Cholly, it's time to come out firin'!

by jonk on Oct 13, 2008 9:47 AM EDT Comment 12 comments

Time to take a look at what we have on the bench and put the players in the best position to win. That means using the lefty lineup today. Not so much because Lowe is worse against lefties (he is pretty tough on both) but because our lefties are much better against righties than our righties are. Also, with this lineup, you would NEED to split Howard and Utley.

Rollins
Utley
Stairs/Jenkins
Howard
Burrell
Victorino
Dobbs
Ruiz
Blanton

I'd actually consider starting Jenkins as I don't know if there is really that much of a difference between him and Stairs against righties and we ARE playing him 7 mil or whatever for next year as well. Give him a shot here, I don't think he is as toast as we all make him out to be. I'd even consider starting both Stairs and Jenkins, but I think Burrell is probably better against Lowe than either of them.

This is a very important game (wish Myers was starting it, but that's an argument for a different day), and we have to put our players in the best position to win.

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With the way Victorino is hitting (last night excluded) I would not hestitate to bat him 3rd between Utley and Howard. And maybe having a basestealing threat on base would get Howard some fastballs to hit.

by WholeCamels on Oct 13, 2008 9:52 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I would do. Cholly won’t.

by FuquaManuel on Oct 13, 2008 11:28 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

This sounds like an Andy Reid PC… although I do agree

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by foos05 on Oct 13, 2008 11:59 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Maybe it’s my irrational dislike of the guy, but I simply don’t want to see Jenkins in any kind of big spot for the Phillies this month. Batting third in a huge game would qualify.

Even if you’re more positive about him than I am (and how couldn’t you be?), it’s been about two months since he had anything like regular playing time. Stairs doesn’t thrill me either, and I certainly wouldn’t hit him third, but if you put him in the 7 hole that at least gives you a power threat down in the lineup.

by dajafi on Oct 13, 2008 12:31 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Stacking the deck

I’d be mighty tempted to get some additional left handed bats in the line up too. Starting Dobbs seems like a no brainer. Putting in Jenkins seems a lot more iffy though. He was never good at any point during the season, and as someone else pointed out, between the injury and riding the pine he’s just rusty as hell right now. Stairs in the outfield scares me — especially if Burrell is also starting (and I think he should, because he usually works the count even if he’s not hitting). It’s exactly like the bold, intuitive, make you scratch your head move that Charlie pulls off from time to time, sometimes with spectacular results.

Jenkins just mystifies me. For years he was thorn in my side in fantasy leagues. I always swore he was not that good, and every the team that had would beat me, largely on the strength of his consistent contribution. Then we get him, and he becomes what I always claimed he was — a bum who could be pitched to. For better or for Werth, I’d leave Werth out there.

by MJW on Oct 13, 2008 2:14 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Why isn't Hamels going on three days rest?

I know he’s not exactly a model of durability, but as the rotation is set now, Moyer would be pitching a potential Game 7. If not him, then Blanton. Neither of those options are particularly appealing, and with the extra off day on Thursday, if Hamels pitched tonight, he could go in Game 7 on regular rest.

I’m just on the bandwagon here, but it’s pretty clear to me that Moyer shouldn’t be pitching again in this series. He did not pitch well against the Brewers, and against a patient, talented offense, he needs to get lucky to avoid getting lit up like a Christmas tree. Manuel knows his staff better than I do, but it looks like the Phillies better wrap this up in five or six, or they’re in real trouble for Game 7, as they’d be facing Lowe on regular rest.

by costenh on Oct 13, 2008 2:44 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Blanton looked good last outing… if we use Hamels here, it’s kind of a tossup between him and Lowe… However, if Blanton pitches like he did last outing and we squeak one out tonight… the next matchup of Hamels/Billingsley looks alot nicer for us to clinch…

plus Hamels has never pitched on 3 days rest… not a good time to try that experiment

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by foos05 on Oct 13, 2008 3:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hamels

Hamels has been reluctant to take the ball on short rest (for example he didn’t want to pitch in the doubleheader against the Mets, which at the time looked like a huge game, even though it was on regular rest). In his defense he’s looked much better when he’s gotten extra rest. So I’m ok with taking my chances with Blanton tonight, and then having Hamels in his comfort zone on Wednesday followed by Myers on Friday. If the series goes seven, Moyer has bounced back from bad starts before and he has a good track record in big games. Plus if he faltered early, we’d have Blanton and the whole bullpen available, so Charlie could have him on a very short leash if need be. I’m a little peeved that the ridiculous made for tv schedule with an unnecessary day off in LA helps the Dodgers with their 3 man rotation.

by MJW on Oct 13, 2008 3:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Moyer has bounced back from bad starts and he has also had performances like last nights which came after a bad start. The “Moyer does well in big games” argument doesn’t hold up either when you consider that in his 2 biggest starts of the year (last night and the Milwaukee start) he was god awful.

Using him in a game 7 with the WS on the line would be suicidal and I would take my chances with Blanton instead. We can’t afford to have Moyer put us in a 5 or 6 run hole after 2 innings again.

by FuquaManuel on Oct 13, 2008 4:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hamels already has pitched about 235 innings this year, far more than he’s ever thrown before. They’re concerned both for his health and for an exhaustion-related dropoff. And as the other commenters have noted, he’s never done it before. Mature as he is, and huge as he’s been through the playoffs thus far, that’s just too many variables to worry about.

Besides, it would be a panic move. Very few people expected us to win that game last night: the Dodgers always hit Moyer, we’re helpless against Kuroda, and LA was desperate. Tonight’s matchup is better, and even if we lose it, we’ve got our ace on five days rest going against Billingsley, whom we hit hard last time, in the all-important Game Five.

(I will add, though, that I expect Billingsley to pitch an outstanding game on Wednesday. Just a hunch.)

by dajafi on Oct 13, 2008 5:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

All fair points.

In spite of his never having done it before, the it’s tough for the stakes to be higher than they are now, and where you see a “panic move”, I see opportunity.

Before the series started, I’d have asked Hamels to pitch Game 4 on three days rest, with the real goal having him available to start Game 7 (and three games in the series), if necessary, and the side benefit of getting Moyer out of the rotation. As a Giants fan who had to listen to people talk about what a great big game pitcher Livan Hernandez was, I’m a little leary when the same argument is made for Moyer, who is about as effective these days as Livan. (As an aside, no one was more responsible for the Giants losing the 2002 World Series than Livan Hernandez. He got hammered in both Game 3 and Game 7. The only positive from that is that we never had to hear about what a great big game pitcher he is anymore.)

I agree with Fuqua. The Phillies can’t afford to fall into another hole like that. I wish the Phils had the starting pitching depth so Hamels wouldn’t have to go on short rest to get Moyer out of the rotation, but they don’t. Doing whatever your team needs is what aces do.

by costenh on Oct 13, 2008 5:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs