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Manuel is NOT manager of the year

There has been a lot of talk (primarily from outside Philly) about Manuel being manager of the year.  They have to be talking about the intangibles, because Manuel seems to ignore what is happening on the field and going with his gut, and it is costing us.  

I don't know if Manuel was able to turn Burrell around or make Werth hit like Ted Williams in August, but I do know that he is NOT putting his players in the best place to succeed and today was a perfect example of it.

Star-divide

 1. Putting Burrell third between Utley and Howard.  Wait a second, anyone here that has read my stuff knows that I have been pushing for Burrell to split the lefties.  Sure, that is fine and all, but I want him to split the lefties WHEN IT MATTERS.  Splitting the lefties is to take advantage of a specialist pitcher in the late innings.  Burrell isn't IN during the late innings.  That alone makes this useless and leads to point #2.  A manager of the year would be able to see this.

 2. Defensive replacement for Burrell.  There have been VERY few instances where a Burrell defensive replacement was able to make a play, when it mattered, that Burrell was unable to make.  You are increasing your defense by a small portion but taking a significant part of your offense away.  A manager of the year would be able to understand this.

 3. Just because you are fast doesn't make you a good defender.  Roberson has made quite a few bad plays.  He has to cheat in cause his arm is weak, but was unable to catch a ball that went behind him.  Excuse me, but if you can't catch that ball, then you shouldn't be playing.  A manager of the year would be able to see this.

 4. Abe Nunez.  Gimme a break with this guy already.  A manager of the year should know this.

 5. Tom Gordon is a righty specialist.

VS LHB: .313 .358 .646 1.004
VS RHB: .226 .323 .340 .662

Btw, I could tell without looking at the numbers, it is that obvious.  So, who does our manager of the year nominee bring him in to face?  Yeap, switch hitting Chipper Jones (who doubled), switch hitting Mark Teixeira (who flied out), lefty Brian McCann (who singled), righty Jeff Francoeur (who singled) and PH lefty Scott Thorman (who singled).  I know only Chippers was hit hard, but you bring in a guy who sucks against lefties and then faces 5 hitters, 4 of which hit left handed.  A manager of the year HAS to know this.

 6. 39 year old Tom Gordon was brought in, with a 6 run lead, on his 3 day in a row.  I know you don't have faith in ANY other pitcher in the pen and Gordon HAS to pitch the 8th under any and all circumstances, but this is ridiculous.  A manager of the year would laugh at this.

There are many other things he does that can warrant complaint, but this was just from today.  And all of these are pretty obvious to me.  Granted, he does do things like all managers do and he doesn't have much of a bullpen to work with, but it seems that he is set on doing things the same way every time despite it going against the odds and hurting the team.  This is NOT putting your team in a position to win.  It is a recipe for disaster.

Reminds me of the Stephen Colbert quote:  "When the president decides something on Monday, he still believes it on Wednesday - no matter what happened Tuesday."

That sums Manuel up in a nutshell.  Can't admit mistakes.

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Re: Manuel is NOT manager of the year
Well done.  Points 4 and 6 and the most damning.

by VoxOrion on Sep 6, 2007 6:28 AM EDT   0 recs

Re: Manuel is NOT manager of the year
Agreed on #6. That just boggled my mind.
Bleeding Green Nation Philadelphia Eagles Blog

by JasonB on Sep 6, 2007 10:41 AM EDT   0 recs

Re: Manuel is NOT manager of the year
I feel like an award like this is almost impossible for any baseball fan who isn't a full-time baseball follower to assess.  After all, despite all of the legitimate faults of Manuel that you've listed here, if all of the other NL managers have done a worse job managing than Manuel, then he should be manager of the year.  I don't think you would dispute that.

But, how in the world can I know (or most other fans for that matter) how the other managers have done in really affecting their team's outcomes?  I can look at records, but that doesn't tell the story.  I can look at press accounts, but that's incomplete as well (and usually much kinder than reality).  I can follow all the games, but that takes an inordinate amount of time.

Unlike MVP or Cy Young, I can't just compare easily available good metrics to figure out which manager is best.  It's left to comparative qualitative assessments that are almost impossible to do.

So maybe Manuel, despite his many flaws, is manager of the year.  Maybe not.  I have no clue.

by David S. Cohen on Sep 6, 2007 11:52 AM EDT   0 recs

Re: Manuel is NOT manager of the year
I agree. look over a handful of other teams' message boards and see how many are delighted with every move their manager makes.

not that I wasn't screaming at my computer screen yesterday (or would have been if I wasn't at work). but I would be shocked if you could find a fan of another team who doesn't find himself doing the exact same too many times to count during the season. (especially as relating to things like giving Abe Nunez playing time. Nunez is an unbelievably bad hitter and probably overrated defensively, but considering that his other options aren't hitting much ["what about Dobbs?" .272/.364/.350 since the break.] and are considerably worse defensively, what else can he really do?)

by perfectdepth on Sep 6, 2007 1:19 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Re: Manuel is NOT manager of the year
I posted a diary a week ago or so about this. I think there IS a way to quantify it. But it would take a collective effort to fine tune the methodology, and it would take a bunch of people putting in considerable time to evaluate every manager in the NL

by FTN414 on Sep 6, 2007 2:06 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Re: Manuel is NOT manager of the year
And we all responded so overwhelmingly.  :)  Actually, I'm just skeptical about whether it can be done.  What do you have in mind?

by David S. Cohen on Sep 6, 2007 2:20 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Re: Manuel is NOT manager of the year
" I can look at records, but that doesn't tell the story."

It doesn't tell the whole story, but it tells a pretty big part of it.

Bleeding Green Nation Philadelphia Eagles Blog

by JasonB on Sep 6, 2007 4:03 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Re: Manuel is NOT manager of the year
You'd have to set basic parameters. Like you'd only look at moves starting in the 7th inning. You could use weighted measures, for example, a move in a 1 run game is weighted more heavily than a move made in a 3 run game, etc etc. You'd have to define all moves, equate a value to the move.

For example, bringing in a lefty to face a switch hitter who is a better hitter RH would be a -1. If it happened in a 1 run game, it would be -3. Something like that. The outcome of the move shouldn't even be measured. Once the pitch is thrown, it's out of the manager's control. The only thing you can realistically ask for from a manager is to put the right players in the right positions. What they do is left to chance.

Just look at yesterday. When Gordon put a small village of runners on base, what was Manuel to do? Was bringing in Myers there the wrong decision? Would bringing in Mesa have been better? Using Gordon was the wrong move, using Myers probably was the right move, but it didn't work out on the 2nd part, and I don't know if you can blame the manager for his players not executing.

by FTN414 on Sep 6, 2007 2:57 PM EDT   0 recs

Re: Manuel is NOT manager of the year
A key with your Point 2 is how early he takes Burrell out. Usually he replaces him in the seventh inning, while ignoring the fact that Burrell's spot would come up in the order again.

He's butchered third base in general. Nunez should be defense-only, and Helms should be cut now on the spot. Dobbs and Iguchi should play third. That's it.

by Bono on Sep 6, 2007 4:06 PM EDT   0 recs

The Black Hole
"He's butchered third base in general."

Well, GILLICK started it! <g>

by Dalton Bouchee on Sep 6, 2007 8:39 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Re: The Black Hole
Gillick has given him four third base options in Dobbs, Iguchi, Helms, and Nunez. Dobbs and Iguchi are viable options, that Manuel should use regularly. Helms should never play and Nunez only as a defensive sub. But Manuel plays those two too much. That's my point. While Gillick has done a poor job as GM, Manuel doesn't work well with what he's got either.

by Bono on Sep 7, 2007 4:41 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Re: The Black Hole
Iguchi is not a viable option, period. maybe if you took several months to work on his arm strength and teach him a new position, he could be serviceable there. but that's impossible to do in the middle of the season and in the middle of a playoff hunt (such as it is).

and how is Dobbs any more "viable" than Helms? Helms at least has an established record in the majors and can be expected to improve, while Dobbs may have been playing over his head early in the season and has struggled in the second half. he's got only 2 HR and 9 total XBH for a .409 SLG since the break, and posted a .226/.293/.377 line in August (in fairness, he does have a solid .368 OBP since the break).

by perfectdepth on Sep 10, 2007 12:37 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Re: Manuel is NOT manager of the year
I wrote a piece about Burrell's missed AB's, and Radano wrote a piece about it last Sunday. It "cost" the team 7 wins, in that Burrell was removed early in games where we had the lead, and 7 times we lost those games, with his replacements going a total of 1/8.

by FTN414 on Sep 6, 2007 4:21 PM EDT   0 recs

Re: Manuel is NOT manager of the year
You never want to reduce something as subjective (and rightfully so) as this to numbers... but the Phillies' atrocious record in one-run games (something like 11-22) might be the strongest argument against Manuel as MoY. It's not all his fault, but little things like the early removals of Burrell and questionable pitching moves certainly contribute.

by dajafi on Sep 6, 2007 8:18 PM EDT   0 recs

Re: Manuel is NOT manager of the year
If Manuel were to play on the players who could help him win, he'd be running about 12 position players and 3 pitchers.

by pacino on Sep 7, 2007 1:33 PM EDT   0 recs

Re: Manuel is NOT manager of the year
I have to chuckle when I read stuff like this. One thing fans never ever understand is sometimes the other team is just better. Nobody ever recognizes that. It's always he shoulda brought in this pitcher, or should've pinch-hit that guy. Well not every loss is the manager's fault. Sometimes two teams play great and make all the right moves and the better team wins.

I'm going to bottom line it here: what the Phils have accomplished this year is nothing short of stunning. Name another team that would stay in contention losing its top three bullpenners for a combined seven months, three of its first four hitters in the batting order for a month each, and send five starting pitchers to the DL.

I doubt any team could overcome that and keep fighting. That's a credit to Charlie Manuel. Does he make an unusual move every now and then? Hell yeah. He doesn't have a whole lot of choices most of the time. And anybody who doesn't understand why Abraham Nunez plays 3B when Moyer pitches needs a primer on the basics of the game.

by philsme on Sep 10, 2007 8:11 PM EDT   0 recs

Re: Manuel is NOT manager of the year
I have to chuckle when I read garbage like this.  Sometimes the other team is better?  Did I make one comment in the original post that had anything to do with the other team?  

Look, I like that you have your "doubts" and your perceptions and I am sure you "watch the games" but you are about as clueless as it gets.  Why Nunez plays 3B with Moyer?  Are you freakin kidding me?  

by jonk on Sep 10, 2007 11:59 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Re: Manuel is NOT manager of the year
Well, duh.

Of course, sometimes even your best players are going to get beaten. And sometimes, they won't be available when you need them most. But jonk's point is that a manager who consistently uses his WORST options at crucial times through some misguided belief in "roles" is going to cost his team games through those choices.

Whether his apparent motivational skills make up for his obvious tactical failures is open to debate.

by phatj on Sep 11, 2007 10:03 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Re: Manuel is NOT manager of the year
Bringing in Jose Mesa last night when the team was down only 1 in the seventh inning of a virtual must-win game automatically disqualifies Manuel.

by David S. Cohen on Sep 11, 2007 10:52 AM EDT   0 recs

Re: Manuel is NOT manager of the year
"obvious tactical failures."

Ask yourself a question -- how often do I recognize when Manuel makes a successful move?

The answer is likely rarely or never. How often do you recognize a so-called "bad" move? I'd say every single loss. It's typical of fans. You need to understand all the facts before commenting on a move. Because the guys in the Phils' dugout have about 100 years in Major League baseball. For a few fans to anonymously rip their every move that doesn't work out is pretty laughable.

A more educated way to look at it is to look at the team as a whole. The talent level. Then subtract the games and players lost through injury. Come up with an objective expected record for this team. I can gaurentee you it wouldn't be anywhere near 9 games over .500.

Christ, the Phils set a record for pitchers used this year. They lead the league in comeback wins. They've shown a remarkable mental toughness in continuing to bounce back time abnd time again, dating back to the Abreu trade. And I've never seen a baseball team have more injuries than the 2007 Phils. Ever.

The Inquirer noted that Manuel has been managing 15 years and in 14 years, his teams have better second-half records.

It's no surprise that the Phils have always played hard and always played great baseball in the second half.

Manuel should be a strong contender for manager of the year. No question about it. If you understand the game that is.

by philsme on Sep 11, 2007 7:48 PM EDT   0 recs

"If you understand the game that is"
Nice. You just discredited in advance any possible argument. Never mind, let's move on.

"Ask yourself a question -- how often do I recognize when Manuel makes a successful move?

"The answer is likely rarely or never. "

If you read this blog regularly, you'll see it pointed out all the time.

"A more educated way to look at it is to look at the team as a whole. The talent level. Then subtract the games and players lost through injury. Come up with an objective expected record for this team. I can gaurentee you it wouldn't be anywhere near 9 games over .500."

This is hilarious. You start by saying that a more educated approach would be to do this, but then decline to do so yourself, and guarantee that your guess is correct. I challenge you to take your own suggestion. Keep in mind that some of those games lost to injury were Freddy Garcia, Jon Lieber and Adam Eaton. Maybe the Phillies actually benefitted from injury, eh?

"They've shown a remarkable mental toughness in continuing to bounce back time abnd time again, dating back to the Abreu trade."

