Navigation: Jump to content areas:


Pro Quality. Fan Perspective.
Login-facebook
Around SBN: Transfer Rumor: Bolton On Verge of First Signings

Better or worse than last year?

I am not really going to put much into this, but would rather see people's opinions on the state of the team.  Let's ignore what the other teams have done (that certainly is a factor, but I am not taking that into consideration right now).

The primary moves have been:

Added:
Geoff Jenkins
Pedro Feliz
Brad Lidge

Lost:
Aaron Rowand
Jon Lieber/Freddy Garcia
Geoff Geary

Star-divide

Potential roster:

Catchers
Ruiz
Coste

Infielders
Howard
Utley
Rollins
Feliz
Dobbs
Bruntlett

Outfielders
Burrell
Victorino
Jenkins
Werth
Taguchi

Starting Pitchers
Hamels
Myers
Moyer
Kendrick
Eaton

Relief Pitchers
Chad Durbin
Zagurski/Happ
Rosario/Mathieson
Madson
Romero
Gordon
Lidge

A lot of unexpected things happened during the season last year and I am not sure how much we can expect it to occur again.

Are you happier now with this team than you were at the begging of last year?  How about the end of last year?

Comment 18 comments  |  0 recs  | 

Do you like this story?

Comments

Display:

Re: Better or worse than last year?
when you say we added jeremy burnitz, you mean that we added Jenkins, right?

because I had higher expectations for the rotation, I would say I was happier at the beginning of last year than I am at the beginning of this season.  not many teams had as "solid" of a starting five as we did with myers, hamels, moyer, garcia, eaton/lieber.

But, concerning the end of last year... after the holes in the rotation emerged, i would have to say that I am happier now.  I know everyone expects kendrick to have a down year--which he may, but my confidence that he can be an 4ish era guy is not shaken.  having myers back at the top of the rotation is huge, eaton can't be worse than he was last year (right?), and hamels and moyer will be hamels and moyer.  I'd like to see the team make another move (loshe loshe loshe loshe loshe..), but as we are right now, Im fairly happy.

starting lineup - same
rotation - better
bullpen - who knows/same
bench - better

=

WS 08

by char6587 on Jan 30, 2008 8:18 AM EST reply actions  

Re: Better or worse than last year?
I would also like to point out that our most significant acquisition may not have been listed above, or may not have even happened yet.  Last year, everybody, including myself, was thrilled with the Freddy Garcia deal.  However, the players that helped us win our first division title since '93 were Romero, Dobbs, Werth, Kendrick, and Bourn.  Who knows if Snelling is going to make the roster and have a significant impact, or if Mathieson will be throwing heat in the 'pen, or if Outman lives up to his name in an unexpected call up.  I realize these things cannot be accounted for at this moment in time, but, don't forget that more help may be on the way.

by Neduol Caz on Jan 30, 2008 9:15 AM EST reply actions  

Brunitz? Don't scare me.
I think the team is marginally better in several areas, and weaker in none.  
Subtracting Nunez, Barajas, Alfonseca and Mesa adds to the overall talent level of the team.  Another subtraction, Bourn, does not seem ready now (and if not now, when?) to be a major league starter.  The OF platoon of Jenkins/Werth should equal Rowand's production as he reverts to the mean. I doubt Feliz is much of an upgrade or downgrade offensively over Dobbs/Helms, but having a 3B who is a capable defender gives Ole Charlie more flexibility. I prefer a rotation that begins Hamels, Myers to Hamels, Moyer.  A return of his missing mojo would make Lidge the equal of Myers as closer.  And the bench is more flexible with Bruntlett, Coste, Taguchi and maybe Snelling than with Bourn, Barajas, Nunez and Helms (presuming he is dealt.)  Apart from the failure to add an above-average FA SP (and who exactly would that have been?) I don't find anything not to like, though I'm sure someone will.

by Chris R on Jan 30, 2008 10:08 AM EST reply actions  

Re: Better or worse than last year?
It's tough to say, because Rowand was so much better last year than any of us expected.

But none of the moves, with the possible exception of Feliz--and even he might not be as awful as he is aesthetically displeasing--have been bad. Compared to the end of last season, I think the lineup is very slightly worse, the rotation is a bit better, the bullpen is better (I'm an optimist on Lidge), the bench is better, and the system is a little deeper in terms of potential fill-ins (Snelling, Youman).

