Two Theories of the ALCS Endgame
by dajafi on Oct 17, 2008 4:37 PM EDT
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PrintProbably like others here and elsewhere, I was half-watching last night's Game Five unfold between the Rays and Red Sox and starting to think ahead to next week's Fall Classic: the FOX nightmare of the storyline-resistant Phillies and the relatively small-market Rays. Then, of course, all hell broke loose: seven runs down and seven outs from elimination, Boston erupted for eight runs and won on a walkoff hit by notorious never-former-Phil J.D. Drew. The series now returns to Tampa, where the Red Sox will attempt to complete their second straight pennant comeback after trailing three games to one.
Granting that the Phillies, with a worse regular season record and without home-field advantage since the AL won the all-star game, will be underdogs either way, what should we be hoping to see this weekend?
Two thoughts come to mind. One: after last night, I want no part of the Red Sox. Granted that Tampa's relievers probably aren't at the level of Ryan Madson or Brad Lidge, and that Phils might derive some relative advantage by virtue of being a somewhat more experienced team--if you think that sort of thing matters, and I'm not convinced it doesn't at this stage--than the Rays... Boston's winning a game like that just scares the hell out of me. If they reach the World Series, they'll be riding an unbelievable wave of momentum and feeling like they just beat a far superior team to the one they'll face. And they'll have the incentive of seeking a second straight championship and the opportunity to cement themselves as the first true dynasty of the 21st century.
Two: I could see this series turning out along the lines of the 2003 ALCS, when the Yankees outlasted the Red Sox in seven games. That one is remembered mostly for Pedro's running out of gas in Game Seven and Aaron Boone one-upping Bucky Dent with a series-winning walkoff homer in the bottom of the 11th. But the victory proved to a Pyrrhic one: the Yankees were entirely out of gas by the time they got to the World Series and lost to a probably inferior Marlins team. It took everything they had to beat the Red Sox; after that, they were done. I could see either AL pennant winner expending themselves in this round. (Note: this was not a problem for the 2006 Cardinals or last year's Red Sox. I can dismiss the 2007 Sox based on their annihilation of Cleveland in those final three games; I have no answer for the '06 Redbirds, who outlasted the Mets in a superb NLCS.)
In either event, at this point I think we should hope for a seven-gamer simply to avoid seeing the AL pennant winner's ace in Game One. If it's Boston, they'd start with Daisuke Matsuzaka, who pitched last night (and was smacked around) since Josh Beckett and Jon Lester are going this weekend. If it's Tampa and they win on Saturday, I suspect they would come back with Scott Kazmir--but he doesn't worry me as much as James Shields does. The best case scenario, though, is a Rays win in seven--along the lines of the 2003 Yankees--with Kazmir playing the role of Mike Mussina, who extended himself to keep the Yanks close in Game Seven after Roger Clemens was bombed early.
So to both AL East titans: let's leave it all out on the field this weekend!
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With lots of injuries, of course
Not that I’d wish harm on any player, but a few crippling broken fingernails or throwing-hand blisters or flu-like symptoms or sudden waves of uncontrollable nausea would be nice.
that's the spirit
Come on now – Everybody! “When I was young, I fell in love, I asked my sweetheart what lies ahead…”
In case you all didn’t know, Michael WIlbon is an idiot.
On PTI right now he is actually deriding Joe Maddon for lifting Scott Kazmir last night after 6 innings and 111 pitches. Putting aside the fact that he was already at 111 FREAKING PITCHES and taking full advantage of hindsight, given the outcome of the game and the complete failure of the Rays bullpen to get 8 outs, it is easy to say you would have kept trotting Kazmir out there for “as long as it took” (as Wilbon suggested). But really, let’s think about this. The Rays were up 7-0 and seemed to be cruising. Balfour has been lights out all season. There was no rational reason to assume that what happened would happen during the game when Maddon made the decision not to put unnecessary stress on Kazmir’s arm. Sure, Maddon might have made some questionable decisions, but lifting Kazmir was definitely not one of them.
I actually like Wilbon 75% of the time ...
but I saw that too and was just like … c’mon Mike don’t be that guy. If Maddon had left Kazmir in and he was the one who gave up those runs in the 7th it would have been “Maddon should have taken Kazmir out”. At that point it didn’t really matter who the Rays had on the mound Boston just got hot, and they have proven that with their backs against the wall they can perform in October.
"I need to do a better job of putting players in the right position to perennially come up short of expectations"
Wilbon isn't an idiot
But he doesn’t know much about baseball. I don’t think he really pretends to either. He makes fun of his Cub Fandom and stuff but he pretty much admits he doesn’t know much about baseball. I like PTI but not for the great insight into sports. I just think Wibon and Tony K are funny.
What if James Shields
is 2005 Roy Oswalt instead?
after the devastating heartbreaking they'll never recover loss,
he goes out and shuts ’em down for 8 innings and pitches his team into the WS?