So, it's not Manuel, it's finally getting rid of that bum Abreu? Or maybe it was getting rid of Bell...

"The Inquirer noted that Manuel has been managing 15 years and in 14 years, his teams have better second-half records.

"It's no surprise that the Phils have always played hard and always played great baseball in the second half."

Why don't they play better in the first half? Shouldn't Manuel be responsible for that as well?

by phatj on Sep 11, 2007 10:40 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Re: Manuel is NOT manager of the year
"If you read this blog regularly, you'll see it pointed out all the time."

I do and I don't. What I see are typical fan responses ripping the manager without much thought. In June it was an endless rip job on Manuel for not benching Burrell. Once he proves Manuel correct for continuing to play him, the comments here are of the sarcastic "Charlie had nothing to do with that" variety.

Over the past few years, another typical crusade is the know-it-all "Rollins would be batting third or fifth if Manuel had any brains." Well, Jimmy batted third in an emergency situation earlier this year and batted .260 with less production than normal. He's hitting well over .300 and headed for the MVP at leadoff. Hey, maybe Charlie knows something!

IN fact, the whole notion that Manuel "doesn't put players in position to succeed" is hilarious. Howard won the MVP last year and the Phils have two MVP candidates this year. Victorino, Werth, Rollins and Rowand are having monster career years - none of whom, I might add, are batting where the know-it-alls on this site think they should be.

Charlie has had a lot more success managing the batting order than the pitching staff, but I sense that talent has something to do with that. Still, his move to split Utley and Howard with Burrell for the Mets' series was brilliant - as was the decision to start Ennis Saturday to line up the staff for this week's Mets' series.
Manuel has a fine knack of knowing when to stick with guys and knowing when to go in another direction.

"This is hilarious. You start by saying that a more educated approach would be to do this, but then decline to do so yourself, and guarantee that your guess is correct. I challenge you to take your own suggestion. Keep in mind that some of those games lost to injury were Freddy Garcia, Jon Lieber and Adam Eaton. Maybe the Phillies actually benefitted from injury, eh?"

Did I write a column claiming the Phils have underachieved?? No, I didn't. Somebody else did and I am explaining the educated way to do so. Freddy Garcia has been a horse who won 17 games last year and went 4-0 with a sub-2.00 ERA in September.
Yeah, the Phils benefitted from his loss. Are you kidding me?

"So, it's not Manuel, it's finally getting rid of that bum Abreu? Or maybe it was getting rid of Bell..."

More of the blame game. "That bum" Abreu has been one of the Yankees' hottest hitters as they stormed back into the wild card lead. Honestly, learn the game.

"Why don't they play better in the first half? Shouldn't Manuel be responsible for that as well?"

What is this - you actually make a halfway decent point? A stunning turnaround. Sure, Manuel can rightly be blamed for poor starts. However, championships are won in August, Sept. and Oct. And he deserves a lot more praise for consistently putting a mentally tough team on the field that always plays its best ball when it counts most.

by philsme on Sep 12, 2007 9:31 AM EDT   0 recs

Re: Manuel is NOT manager of the year
"I do and I don't. What I see are typical fan responses ripping the manager without much thought. In June it was an endless rip job on Manuel for not benching Burrell. Once he proves Manuel correct for continuing to play him, the comments here are of the sarcastic "Charlie had nothing to do with that" variety."

I remember plenty of posts giving Charlie credit, but lacking any convenient way to go back and find them, we'll have to agree to disagree here. Keep in mind that posts (rightfully) bashing him for bad decisions don't mean that other posts elsewhere aren't praising him.

As to Burrell, you must be thinking of some other blog. Here's an example: http://www.thegoodphight.com/story/2007/6/13/19345/7432#extended
Nobody calling for Charlie's head over not benching Burrell here. One commenter was pretty strongly anti-Burrell, but keep in mind that's not one of the bloggers.

"Over the past few years, another typical crusade is the know-it-all "Rollins would be batting third or fifth if Manuel had any brains." Well, Jimmy batted third in an emergency situation earlier this year and batted .260 with less production than normal. He's hitting well over .300 and headed for the MVP at leadoff. Hey, maybe Charlie knows something!

"IN fact, the whole notion that Manuel "doesn't put players in position to succeed" is hilarious. Howard won the MVP last year and the Phils have two MVP candidates this year. Victorino, Werth, Rollins and Rowand are having monster career years - none of whom, I might add, are batting where the know-it-alls on this site think they should be.

