Better or worse than last year?
I am not really going to put much into this, but would rather see people's opinions on the state of the team. Let's ignore what the other teams have done (that certainly is a factor, but I am not taking that into consideration right now).
The primary moves have been:
Added:
Geoff Jenkins
Pedro Feliz
Brad Lidge
Lost:
Aaron Rowand
Jon Lieber/Freddy Garcia
Geoff Geary
Potential roster:
Catchers
Ruiz
Coste
Infielders
Howard
Utley
Rollins
Feliz
Dobbs
Bruntlett
Outfielders
Burrell
Victorino
Jenkins
Werth
Taguchi
Starting Pitchers
Hamels
Myers
Moyer
Kendrick
Eaton
Relief Pitchers
Chad Durbin
Zagurski/Happ
Rosario/Mathieson
Madson
Romero
Gordon
Lidge
A lot of unexpected things happened during the season last year and I am not sure how much we can expect it to occur again.
Are you happier now with this team than you were at the begging of last year? How about the end of last year?
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Re: Better or worse than last year?
because I had higher expectations for the rotation, I would say I was happier at the beginning of last year than I am at the beginning of this season. not many teams had as "solid" of a starting five as we did with myers, hamels, moyer, garcia, eaton/lieber.
But, concerning the end of last year... after the holes in the rotation emerged, i would have to say that I am happier now. I know everyone expects kendrick to have a down year--which he may, but my confidence that he can be an 4ish era guy is not shaken. having myers back at the top of the rotation is huge, eaton can't be worse than he was last year (right?), and hamels and moyer will be hamels and moyer. I'd like to see the team make another move (loshe loshe loshe loshe loshe..), but as we are right now, Im fairly happy.
starting lineup - same
rotation - better
bullpen - who knows/same
bench - better
=
WS 08
Re: Better or worse than last year?
Brunitz? Don't scare me.
Subtracting Nunez, Barajas, Alfonseca and Mesa adds to the overall talent level of the team. Another subtraction, Bourn, does not seem ready now (and if not now, when?) to be a major league starter. The OF platoon of Jenkins/Werth should equal Rowand's production as he reverts to the mean. I doubt Feliz is much of an upgrade or downgrade offensively over Dobbs/Helms, but having a 3B who is a capable defender gives Ole Charlie more flexibility. I prefer a rotation that begins Hamels, Myers to Hamels, Moyer. A return of his missing mojo would make Lidge the equal of Myers as closer. And the bench is more flexible with Bruntlett, Coste, Taguchi and maybe Snelling than with Bourn, Barajas, Nunez and Helms (presuming he is dealt.) Apart from the failure to add an above-average FA SP (and who exactly would that have been?) I don't find anything not to like, though I'm sure someone will.
by Chris R on Jan 30, 2008 10:08 AM EST reply actions
Re: Better or worse than last year?
But none of the moves, with the possible exception of Feliz--and even he might not be as awful as he is aesthetically displeasing--have been bad. Compared to the end of last season, I think the lineup is very slightly worse, the rotation is a bit better, the bullpen is better (I'm an optimist on Lidge), the bench is better, and the system is a little deeper in terms of potential fill-ins (Snelling, Youman).
Problem is that the Mets are definitely better, and the Braves might be better (though they'll miss Renteria).
Re: Better or worse than last year?
by gooplight00 on Jan 31, 2008 3:09 AM EST reply actions
Re: Better or worse than last year?
Starting pitching: Same, really. Hamels and Myers, sure, but the back end is, to put it mildly, worrisome. Eaton should regress (in a good way) to the mean a bit, but I'm very worried about Kendrick's inevitable BABIP reality check.
Bullpen: Better. I'm a believer in Lidge, and one could certainly do worse than Gordon, Romero and Madson to set up. I'm also hoping for Mathieson and maybe Happ to be meaningful contributors (of strikeouts) this season.
Defense: Better. Putting aside for a moment his cringe-inducing OBP, Feliz really is that good defensively, and having him there instead of Helms or Dobbs will count for something. I also think Victorino is an upgrade over Rowand in center. Of course, we downgrade in right from Vic to Werth/Jenkins, but overall I consider it a plus.
