirez) and veterans (Jorge Posada, Jermaine Dye, Milton Bradley). Cano had a horrendous start to the 2007 campaign, with a 741 OPS pre-allstar. Braun has been the best hitting rookie BY FAR, and is the far and away leader for Rookie of the Year. And Hanley Ramirez? He's the best SS in the Major Leagues this season, and it's not freaking close. But he's not as exciting as Reyes! because he plays for the Marlins.

As for the veterans, Posada's terrific year has helped to keep the Yankees afloat, and with so many hitters clicking at once in that lineup, the Yankees are winning ballgame after ballgame by bludgeoning their opponents with bats. And if Phillies fans thought that Pat Burrell had a frustrating first-half to the 2007 season, take a look at Jermaine Dye's year. He saw his OPS dip to 673 on July 6th. The man couldn't hit and wasn't being all that patient up there. It looked like his career was over. Then he just flipped a switch and started scolding the ball. His horrible BABIP (which measures that average that balls fall into play for a batter) turned around. He has as many homers (12) in 107 AB as he did all of the first half (266 AB). After a terrific 2006, and a horrible half a season, it looks like he's back in the saddle and could have gotten himself a few extra dollars next season.

Milton Bradley also appears on the list and, even though he's seen his fair share of the pine due to various nagging injuries, he's been an integral cog in that San Diego Padres offense.  The Oakland As let him go for `chemistry' reasons, but he seems to be having no problem fitting in with the Padres organization.  His patience at the plate and his ability to hit the ball has been unmatched by most everyone in baseball, as evidenced by his place in the top 10.  It's only been 22 games with the Padres, but it's starting to look like a great fit.

Finally, I'd just like to mention that Miguel Cabrera is a sick, sick hitter. He flat out smokes the ball to all fields and hardly ever gets fooled...so what do people talk about? Him gaining some weight over the past two seasons. The weight might be a detriment on defense, but it's not affecting the MAIN reason that he's such a great ballplayer, so why make a big deal out of it? Cabrera knows he should probably lose a few lbs, and I'm sure that he'll come to spring training 2008 in good shape. Why is this worthy of a feature?

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Re: The Top 10 In OPS Since The Break
Dye would be a pretty interesting right-field option for the Phils next season, if they wanted to shift Victorino to CF and deal Bourn (or vice-versa, I guess). Righty slugger who draws some walks and seems like he would fit in well with the team.

Howard is clearly having a strong year, even if he's a little off his ridiculous 2006 pace. He does have at-bats where he looks helpless--lefties can kill him with low and away breaking stuff, which he often just can't lay off--and he was never really a .313 hitter (check out the BABIP from last season). Know what? I'll still take him.

by dajafi on Aug 14, 2007 12:19 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: The Top 10 In OPS Since The Break
Signing Dye is an excellent suggestion. The White Sox exercised a club option this year and are only paying him $6.75 million. He will be 34 next year and will probably command no more than about 3 years/$24 millon (otherwise known as Eaton money). A move out of the tough AL Central should allow him to put up better numbers and somewhat mitigate age related decline. An outfield of Burrell, Victorino, and Dye, with Bourne and Werth as backups has a nice combination of power, speed, and defensive ability.

by Celebre Twins on Aug 14, 2007 4:15 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: The Top 10 In OPS Since The Break
I don't know; I wouldn't feel real confident in Dye. a contract that covers the mid to late 30s of a guy who's never had much patience at the plate and has - for the most part - been a workmanlike but not spectacular player doesn't seem real smart to me. I could see a Dye contract becoming very albatrossy by the third or fourth year...maybe I'm just a pessimist.

by perfectdepth on Aug 14, 2007 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: The Top 10 In OPS Since The Break
No, you've got grounds. Though I think my countervailing irrational optimism--having to do with the fact that every Phillie acquisition seems to improve his patience and strike-zone discernment under Manuel and Thompson--is also a defensible view. Assuming of course that Charlie is left in place.

by dajafi on Aug 14, 2007 4:57 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: The Top 10 In OPS Since The Break
aren't sox fans heaping hatred on him for his defense, or am i confusing him with someone else?

by gr on Aug 15, 2007 11:20 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: The Top 10 In OPS Since The Break
Baseball Prospectus has him as a pretty damn good defensive player - already 18 FRAR this year, 22 last year.

by perfectdepth on Aug 15, 2007 5:07 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: The Top 10 In OPS Since The Break
I severely underestimated the market price for a player like Dye. The White Sox resigned him for 2 years at $22 million, with a $12 million mutual option in the 3rd year. The details are here. Considering this deal plus the Burns deal must make Rowand giddy.

by Celebre Twins on Aug 18, 2007 5:27 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: The Top 10 In OPS Since The Break
I'm sorry, but "the best SS in the Major Leagues this season" wears #11 and red pinstripes, doesn't he?

And it's games like tonight (16 hits vs the Pirates despite an 0-4, 2Ks from Howard) that provide plenty of ammo for those "rumblings". Howard can be superhuman when he's on, and carry the team like nobody else, but having the 6th-best OPS in the league since the ASB is no guarantee that he'll add to it every night...

by das411 on Aug 18, 2007 2:09 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

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