"Charlie has had a lot more success managing the batting order than the pitching staff, but I sense that talent has something to do with that. Still, his move to split Utley and Howard with Burrell for the Mets' series was brilliant - as was the decision to start Ennis Saturday to line up the staff for this week's Mets' series.
Manuel has a fine knack of knowing when to stick with guys and knowing when to go in another direction."

Now you're changing the subject. Nobody, at least not in this thread, was arguing that Manuel's problem was creating lineups (largely because most on this blog feel that lineup order is pretty insignificant in actual impact on run scoring), or that Manuel doesn't put players in a position to succeed.

"Did I write a column claiming the Phils have underachieved?? No, I didn't. Somebody else did and I am explaining the educated way to do so. Freddy Garcia has been a horse who won 17 games last year and went 4-0 with a sub-2.00 ERA in September.
Yeah, the Phils benefitted from his loss. Are you kidding me?"

What does Freddy Garcia's September of 2006 have to do with anything? How many wins did the Phillies get from him this year? By getting hurt (or, by finally admitting to being hurt, perhaps), he gave the Phillies the opportunity to replace him with somebody, somebody who might not stink as badly.

"More of the blame game. "That bum" Abreu has been one of the Yankees' hottest hitters as they stormed back into the wild card lead. Honestly, learn the game."

Now I know you haven't been reading this blog very carefully. With the exception of a couple commenters, TGP consists of the President, Vice President, Secretary, Treasurer and Parliamentarian of the Bobby Abreu Fan Club -- myself included. You need to recalibrate your sarcasm detector; my point there was that your post seemed to be a slight against Abreu -- else why would you mention him in that context?

"What is this - you actually make a halfway decent point? A stunning turnaround. Sure, Manuel can rightly be blamed for poor starts. However, championships are won in August, Sept. and Oct. And he deserves a lot more praise for consistently putting a mentally tough team on the field that always plays its best ball when it counts most."

Thanks, I always knew I could do it.

NEWSFLASH: championships are NOT won in August or September. You may have noticed that Manuel's teams the last couple years have come up short of the playoffs, let alone championships, despite strong play in August and September. Why might that be?

by phatj on Sep 12, 2007 10:44 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Re: Manuel is NOT manager of the year
Just a sampling of some of the Manuel lovin' around here:

Manuel knows how to coach hitters

Manuel helps clutch performances

Manuel keeps the team going despite injuries

Manuel may be learning to get better bench performances

Now, we're all too skeptical around here to give him all-out praise, even in these positive performances.  But, that's the nature of managerial performance, right?  What they do right is mostly behind closed doors, so we're just left to infer.  But, there's no doubt that we've inferred in his favor many times on this site, as these posts are just a sampling from this year only.

by David S. Cohen on Sep 12, 2007 10:56 AM EDT   0 recs

Re: Manuel is NOT manager of the year
"Now you're changing the subject. Nobody, at least not in this thread, was arguing that Manuel's problem was creating lineups (largely because most on this blog feel that lineup order is pretty insignificant in actual impact on run scoring), or that Manuel doesn't put players in a position to succeed."

Actually, that's exactly what is stated in the original commentary: "I do know that he is NOT putting his players in the best place to succeed."
It is all just more of the typical Phillies' bash and manager attitude that is tiresome and uninformed. When Francona was here, he was deemed too soft. Bowa came in and was deemed too harsh. Nothing will satisfy Phillies' fans hell-bent on ripping the manager for anything less than a WS ring every year.

"What does Freddy Garcia's September of 2006 have to do with anything? How many wins did the Phillies get from him this year? By getting hurt (or, by finally admitting to being hurt, perhaps), he gave the Phillies the opportunity to replace him with somebody, somebody who might not stink as badly."

Garcia averaged 16-18 wins over the past six years and that is the pitcher the Phils traded for. He took up a monster part of their salary allotment. By being hurt all year, it severely hurt the team and Manuel's options. Nobody here is judging Manuel fairly. In a sense, you are judging him based on a preseason rotation of Hamels, Garcia, Myers, Moyer, Eaton and Lieber - when in reality, what he has is Eaton, Moyer, Durbin, Kendrick, Lohse and a variety of additional castoffs.

What looked great on paper was decimated by injuries and awful pitching. You need to adjust your expectations accordingly.

"Now I know you haven't been reading this blog very carefully. With the exception of a couple commenters, TGP consists of the President, Vice President, Secretary, Treasurer and Parliamentarian of the Bobby Abreu Fan Club -- myself included. You need to recalibrate your sarcasm detector; my point there was that your post seemed to be a slight against Abreu -- else why would you mention him in that context?"

