Rowand's career year?
by jonk on Sep 15, 2007 8:35 AM EDT
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PrintPerfect time to have a creer year. 30 years old, hard working, tough as nails CF putting up the best numbers in the league at his position in the last year of his contract. It doesn't get much better for Team Rowand as they look to cash in on his hard playing style and big bat.
Well, at least it looked that way for a while, but now his career year has fallen off a bit and not looking as good as it once did.
I have been tough on Rowand, but, his fortunes and the Phillies fortunes are linked very closely, and I want him to finish out the year very strongly. I am jusy not so sure he has it in him.
Rowands month by month breakdown:
April: .378 .462 .622 1.084
May: .274 .331 .396 .727
June: .297 .388 .446 .833
July: .352 .381 .659 1.041
August: .264 .350 .491 .841
September: .321 .333 .472 .805
Total: .311 .376 .512 .888
What had been a great year has turned into a very good year. However, looking at the last two months, his good year has been bouyed recently by mostly singles as his homeruns and walks have tailed off.
He has had just 1 walk and 1 homerun in September (13 games). He has had just 2 homeruns since August 22nd. Rowand also struckout 35 times in August and 9 so far in September. 35 times was almost more than double any other month.
Rowand has had his second best year so far (2004 was a bit better). He also has enjoyed playing in CBP where he hits like a superstar .326 .390 .574 .964 16 HR versus on the road, where he plays more like you would expect Aaron Rowand to play, .294 .361 .450 .811 7 HR. Let's hope he can pick it up over the last 15 games, because, we need him to hit well, and NOTHING will help his payday more than putting up good numbers in the playoffs.
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Re: Rowand's career year?
Re: Rowand's career year?
April: 10.3%
May: 6.7%
June: 7.8%
July: 3.1%
August: 8.3%
He only has 54 PA in September, and only 1 BB, that's a concern, but he's coming off his second best BB rate month of the year in August.
- 4.0%
- 5.0%
- 5.6%
HR%, in terms of # of hits
April: 14.7%
May: 6.9%
June: 13.3%
July: 12.5%
August: 25%
Sept: 5.9%
Again, small sample size in September. His overall extra base hit %, by month
April: 35.3%
May: 31.0%
June: 23.3%
July: 62.5%
Aug: 35.7%
Sep: 35.3%
35% of his hits were XBH in August and September. I don't see that as him trailing off.
by FTN414 on Sep 15, 2007 4:42 PM EDT reply actions
Re: Rowand's career year?
He hit 2 homeruns after August 17th. Include the 1 in September (prior to today's big one) and that makes 3. In 26 games.
I know you used months here to try to show something, but I fail to see it. Going back to August 8th, his OPS was at it's high point in a while at .919. It was, at the time of this writing, .888. If there is no tailoff, why is his OPS 31 poins lower?
You obviously defend all things Aaron Rowand, so, I had a feeling you'd try to make it seem like his is playing better or something, but he has been tailing off for a bit. Big homerun and 3 hits today and he gets full credit. Hopefully he can get some team to give him 4 years 50 million or something like that. It can only help us this year if he goes on a tear.
Re: Rowand's career year?
by FTN414 on Sep 15, 2007 5:18 PM EDT reply actions
Re: Rowand's career year?
Re: Rowand's career year?
"However, looking at the last two months, his good year has been bouyed recently by mostly singles as his homeruns and walks have tailed off."
His extra base hit percentage has remained constant in August and September. Before today's game, Rowand had 17 hits in September, and of those 17, he had 5 doubles and 1 HR. Again, that percentage is in line with his season numbers. His monstrous July was an outlier, but he's been more than solid in the extra base department in August and September, and his September % will increase after today's performance.
I said, his 1 walk in September is a concern. But, I don't see the intrinsic value of looking at data in 2 or 3 week chunks. Players get hot and cold, and that tends to even out. If Rowand only draws 1 walk in all of September, yeah, that will be a problem. But his extra base hits aren't trailing off in September. Evaluating him based on HR hit is kind of silly, since he's never been a HR hitter. He's still piling up the doubles even without the HR.
I'd be more concerned that Howard only has 2 HR and 4 XBH total in September.
by FTN414 on Sep 15, 2007 5:38 PM EDT reply actions
Re: Rowand's career year?
And don't give me that he has "never" been much of a HR hitter. He had never been much of a hitter at all until this year. I was basing it on his play this year. His HRs HAVE tailed off. You are basically agreeing but saying it doesn't matter. That is fine, but then let's judge him as a 15 HR per year hitter then.
Re: Rowand's career year?
by Homer on Sep 16, 2007 1:23 AM EDT up reply actions
Re: Rowand's career year?