So in the final analysis, unless they outplay their Pythag by a considerable margin, it seems to me we're looking at another 85-90 win team. Maybe I'm just depressed about the Mets right now, but I think it's back to the WC fight for the Phils.
by Seth @ The Good Phight on Jan 31, 2008 4:25 AM EST reply actions
Re: Better or worse than last year?
Also, I think Kendrick's BABIP was around .280-.290... not flukishly unlucky, though if he goes beyond regression to the mean and doesn't raise the K rate he'll struggle to keep the ERA under 5.
My fear with Kendrick is that he starts overthrowing in an effort to get more velocity, and blows out his arm.
Good points about the bullpen. One area in which I think Manuel has improved over his Phillies tenure is that he now will more quickly ditch relievers who aren't performing... so if any of the guys currently being relied upon can't cut it, I expect to see Happ/Bisenius/Mathieson/whoever to get innings by June at the latest.
Re: Better or worse than last year?
BABIP with bases empty: .306
with runners on: .254
with RISP: .216
His K and BB rates are virtually identical across the 3 subsets, so I don't think this indicates some fantastic ability to pitch out of the stretch. His ERA was held down by a lot of luck in tough situations.
by Seth @ The Good Phight on Feb 1, 2008 8:14 AM EST up reply actions
Re: Better or worse than last year?
Re: Better or worse than last year?
by Homer on Feb 1, 2008 7:11 PM EST up reply actions
Re: Better or worse than last year?
My expectations for Kendrick are around 170 IP, 4.80 ERA. With our offense, if he's the #5, that's fine.
I'm just not sure he isn't the #3. Which scares me.
Re: Better or worse than last year?
last spring, the rotation looked pretty solid to me since i was assuming decent health and solid production from lieber-garcia-myers as starters.
gordon and alf made the bullpen look vunerable, and i didn't really expect the huge years from rowand and rollins. i was afraid of helms imploding and was hopeful but very uncertain about werth and victorino. this year i'm no more worried about feliz than i was about helms, and much more confident in rollins and the outfield, but the rotation after the top two is so questionable that i'm more scared of it than almost any time since myers arrived.
comparing things to the end of last season, the arrival of lidge and jenkins and feliz are enough to counter the loss of rowand and lohse, but not to be an improvement.
again, i think there should be a net improvement relative to the whole of last year `cause its hard to worse injury luck than the losses of hamels-myers-utley-howard-gordon-lieber-garcia.
the trouble is that thanks to pedro and johan, the mets are even more improved, so the slightly improved phillies might still lose more games than last year.
Re: Better or worse than last year?
Re: Better or worse than last year?
Problem is, do they really even need him?
Re: Better or worse than last year?
Starting with the losses. I loved Rowand and how he played the game, he really was a Philly guy ie: Dykstra. I am not sure he could have put up the same numbers this year and frankly isn't worth the $ the Giants paid him. That said I wish him well.
Lieber, being in a contract year I thought he would have shed 25 pounds and come to camp in shape. Nuff said.
Garcia was hurt before we got him, Sept '06 should have sent up the red flags. But I say that in hindsight as I was as excited to get him as I was Millwood a couple of years ago (sigh).
Geary came off an excellent '06 and I thought he came into his own, wrong. No big loss here.
Jenkins is gonna love hitting in the bandbox. Feliz may have a horrible OBP but his glove will atone for it as will an occasional homer. Lidge has lots of motivation to prove Houston wrong, he needed out of there and has something to prove. He'll be fine.
by Beaver Cleaver on Feb 2, 2008 12:38 PM EST reply actions
Re: Better or worse than last year?
What Red Flags do a 4-1 record and a 2.49 ERA with a 29/8 K/W rate send up? That's what he did in September of '06. He was also throwing 92 MPH fastballs.
The Phils took a chance thaat a guy who threw 200 plus innings of better than league average pitching for almost all of the previous EIGHT seasons had one more good year left in him.
Johan Santana has as many Red Flags as Garcia did -- probably more.
by smitty @ The Good Phight on Feb 2, 2008 3:37 PM EST up reply actions
Re: Better or worse than last year?
by Beaver Cleaver on Feb 4, 2008 6:38 PM EST reply actions

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