My original point was to mention how the team rebounded incredibly last July/August after Gillick and everyone else assumed they would go in the toilet following the loss of a great all-time offensive player. Not sure how that is slighting Abreu.

"NEWSFLASH: championships are NOT won in August or September. You may have noticed that Manuel's teams the last couple years have come up short of the playoffs, let alone championships, despite strong play in August and September. Why might that be?"

Actually, that's exactly when championships are won. The Phillies have had extraordinarily strong play down the stretch in recent years. Why haven't they won? Well, let me suggest an incredibly novel idea here - other teams were better. Yeah, I don't it's just off-the-wall crazy, but all these other teams? They are trying to win as well. Crazy I know. We tend to think they should just lay down and make way for the Awesome Phillies we all love, but sometimes they don't acquiesce.

The Phillies' biggest problem is their pitching choices just haven't matched their hitting choices. Now I believe some of that is luck. After all, they tried to give Victorino back and the Dodgers didn't want him. Howard was just a 5th round draft pick. The Phils have gotten some luck with their hitters. Pitching is some bad luck, but more poor decision-making. Charlie Manuel can't make Adam Eaton pitch better. Just like he couldn't look into a crystal ball (Or order an MRI) to determine that Garcia was damaged goods. Same with the bullpen - Charlie can't make meatloaf out of grisle.

That's why the Phils haven't won. They have the best manager for the job.

by philsme on Sep 12, 2007 11:05 AM EDT   0 recs

My bad
This discussion has gone a bit afield since the original post. I missed that comment in the original post. I'm not sure that it's wrong, though, Howard's MVP campaign and so forth notwithstanding. There are other players on the team, after all.

My point with respect to Garcia (and Lieber, and Eaton) was only that them going on the disabled list was, in fact, a BENEFIT to the team. I realize that had Garcia been healthy and given us an average Freddy Garcia season, we would probably be in the Wild Card lead, if not the division.

Once again: championships are not, repeat NOT, won in August and September. You can look it up. You're missing a point about why the Phillies haven't won. Yes, "other teams were better" -- over the ENTIRE season. The reason the strong finishes have not been enough is because the teams were too far back -- due to poor performance earlier in the season. If Manuel is given credit for one, he must take blame for the other.

Look, maybe I've not made it clear -- I'm not trying to get Charlie fired. I like him quite a bit. In fact, I have stated elsewhere that he should be a candidate for Manager of the Year. What I'm saying here is that I have reservations about some of his tactical abilities. Yeah, he can't make meatloaf out of gristle -- but even if his only choices are between bad and worse, he still has a choice to make. Too often, in my opinion, he has chosen "worse."

by phatj on Sep 12, 2007 12:54 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Re: Manuel is NOT manager of the year
Will Caroll's take from an injury perspective:  "There's late word that Shane Victorino pulled up lame during a pinch-hitting appearance. While there has been no official comment from the Phillies, it would appear that this would be a recurrence of his calf strain or, worse, a cascade issue from that previous injury. Although Michael Bourn is back and Jayson Werth contributing, and looming beyond the outfield picture is the good news that Cole Hamels is making progress, losing Victorino for even a short time could hamper the Phillies playoff hopes. Worse, the situation Victorino was used in seemed pretty meaningless. This type of play, this type of ignorance of risk, is the one thing I keep noticing with Charlie Manuel, and it's the reason he won't get my vote when the IBA ballots come out (Ed. Note: And that's in less than two weeks, folks.)"

by David S. Cohen on Sep 12, 2007 1:26 PM EDT   0 recs

Re: Manuel is NOT manager of the year
"My point with respect to Garcia (and Lieber, and Eaton) was only that them going on the disabled list was, in fact, a BENEFIT to the team. I realize that had Garcia been healthy and given us an average Freddy Garcia season, we would probably be in the Wild Card lead, if not the division."

The point is you're comparing the general consensus of the Phillies as "the team to beat" from the offseason. I would say they've suffered more losses than any team in baseball. Yet, Manuel is being picked apart for silly little decisions as though the Phillies should be winning their division by 12 games.

Absent any real hardcore research here, my guess is a legitimate assessment of the 2007 Phillies that takes into account all their injuries would pinpoint their expected record at around .500.

"Once again: championships are not, repeat NOT, won in August and September. You can look it up. You're missing a point about why the Phillies haven't won. Yes, "other teams were better" -- over the ENTIRE season. The reason the strong finishes have not been enough is because the teams were too far back -- due to poor performance earlier in the season. If Manuel is given credit for one, he must take blame for the other."