Problem is that the Mets are definitely better, and the Braves might be better (though they'll miss Renteria).

by dajafi on Jan 30, 2008 12:23 PM EST reply actions  

Re: Better or worse than last year?
I think the whole team is totally better than last year. I agree that Rowand was so much better last year than we have expected.

by gooplight00 on Jan 31, 2008 3:09 AM EST reply actions  

Re: Better or worse than last year?
Offense: I think they'll score fewer runs than last year, but not that many fewer. I love Victorino, but he's just not going to replicate what Rowand did last year. It's not outrageous to expect Rollins and Utley to regress a tad, but we could also see Howard improve a bit if his batting average can creep upward. Feliz is an out-making machine, but OFJOAB favors him, and it's not like he's replacing anyone great at third.

Starting pitching: Same, really. Hamels and Myers, sure, but the back end is, to put it mildly, worrisome. Eaton should regress (in a good way) to the mean a bit, but I'm very worried about Kendrick's inevitable BABIP reality check.

Bullpen: Better. I'm a believer in Lidge, and one could certainly do worse than Gordon, Romero and Madson to set up. I'm also hoping for Mathieson and maybe Happ to be meaningful contributors (of strikeouts) this season.

Defense: Better. Putting aside for a moment his cringe-inducing OBP, Feliz really is that good defensively, and having him there instead of Helms or Dobbs will count for something. I also think Victorino is an upgrade over Rowand in center. Of course, we downgrade in right from Vic to Werth/Jenkins, but overall I consider it a plus.

So in the final analysis, unless they outplay their Pythag by a considerable margin, it seems to me we're looking at another 85-90 win team. Maybe I'm just depressed about the Mets right now, but I think it's back to the WC fight for the Phils.

by Seth @ The Good Phight on Jan 31, 2008 4:25 AM EST reply actions  

Re: Better or worse than last year?
I agree with almost all of this--though Jenkins is a pretty strong defender, as is Werth, and on balance I think the OF defense will be about as good.

Also, I think Kendrick's BABIP was around .280-.290... not flukishly unlucky, though if he goes beyond regression to the mean and doesn't raise the K rate he'll struggle to keep the ERA under 5.

My fear with Kendrick is that he starts overthrowing in an effort to get more velocity, and blows out his arm.

Good points about the bullpen. One area in which I think Manuel has improved over his Phillies tenure is that he now will more quickly ditch relievers who aren't performing... so if any of the guys currently being relied upon can't cut it, I expect to see Happ/Bisenius/Mathieson/whoever to get innings by June at the latest.

by dajafi on Jan 31, 2008 10:43 PM EST up reply actions  

Re: Better or worse than last year?
It's true that at first glance, Kendrick's BABIP doesn't look so crazy. I should've been more specific:

BABIP with bases empty: .306
with runners on: .254
with RISP: .216

His K and BB rates are virtually identical across the 3 subsets, so I don't think this indicates some fantastic ability to pitch out of the stretch. His ERA was held down by a lot of luck in tough situations.

by Seth @ The Good Phight on Feb 1, 2008 8:14 AM EST up reply actions  

Re: Better or worse than last year?
But doesn't that mean that in the future, he's likely to have a lower BABIP with bases empty and thus get into fewer of those tough situations to begin with?

by taco pal on Feb 1, 2008 2:20 PM EST up reply actions  

Re: Better or worse than last year?
No... a .300 BABIP is about league average if I'm not mistaken.  I think it means he was right where he should be with no one on... and its going to be ugly when he regresses to the mean with guys on base.

by Homer on Feb 1, 2008 7:11 PM EST up reply actions  

Re: Better or worse than last year?
Thanks, good detail. I do remember his being extraordinarily lucky... though I guess the low walk rate in those situations speaks somewhat to his composure and ability to make good pitches in tight spots.

My expectations for Kendrick are around 170 IP, 4.80 ERA. With our offense, if he's the #5, that's fine.

I'm just not sure he isn't the #3. Which scares me.

by dajafi on Feb 1, 2008 2:46 PM EST up reply actions  

Re: Better or worse than last year?
i this team is about as good as the one that started 2007 and the one that ended 2007.   thanks to all of the injuries last year, it is somewhat better than the average of all phillies teams that took the field last year.

last spring, the rotation looked pretty solid to me since i was assuming decent health and solid production from lieber-garcia-myers as starters.
gordon and alf made the bullpen look vunerable, and i didn't really expect the huge years from rowand and rollins.  i was afraid of helms imploding and was hopeful but very uncertain about werth and victorino.   this year i'm no more worried about feliz than i was about helms, and much more confident in rollins and the outfield, but the rotation after the top two is so questionable that i'm more scared of it than almost any time since myers arrived.

comparing things to the end of last season, the arrival of lidge and jenkins and feliz are enough to counter the loss of rowand and lohse, but not to be an improvement.

again, i think there should be a net improvement relative to the whole of last year `cause its hard to worse injury luck than the losses of hamels-myers-utley-howard-gordon-lieber-garcia.

 the trouble is that thanks to pedro and johan, the mets are even more improved, so the slightly improved phillies might still lose more games than last year.

by phorever on Jan 31, 2008 8:40 AM EST reply actions  

Re: Better or worse than last year?
I have my doubts that 2008 Pedro will be all that much better than 2007 Glavine. (Santana is a different matter, of course.)

by taco pal on Jan 31, 2008 3:59 PM EST up reply actions  

Re: Better or worse than last year?
I'm almost positive that 2008 Pedro won't pitch nearly as much as 2007 Glavine. My guess is that he's on the DL by the all star break.