I had a question I waanted to ask before last nights game, but instead I was swamped at work and forgot, so I wanted to ask it here…
Do you prefer your team get a long rest before the next series (say a week) or do you worry about the ‘rust factor’…not playing a game for an entire week.
by jemagee on Oct 17, 2008 10:32 PM EDT reply actions
hello!
red sox fan here…but if we don’t make it past saturday, i’ll be rooting for you guys and the “flyin’ hawaiian” who hails from my home state. :) way to shut down the dodgers…
Hello
I’m on your bandwagon.
I love Victorino/Rollins/Utley/Howard
and GOOOOOOOOO Jamie Moyer!!!!!
Cuba Si! Yanqi No!
Mariner fan in Exile.
Proudly offending Ma'am since 10-18
Oakland A's fan here
I’ve been rooting for the Phillies during this postseason.
I agree with you, if the Red Sox pull this thing off they will likely beat the Phillies as well. The Rays gave them life in Game 5. I really hope that Shields shuts them down and the Rays take it tonight…but if they don’t i don’t like their chances against Boston in Game 7.
TBS coverage has already sucked, but to have ‘technical difficulties’ and not even be airing such a crucial game yet – even though it’s being played – it’s horrible – take it away take it away from TBS
by jemagee on Oct 18, 2008 8:27 PM EDT reply actions
Game Seven forthcoming
Both the nightmare scenario (Boston coming back from the brink to beat Tampa and take a shot at dynastic immortality) and the likely best-case (Rays survive a near-death experience and perhaps “win their World Series”) are now in play.
But I think the way to bet after tonight—when the Rays clearly tightened up after they fell behind 4-2 in the sixth—is that we’ll be seeing the Red Sox next week. Can’t say I’m very optimistic about how that would turn out.
Yuck. I can’t help but feel for the Rays’ fans. If they don’t make it after being within 8 outs and up 7 runs…man…that hurts. I know I would be permanently traumatized by that kind of thing. But barring a slew of injuries next season or year long slumps from half of their lineup, I think this team will be making several more ALCS appearances in years to come. The core of young talent they have grown is not unlike that of the Phillies, and they have deeper pitching to boot. I heard somewhere that they have as many as 9 (!) starting pitchers in the minors that are major league ready (and that stud-beast-thing David Price).
I am pretty worried about facing the Sox – not because I think they are a better team, but, like you say, because I don’t want these Phillies to become the Robespierre to their reign of terror.
So I say, strictly in the best interests of our beloved Phillies: tomorrow, go Rays.
Yeah, Rays system is incredible
Not just pitching wise, but they even have 3-4 more positional studs rising in the ranks. Scary.
I don’t think that analogy works. Manny Ramirez could have been a Robespierre parallel of sorts if the Dodgers had made it, but not the Phillies.
I must admit that I’m in the ‘just happy to be here’ camp and that the phils were going to be the underdog against either team. If the longer series means rotations are a bit off and pitchers are a bit over used, then so much the better.
The red sox aren’t 100% healthy, Ortiz wrist might still be bothering him, Lowell is questionable, Beckett is sitll recovering Papelbon getting used a lot, plus just a lot of games over the past 2 seasons for the sox…i actully think the phils have a better chance against the sox than the rays…i don’t buy into the ‘youth’ BS, and if they actually get to the series, the Rays are ‘battle tested’ already.
by jemagee on Oct 19, 2008 2:59 PM EDT reply actions
Even after tonight’s game, the winner still get a few days off. These series have so many factors effecting the outcome, I’m not sure getting extra days off is an advantage or a disadvantage. Sometimes teams lose their edge after a long break but who knows if that wouldn’t have happened anyway (Colorado last season).
The Phils are something like 20-5 in thier last 25 games. I dont’ think there’s any way to really tell if getting 7 days off hurts them. It seems like it makes sense but teams have won series after long breaks in the past.
nightmare scenario
This is absolutely the oddest feeling after years of always expecting the worst, but I feel the Phils will prevail regardless of who wins game 7 tonight. I recognize that to Phillies fans like myself ,this positive outlook is akin to jinxing them – we all feel so psychologically tuned in as to presume our attitude actually has an effect on the outcome. Call it chemistry, call it a sense that these guys know they need to take care of business one game at a time, call it good karma for Philadelphia in general, call it win one for Choilly’s Mom, but I think it will be Phillies over either Red Sox or Tampa Bat in 6 at either at Fenway or the Trop on October 29. If I am wrong I will of course have to kill myself (at least figuratively)
I have great sympathy for your suffering
and admire your confidence.
Cuba Si! Yanqi No!
Mariner fan in Exile.
Proudly offending Ma'am since 10-18
Yes, cause the AL teams lack all those intangibles (aside from Charlie’s mom) and got this far on dumb luck, looking far ahead, selfishness and worrying about everyone else’s job instead of their own…right?
by jemagee on Oct 19, 2008 6:29 PM EDT reply actions
NO
Don’t see how you read any of that into my post (dumb luck, looking far ahead, selfishness, job worries, etc) – everyone has intangibles. I was rather explicit that it was just a good feeling which is rare to me after all these years of being a Phillies fan. Having read many of your posts, however, it’s clear that you like to be right. So good luck in life with such certainty – it probably won’t serve you well. But we obviously have at least a passion for Phillies in common.
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