I'm not missing any point. I said slow early starts are a legitimate criticism. But a team that consistently plays terrific down the stretch is a great attribute in my mind. That's when championships are won. And every manager makes poor moves - often for reasons the typical fan doesn't even know about. For example, Manuel brings in Jose Mesa to face Matt Holiday and Brad Hawpe in a one-run game. To you it makes no sense whatsoever. But suppose - and I'm not saying it's true - that those to Rockies are a combined 4-25 against Mesa in their careers?

To Charlie and Dubee, Mesa's as good an option there as any of their other kerosene-bearing relievers out there.

by philsme on Sep 12, 2007 2:03 PM EDT   0 recs

"That's when championships are won."
NO, IT IS NOT. STOP SAYING THAT.

Championships are won in October. The privilege of playing October baseball is won by having the best record in the regular season; April games being weighted exactly the same as September games.

"To Charlie and Dubee, Mesa's as good an option there as any of their other kerosene-bearing relievers out there."

If true, they're clearly insane.

by phatj on Sep 12, 2007 3:52 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

philsme
"If you understand the game that is."

This kind of reasoning is so completely craptastic that it undermines all of your posts (which is a good thing since they were so inaccurate, I can't even begin to attack them like phatj has).

However, I will focus on my original post.  Despite your ardent defense of Manuel, did you even read my post and show how any of it is not true?  I'll rehash all the points for you.

  1. We were calling for Manuel to split Howard and Utley for over a year.  The move itself is fine but makes little sense when you pull him at the end of a game.  He needs to split Howard and Utley to gain the advantage when an opposing coach puts in a lefty specialist at the end of the game.  If he isn't playing, then there is no advantage.  Is this wrong?
  2. Defensive replacement for Burrell.  How many plays have they made that Burrell could not have made (or haven't made that he could have)?  Is that worth his missed ABs?  FTN has shown here that it is not.  Please explain how it is.
  3. I don't know if Roberson is a good defender or not or even Bourn for that matter.  Too much vagueness still exists in defensive statistics.  However, just to put him in there because he is fast makes no sense.  Is that wrong?
  4. Abe Nunez?  Are you saying you agree with him playing?  He is one of the worst hitting players in the league.  His defense is ok.  There are plenty of no hit great defensive players in the minors.  Why pay Abe Nunez when we could get one of them for the minimum.  He is completely awful.  
  5. Are you saying that Gordon is not a righty specialist now?  He has a TON of trouble with lefties, ESPECIALLY those with power (see Prince Fielder).  I like Gordon more than most, but only if he pitches to righties or lefty slap hitters.  Explain to me how he should pitch to lefty sluggers.
  6. Speaking of Gordon, did it make sense to put him in for a 3rd game in a row?  With a 6 run lead, against almost all lefties, and did I mention he is 39?  You can justify that?
What is funny is that, at no point, did I say Manuel was a BAD manager.  I give him credit for whatever he is doing that can't be objectively analyzed.  However, these kinds of mistakes HURT your team's chances.  He is not making the best use of his players.  I have outlined 6 examples and I could probably come up with another 6.  Do other managers do stuff like that?  Sure.  But they aren't managers of the year either.

by jonk on Sep 12, 2007 4:56 PM EDT   0 recs

Re: Manuel is NOT manager of the year
Dude, you are a typical fan, through and through. Passionate as all hell, and I commend you for that. The first thing you need to realize is for all the passion you have and work you put into studying this shit down to all the crazy Bill James' formulas you can find -- you still don't know as much about the game as Charlie Manuel.

You don't have access to the tools and imformation he has. Neither do I. Don't drive yourself crazy breaking down every facet of why he used a certain pitcher at a certain time.

I couldn't possibly be qualified to comment on that.

  1. As for Abe Nunez. Yes, he should be playing when Moyer pitches. When Lieber pitches. When Kendrick pitches. Helms is not a third baseman. Dobbs is not a third baseman. This team doesn't need offense. That is an easy one.
  2. As for Pat Burrell. I don't have any problem taking him our for defense. You play to win games -- not with the expectation that you're going to need a certain player's offense later in the game after your bullpen blows the lead.
That is no way to manage. Roberson screwed up and won't be playing defense again. Bourn's speed made him a huge improvement over Burrell's limited range.

