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Patty the batty

July has come and gone and we just got word that the player of the month is...wait for it, wait for it...

Ryan Braun.

Oh well, who the frig cares about that anyway.  We are trying to win a championship.  I am certainly going to bathe in his recent success since I have pretty much backed him from day one, and if he goes in the toilet at least I'll have this.  

Pat Burrell has decided to come out of his semi-comatose June swoon and put up Safeco huge numbers in July.  This is a fairly unprecedented turn of events because Pat hasn't had many months as poor as his June was and he hasn't had many months as good as his July.

Star-divide

Pat's Lows and Highs in OPS by month since 2002...

2002:
Low: June- .811
High: May- 1.125

2003:
Low: June- .606
High: August- .854

2004:
Low: June- .717
High: May- 1.122

2005:
Low: July- .855
High: April- .955

2006:
Low: June- .826
High: April- 1.013

2007:
Low: June-.551
High: July- 1.332

One thing not told on here is that Pat has been remarkably consistent the last 3 years.  He has had 1 month with an OPS below .770 and that was June of this year and May of this year was his only OPS below .826.  For a marked man, those are some pretty good numbers.

The two things we can see are a) this is not just the biggest seasonal difference, but back to back montly difference.  His OPS in July was more than DOUBLE that of his in June.  Ridiculous.  The other thing is apparently Pat's dog died in June when he was 11 because he just HATES that month.  Even in 2005 his June OPS was just right behind July.  If we ever are going to bench him, June is the right time of month.

Pat ended June with an 0-4 against the Mets (he didn't play in the last game) dropping his numbers to .203 .367 .368 .735.  That is close to his 2003 line where he was just awful for most of the year.  Pat got to play on July 1st because Charlie keeps better monthly charts than we do and knew Pat was about to explode.  He got 2 walks and no hits in 2 ABs and his OPS stood at a season low of .201 .369 .364 .733.  

Pat then turned it on by which we rarely see around here (at least by non-Howard players.   Pat got a hit in 20 of the Phillies 25 games in July.  In the 5 games in which he did not register a hit, 0-2 with 2 walks, 0-1 as a pinch hitter, 0-0 as he did not play, 0-2 with 2 walks and 0-2 with 2 walks.  He reached base in every game he started.  Those are some pretty good numbers.  His final line for July looks like this...

.435 .564 .768 1.332 17 R 30 H 5 2B 6 HR 22 RBI 21 BB 15 K

He raised his line from
.203 .367 .368 .735
.260 .418 .466 .884

That is 57 points in average, 51 points in OBP, 98 points in SLG and 149 points in OPS.  And he has continued into August as he finished up July.  His line now stands at .268 .426 .484 .911 which ties him  for 4th among MLB left fielders.  More amazingly he ranks t23rd in MLB overall in OPS with Aaron Rowand.  

Here is something else to chew on, especially for the Burrell haters out there.  The Phils have 4 players in the top 23 in OPS (Utley, Howard, Rowand and Burrell).  Florida has 2 (Cabrera and Ramirez).  The Yankees have 2 (ARod and Posada).  Detroit has 3 (Ordonez, Granderson and Sheffield).  St. Louis has 2 (Pujols and Duncan).  Atlanta has 2 (Chipper and newly acquired Teixeira).  Of the 23 teams, 15 are on 6 teams.  That leaves 9 other teams fielding a player who is having a better year than Burrell (if the math doesn't add up it is because Burrell and Rowand share 23rd AND 24th places).

So, 6 + 9 = 15 teams
30 teams - 15 teams = 15 teams

15 teams, or, half of the league, do NOT have a player on their roster having as GOOD as a season as Pat Burrell.  I just want to let that sink in for a moment.

.

.

.

Yeap, you read it right.  We can nit pick a bit on the numbers, but you get my point.  Yeah, THAT Pat Burrell.  He'd be leading FIFTEEN teams in offense at this point of the year.  He'd be their BIG gun, their GOTO man, their HOT STUD.  The concept is mind boggling based on how he was at the end of June.  

The guy has gotten his share of venom from the fans, but he is putting up another good year after two previous good years and all we want to do is trade him.  I am nto sure how long this will last, but kudos to Pat right now as he could have just given up on the season completely and went into a hole, but instead did a complete turn around and put up his best month ever.

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Re: Patty the batty
I mentioned pretty much the same point here a few days ago.