Rowand's monthly numbers in these stats are:
MONTH XBH/AB% 1B/OIP K/PA% BB/PA%
April 13.33 0.500 15.24 10.48
May 6.60 0.328 13.79 6.90
June 6.93 0.434 15.52 7.76
July 21.98 0.255 12.50 3.12
August 9.43 0.419 29.17 8.33
September 13.79 0.429 16.95 1.69
OVERALL 11.59 0.388 17.48 6.86
It seems to me like his plate discipline is declining a little, but he hasn't completely fallen off or anything. I think we're talking about a .290/.350/.470 kind of hitter for the next couple of years if we sign him. That's certainly a valuable CF.
I definitely feel confident in signing him if we can get a solid starter or star reliever for Victorino or Bourn.
Re: Rowand's career year?
by FTN414 on Sep 15, 2007 8:34 PM EDT reply actions
Re: Rowand's career year?
by FTN414 on Sep 17, 2007 11:12 PM EDT reply actions
Re: Rowand's career year?
"He has had just 1 walk and 1 homerun in September (13 games). He has had just 2 homeruns since August 22nd. Rowand also struckout 35 times in August and 9 so far in September. 35 times was almost more than double any other month."
wasn't true. If he had gone 0-8 in the last 2 games, would you still be saying he didn't tail off? I am hoping that it was justa bad run and that was all. You obviously want to try to prove me wrong more than try to see what's right. It is always better to use the data to get to an answer than use an answer to get the data.
Re: Rowand's career year?
In this instance, you were using a small, selective sample to try and make a point. I said that it was foolish to do so, because taking a cross section of 10-15 games likely won't tell you a lot. And sure enough, Rowand has been hot again the last 3 games, and his rates will again improve. I pointed out your ridiculous concept of evaluating Rowand based on his HR hitting, when he's never been known as a HR hitter. 20 HR guys and 50 HR guys are much different and should be compared differently.
Yes, the walk rate is a concern, but through this entire season, Rowand's walk rate has been the best of his career. To me, that's a big step forward. You see any slip up as a chance to jump on him again, and point out who inferior he is to your favorite player. I'm at the point where, at this point, the discussion isn't even worth the time, because I think most people look at what Rowand is actually doing, over the course of 140 games, and they see the value there that you don't. I don't need to defend him anymore from silly posts like this, most people know to just click the "BACK" button and move on.
by FTN414 on Sep 18, 2007 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions
Re: Rowand's career year?
However, to your "points".
"In this instance, you were using a small, selective sample to try and make a point."
Small? Maybe, I said 22 games. I never said it was the end all be all and all I did was express concern. Selective? You mean, like the last 22 games played? How is that selective? I certainly could have added #23 and it would have raised his average, but the point wasn't that he hit a homerun 23 game prior, it was that he had hit just 2 SINCE then. That's the data buddy, there ain't nothing I did to massage it.
"I pointed out your ridiculous concept of evaluating Rowand based on his HR hitting, when he's never been known as a HR hitter. 20 HR guys and 50 HR guys are much different and should be compared differently."
This is the ULTIMATE strawman and it is sad that you have to resort to this. HR was one of many things I used to look at his play. Walks and how his OBP AND SLG had both dropped. What the heck is a homerun hitter anyway? If Rowand hits another 10 homeruns this year, is he still not a homerun hitter? HRs are part of his value and he had fallen off lately. You want to pretend that his value doesn't include homeruns, go right ahead and tell that to the Rockhead Rowand poster above your bed.
"You see any slip up as a chance to jump on him again, and point out who inferior he is to your favorite player."
Where did I mention Bobby Abreu in this post? Where did I mention ANYONE but Aaron Rowand? Where did I jump on him and call him inferior? Didn't I say I wanted him to perform well? I believe I said this...
"Let's hope he can pick it up over the last 15 games, because, we need him to hit well, and NOTHING will help his payday more than putting up good numbers in the playoffs. "
And you know what, he HAS picked it up. Maybe he read this entry and got motivated. But it doesn't change the fact that a) I said we need him to perform well to win and b) he wasn't performing well when I wrote this.
You are so unobjective here, it is ridiculous. I didn't make one point about what I wanted to happen. I admitted to being tough on him and all I said was that I wasn't sure he had it in him. I think that is a completely fair assessment to make based on his play the previous 22 games. Does 3 homers in 2 games change that? Talk about small sample size.
Re: Rowand's career year?
by Homer on Sep 19, 2007 8:32 AM EDT up reply actions
Re: Rowand's career year?
That is like saying that Biggio's career OPS is .825 (or whatever it is) and if Utley goes 0-40 to end the season it is ok with you cause he ended with a higher career OPS that Biggio.
It was just a simple point that Rowand was slumping a bit over the past 22 games and I was worried it might continue based on his career (which is an OPs around .800). How anyone can say that isn't a LEGITIMATE concern baffles me.
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