3. As for Utley and Howard, why don't you go study how many games the Phils took over early with an offensive explosion against a RH pitcher in large part due to the Utley-Howard attack. The Phils are made to win on offense now and Charlie prefers to load up and attack early. I like that aggressiveness. And truth be told, for the most part, Burrell hasn't been good enough to challenge for a higher spot in the batting order.

Again, you're problem is you want to pick out the minutiae of a game decision to pitch a certain player for use a defensive replacement as some indictment of the guy's managing ability.

Answer my question: Have the Phils -- with 5 starting pitchers hitting the DL, their top 3 relievers spending seven months on the DL and three of their top guys in the lineup missing a month each -- overachieved or underachieved?

If you try and claim this team should have won more games, then you're an even bigger clown than you appear to be.

by philsme on Sep 12, 2007 8:26 PM EDT   0 recs

Re: Manuel is NOT manager of the year
I can't tell if this is a joke or not.  It seems to be too involved for someone to pretend to be this obtuse, but, here it is.  I think calling me a typical fan through and through is about as ridiculous as you can get.  You mock me for passion and then for using Bill James' "crazy" formulas.  Well, which on is it?  Formulas have no passion.

As for the rest of it, I could spend the next 15 minutes proving it wrong only to have you respond making more wrong comments.  Like I said before, this isn;t about Manuel being a bad manager.  This is about Manuel putting his players in the best spot to succeed.  He has failed to do that numerous times.  Anyone who says that Nunez should be starting is about as credible as a monkey with no arms.

by jonk on Sep 12, 2007 9:59 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Look, dude
"... you still don't know as much about the game as Charlie Manuel.

"You don't have access to the tools and imformation he has. Neither do I. Don't drive yourself crazy breaking down every facet of why he used a certain pitcher at a certain time.

"I couldn't possibly be qualified to comment on that."

Since when do we need to be privy to all the information that managers are in order to second-guess their decisions? Sports fans have been doing this since time immemorial.

"As for Abe Nunez. Yes, he should be playing when Moyer pitches. When Lieber pitches. When Kendrick pitches. Helms is not a third baseman. Dobbs is not a third baseman. This team doesn't need offense. That is an easy one."

If the available options are Abraham Nunez, and Wes Helms (2007 version), I don't care who plays. But Dobbs is so much better a hitter than Nunez or Helms that I would play him, at least against RHP. I think it's foolish to simply assume that because the Phillies have a great offense, they can sacrifice offense for defense. The Phillies need to outscore their opponents. There are a number of ways to accomplish this.

"As for Pat Burrell. I don't have any problem taking him our for defense. You play to win games -- not with the expectation that you're going to need a certain player's offense later in the game after your bullpen blows the lead."

Playing to win means balancing run scoring potential with run prevention potential. It would be foolhardy to simply assume that the bullpen will hold the lead, and that Pat's bat won't be needed again. If you have a three-run lead going into the 9th -- sure, put Bourn in for Burrell. A one run lead in the 7th? Bad idea. There's probably a tipping point in between these two extremes, but it seems to me that Manuel has tended towards the latter.

"Answer my question: Have the Phils -- with 5 starting pitchers hitting the DL, their top 3 relievers spending seven months on the DL and three of their top guys in the lineup missing a month each -- overachieved or underachieved?"

That's a good question. But A) it's virtually impossible to answer objectively and B) I don't think it's the only way to evaluate Manuel's performance.

"Again, you're problem is you want to pick out the minutiae of a game decision to pitch a certain player for use a defensive replacement as some indictment of the guy's managing ability."

What's wrong with this? Surely the minutiae are worth examining. Any individual decision is probably a drop in the ocean in the context of the season as a whole, but one can look at patterns. Of course, there's no easily-examined record of any of this, so once again, we're making these evaluations on a subjective basis.

Basically, there is NO way to objectively quantify managerial performance. Your method is to say that the Phillies have overachieved given their injuries, and give Charlie the credit. You have made subjective evaluations twice in so doing -- once saying the Phillies have overachieved, and again in attributing it to Manuel. Others are attempting to evaluate his decisions on a more granular level, but again, it's done subjectively. Why is your method better?

by phatj on Sep 13, 2007 12:28 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Re: Manuel is NOT manager of the year
Right knee injury for Kendrick.

Obviously Charlie's fault.

Somebody on this team is cursed.

by philsme on Sep 12, 2007 8:33 PM EDT   0 recs

See, Kendrick wasn't in a position to succeed
If he had been standing somewhere else, he wouldn't have gotten hit. Har!

by phatj on Sep 13, 2007 12:05 AM EDT   0 recs

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