I had looked at some of the MLB OPS numbers at that time, and when I looked at it, in the OPS category, Pat's slugging was among the lowest in the top 25. Right now, of the top 25 OPS players, Pat has the lowest slugging percentage. I think that may change a bit with the continued hitting (his walks haven't been an issue, even when he wasn't hitting).

The thing then is that PB is obviously, obviously the perfect lead-off hitter. ;)

He gets on base at an outrageous rate and doesn't slug as much as the mashers leading the league in OPS. FWIW, he is fifth in the league in on-base percentage behind: Bonds, Chipper, Ortiz, and Thome. The first real so-called lead-off type guys on the On-base list are Brian Roberts and Ichiro at .402. Pat's at .426.

Remember the Phitans

by RememberthePhitans on Aug 3, 2007 9:53 AM EDT reply actions  

Re: Patty the batty
I know you were speaking tongue in cheek, but to back up that jokingness about Pat as leadoff hitter, I remember a Baseball Prospectus study on baserunning a couple of years ago that had Pat (along with Thome) as the worst baserunner in baseball.  What a shame given his OBP.

by David S. Cohen on Aug 3, 2007 10:39 AM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Patty the batty
I knew he'd regress (progress) to the mean, but this is ridiculous.  Lovin' it.

by meatball on Aug 3, 2007 10:01 AM EDT reply actions  

Re: Patty the batty
Much as I'm enjoying the triumphal Burrell discussion here and elsewhere, I think I'm loving the deafening silence from all the media dimwits who called for his outright release less than a month ago even more.

by dajafi on Aug 3, 2007 10:24 AM EDT reply actions  

Re: Patty the batty
The new chorus is "we have to get rid of him now while his value is high." The anti-Burrell crowd doesn't really have any reason for hating Burrell. They just hate him on purely irrational/aesthetic grounds, and they'll make up the facts to justify their stance as they go along. If he's doing poorly, it's time to get rid of him. If he's doing well, it's time to get rid of him. They're no different than the idiot anti-Abreu crowd from years past.

I understand Mike Schmidt had a haters club too back in the day. These guys are in good company.

by taco pal on Aug 3, 2007 11:13 AM EDT reply actions  

Re: Patty the batty
The Burrell thing almost has to be "poisonous envy of a guy who can get laid at will," doesn't it?

Sort of like the hate for Bill Clinton in the '90s...

by dajafi on Aug 3, 2007 12:06 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Patty the batty
The Burrell thing almost has to be "poisonous envy of a guy who can get laid at will," doesn't it?

I was thinking that, too. My mental picture of a typical Burrell hater kind of like I think of the guy who used to be on the ESPN commercials ("I'm "The Rick"). People just don't get the value of a walk. For some reason, they think he should swing and miss at bad pitches more often, as though that would make him a better player. It would just turn him into Rob Deer.

The 93 Phillies, as beloved as they were, were masters of the walk and nobody hated them for walking instead of swinging. Daulton, Kruk, and Dykstra each were over 100 walks that year. Hollins was close with 85.

Remember the Phitans

by RememberthePhitans on Aug 3, 2007 2:10 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Patty the batty
What I guess they don't get is that walks are, as much as anything else, byproducts of not swinging at crap. I don't know if anyone out there tracks the frequency of guys swinging at strikes and non-strikes. My guess is that Burrell very, very rarely swings at non-strikes. This was true of many of those '93 Phillies, it was true of Abreu for a long time, etc. With Ryan Howard it seems to go in and out; when it's in, you get absurd stretches like his first two weeks or so after the break.

Even a modest improvement in not swinging at bad pitches can lead to all kinds of good things. I'm convinced that's the difference between Aaron Rowand 2005-2006, and this year's model.

by dajafi on Aug 3, 2007 2:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Patty the batty
I don't know anywhere you can get data that detailed, but according to baseball-reference, Burrell swings at 36% of pitches, compared to a league average of 45% of pitches. additionally, he makes contact on 80% of his swings, which is exactly the league average. that does suggest someone who doesn't swing at bad pitches. it bears out when you compare him to Abreu: his career numbers are 36% and 80%, respectively.

Rowand has become more selective over his career: in 2004, he swung at 54% of the pitches he saw. in 2005, 52%; in 2006, 50%; and in 2007, 48%. (he also makes contact 80% of the time.)

it is just coincidental that all three of those guys have 80% contact rates. compare them to Howard, who has what must be an incredibly low contact rate: 66% on his career, 64% this year. not sure what the implications are of that without looking at a whole lot more data, and b-r doesn't make it very easy to search their pitch data so it's kind of guesswork.

by perfectdepth on Aug 3, 2007 4:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Patty the batty
Burrell gets criticized for taking a lot of third strikes rather than swinging defensively at anything close with two strikes. I don't know where to find stats that measure this, but to the naked eye it does seem to be true that he gets called out a lot.