Problem is, do they really even need him?

Bleeding Green Nation Philadelphia Eagles Blog

by JasonB on Jan 31, 2008 9:54 PM EST up reply actions  

Re: Better or worse than last year?
I tend to be positive and looking a what the team lost vs gained I feel we have made some good moves.

Starting with the losses.  I loved Rowand and how he played the game, he really was a Philly guy ie: Dykstra. I am not sure he could have put up the same numbers this year and frankly isn't worth the $ the Giants paid him.  That said I wish him well.

Lieber, being in a contract year I thought he would have shed 25 pounds and come to camp in shape.  Nuff said.

Garcia was hurt before we got him, Sept '06 should have sent up the red flags.  But I say that in hindsight as I was as excited to get him as I was Millwood a couple of years ago (sigh).

Geary came off an excellent '06 and I thought he came into his own, wrong.  No big loss here.

Jenkins is gonna love hitting in the bandbox.  Feliz may have a horrible OBP but his glove will atone for it as will an occasional homer.  Lidge has lots of motivation to prove Houston wrong, he needed out of there and has something to prove.  He'll be fine.

by Beaver Cleaver on Feb 2, 2008 12:38 PM EST reply actions  

Re: Better or worse than last year?
The 20-20 hindsight regarding Garcia never ceases to amaze me.

What Red Flags do a 4-1 record and a 2.49 ERA with a 29/8 K/W rate send up?  That's what he did in September of '06.  He was also throwing 92 MPH fastballs.  

The Phils took a chance thaat a guy who threw 200 plus innings of better than league average pitching for almost all of the previous EIGHT seasons had one more good year left in him.  

Johan Santana has as many Red Flags as Garcia did -- probably more.

by smitty @ The Good Phight on Feb 2, 2008 3:37 PM EST up reply actions  

Re: Better or worse than last year?
Smitty we are talking 2007 here son.  From Aug 29th on Santana was 1-4 4.5 ERA. Scouting reports also showed he lost about 4 MPH off of his fastball.

by Beaver Cleaver on Feb 4, 2008 6:38 PM EST reply actions  

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

Analysis and features focusing on Philadelphia Phillies baseball.

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recommended FanPosts

Band_small
Bullpenny Lane

Recent FanPosts

Small
2012 Phillies Mock Draft
31668_127968670553578_100000213381931_332614_1775181_n_small
Pay Cole Hamels! (for his bat)
Stevebrule_small
Battle Hymn of the Republic...revised
Product_1277994256f_small
The Case of Jayson Werth (and the Washington Nationals) vs. Philadelphia
Small
Prospect Rosterbation: Clearwater 10, Brevard County 3
Phanatic_for_profile_small
Something to Ponder
Small
The Phillies Have Gamed Dom Brown's Service Clock - And No One Noticed
Small
Offensive Woes
Phillies1980logo_small
Phillies Minor League Assignments

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >

Next Game

Philadelphia Phillies
@ Chicago Cubs

Thursday, May 17, 2012, 8:05 PM EDT
Wrigley Field

Roy Halladay vs Chris Volstad

Mostly clear. Winds blowing from right to left field at 5-10 m.p.h. Game time temperature around 65.

Complete Coverage >

Yahoo_full_count

Blog Lords

Wholecamels_small WholeCamels

Boys_small jonk

Tecumseh_phillies_small FuquaManuel

Dsc04697_small David S. Cohen

Meltingface_small dajafi

Phillyfriar__new2__small PhillyFriar

Associate Blog Lords

Bugs_small taco pal

Greg_luzinski_small Wet Luzinski

-20100715-hamels_avatar_for_rtp_small RememberthePhitans

Phillies1980logo_small schmenkman

Lion_small philsandthrills

Madmen_icon_small lizroscher

Contributors

Ryanred_small petzrawr

Werein_small Phrozen

Trader-joes_small Joecatz

Small Dash Treyhorn

Blogger Emeritus

Colevatar_small Matt Swartz