But the criticism is stupid, because Burrell's approach is probably a good thing. The goal of hitting isn't to avoid strikeouts at any cost, but to maximize the amount of your overall production. You can't just go up there and say: "I'm going to take every borderline ball and spoil every borderline strike" because nobody short of Barry Bonds has perfect ball/strike recognition. You have to go up there with a consistent policy: either "I'm going to try to spoil every borderline strike knowing that I'll accidentally hit weak groundouts on X% of them" or "I'm going to try to take every borderline ball, knowing that I'll be called out on strikes on X% of them." I don't see any reason why the second approach wouldn't be much better than the first. Borderline pitches are very difficult to drive. Striking out on a borderline pitch isn't much worse than not striking out - you'll probably make an out either way. If you sacrifice an increase in strikeouts in exchange for an increase in walks, you'll probably come out way ahead - which is exactly how it's worked for Burrell.

Burrell, by taking a lot of called third strikes, is probably doing exactly the right thing.

by taco pal on Aug 3, 2007 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Patty the batty
I agree, with a caveat: I don't think it's necessarily the right thing for every hitter. my personal theory on Burrell (and I don't claim to be any kind of expert on hitting mechanics) is that he's come to accept that he's not a naturally gifted pure hitter like Vlad Guerrero. he can't, like you say, go out and swing at borderline strikes because he won't be able to drive them like Guerrero can.

but, of course, he can still hit some pitches, and he has a pretty good grasp of the strike zone. so he's made the decision you describe about borderline pitches. the negative view of that is the much-repeated "40 good swings" description, but a player who only gets 40 good swings can still be a very productive hitter with the right approach.

now that approach may make him more likely to have a serious slump. when his hits don't fall, like earlier in the season when his BABIP was around .250, his average & slugging are going to drop very fast because he'll consistently have relatively fewer ABs than a guy who takes less walks. but then, hitters who take the alternative approach can slump just as much - Rollins' struggles last year are certainly proof of that.

by perfectdepth on Aug 3, 2007 4:52 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Patty the batty
In the first half, Burrell chased only 15% of the pitches that he was thrown to him outside of the strike zone.  That placed him 17th among the 250 mlb were who faced at least 300 such pitches.  Barry Bonds was first, chasing only 9%.  Johnny Estrada was last, chasing 45%.  The Phillies ranked this way:

Burrell 15% (17 of the 250)
Ruiz 17% (41)
Howard 23% (146)
Helms 23% (150)
Rollins 23% (151)
Victorino 23% (159)
Rowand 23% (160)
Utley 23% (161)
Dobbs 31%

Yes, this is an unusual bunch of results for a team, only 10% of all mlb players are at 23%.  Overall, the Phillies aren't the most patient bunch but they don't have any everyday players who are particularly impatient.

The numbers hide a lot of differences between the players above.  Victorino, for example, chases a lot of off-speed stuff, but rarely chases fastballs.  Utley, on the other hand, chases a lot more fastballs than most other major leaguers.

by gspira on Aug 3, 2007 9:13 PM EDT up reply actions  

Ruiz?
Really?

I never would have guessed he was that selective.

by phatj on Aug 3, 2007 10:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

I doubt that
Not that I want to get into a "who is the best looking Phillie" discussion... but there are several other young good looking kids on this team that are making tons of money and I'm sure have no problems getting laid that the fans absolutely love... So I doubt their hatred of Burrell has anything to do with jealousy.
Bleeding Green Nation Philadelphia Eagles Blog

by JasonB on Aug 4, 2007 12:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Patty the batty
Some good analysis here.  What amazes me is that I am not a real big Burrell fan.  He frustrates me as much as anyone.  I just am a fan of the truth and the truth is right there.  It may not be pretty, but you get no points for looking good (see Bobby Abreu).

Pat's play the last 3 years have pretty much justified his contract.

by jonk on Aug 3, 2007 6:52 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Patty the batty
"Pat's play the last 3 weeks have pretty much justified his contract."

It really is great to see Pat turn it on like this, and what better time to do it? It certainly would have been interesting to see how the lineup responded if he had been moved to the 3-hole instead of Rollins...

by das411 on Aug 4, 2007 2:21 AM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Patty the batty
You'll get your chance to see him in the 3 spot today!

by meatball on Aug 5, 2007 1:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

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