Presidential Politics and the World Series

by David S. Cohen on Oct 20, 2008 11:38 AM EDT Comment 14 comments

Phillies v. Rays. Philadelphia v. Tampa Bay. Pennsylvania v. Florida. At some point, in this year, at this point in time, with these two states, is there any doubt that the Presidential contenders are going to weigh in on the World Series? And if they do, are they likely to choose sides?

I'm betting that both candidates walk a fine line between appearing neutral and supporting the Rays. They'll say that both teams are great and they don't have a hometown rooting interest. But, they'll make it clear that they support the Rays over the Phillies.

Why? Simple polling data. Going into the election, both Pennsylvania and Florida were seen as key battleground states. However, as November 4 approaches, Pennsylvania has decidedly lost that status (even if the national media and the candidates pretend otherwise). As of today, Real Clear Politics, which averages the polls for the individual states, has Obama +13.2% in Pennsylvania. PECOTA-inventor and now polling genius Nate Silver has Obama's chances of winning Pennsylvania at 98%, predicting a 9.8% margin of victory.

Florida, on the other hand, is closer. Even though it has voted for the Democrat only once in the last 7 presidential elections, the current polls average to +3.2% for Obama. That's much closer than Pennsylvania. According to Silver, in Florida, Obama has a 77% chance of winning, with a predicted margin of victory of 3.1%.

With those numbers, it's safe to say that Florida, although currently leaning toward Obama, has retained its battleground status much more than Pennsylvania has. Moreover, the Philadelphia region borders three very safe Democratic states -- New Jersey, Maryland, and Delaware. The closest state to the Tampa region is Georgia, which is currently polling for McCain at an average of 6.8%, but is a state that could conceivably be much closer on election day.

Obama and McCain undoubtedly know all of this and will adjust their publicly-stated rooting preferences accordingly. Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, and the Phillies be damned. The presidential candidates are now Rays fans.

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Pretty sure Obama said that he’s pulling for the Phils at a recent PA campaign stop. He’s a White Sox fan, and they’re gone; who knows, maybe since the Rays eliminated them he has a revenge thing going.

It wouldn’t be totally unprecedented, of course, if he flip-flopped on this vital question.

As for McCain, I know he’s a D’backs fan (though i wonder how much loyalty one can have to a “home team” that came into existence so relatively late in one’s life). If he’s said anything in public about the playoffs, I missed it.

We do know Sarah Palin owns, or at least was lent, a Phillies jacket. Since I believe she cursed the Flyers, though, I hope she’s parted with it.

by dajafi on Oct 20, 2008 11:53 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Come on, you know as well as I do that past statements about regional loyalties are always trumped by polling numbers.

by David S. Cohen on Oct 20, 2008 12:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

actually...

in the much quoted rally when Obama said he was supporting the Phillies in the WS, he attributed his choice to his campaign David Plouffe, a Delawarian who is supposedly a dedicated Phils fan. (cf. http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/10/09/obama-picks-the-phillies/, http://www.delawareonline.com/blogs/2008/09/plouffes-prognostications.html)

by perfectdepth on Oct 20, 2008 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BVyrofyRHpw

by taco pal on Oct 20, 2008 12:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

That was before Florida was the opponent!

by David S. Cohen on Oct 20, 2008 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Heh. Oh, so cynical.

by taco pal on Oct 20, 2008 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

At least we’ll be spared the ghoulish sight of John Kerry woodenly placing that immaculate Red Sox hat on his head and grinning. That rivaled Dukakis-in-the-tank, in my opinion.

by WholeCamels on Oct 20, 2008 12:06 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Every time Ortiz came up in the ALCS, I did my Kerry impression announcing “the great Red Sox slugger, David OrtEZ…”

Then this would segue into a mention of “historic Lambert Field in Wisconsin,” and my wife would ask for swiss cheese on her cheesesteak.

Really not a good pandering candidate, was Kerry.

by dajafi on Oct 20, 2008 12:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The worst was when Gray Davis showed up at the Angels-Giants World Series games wearing regular business casual attire so he wouldn’t be perceived as choosing sides, thereby guaranteeing that he’d be scorned by both ends of the state.

by taco pal on Oct 20, 2008 12:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

im more concerned with Obama with this. if he does indeed flip to the Rays, he better not say anything bad about the Phillies. Losing Philadelphia could lose the state for him.
Front-running politicans?! Can’t be no punk!

by pjnc2003 on Oct 20, 2008 12:47 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

It really shouldn’t be that hard for Obama to square the circle. “I said I was rooting for the Phillies and I’m sticking by that. But I certainly respect what the Rays have done this season, they’ve been a truly inspiring story all year long and I will be happy for them and their fans if they’re able to win.”

Is Biden a Phillies fan? He may live in Delaware now, but he grew up in Scranton and from what I’ve heard, Scrantonians tend to support the Yankees, particularly if you didn’t live there during the era when the Phillies had the Red Barons.

As for Palin: Phillies should have Tina Fey throw out the first ball. That would be funny. And she’s a genuine Phillies fan. I’ve read that the first time she ever wanted to go into show business was when her dad took her to a Phillies game and she saw the ballgirls getting cheered.

by taco pal on Oct 20, 2008 1:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

taco… I live in Scranton… Although there are Yankees and Mets fans around, it’s largely dominated by Phillies supporters… Plus the Barons being here for quite some time rallied a new generation to Phillies fandom

"When you get that nice celebration coming into the dugout and you're getting your ass hammered by guys - there's no better feeling than to have that done." - Matt Stairs 10/13/08

Gold... Pure Gold...

by foos05 on Oct 20, 2008 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I found this in the Huffington Post, Obama at a rally in Florida, being embraced by the Rays players themselves.

Obama was introduced by half a dozen baseball players from the Tampa Bay Rays, who dethroned the defending champion Boston Red Sox Sunday night to clinch the American League pennant and earn a spot in the World Series.

The crowd went almost as wild for them as for Obama. “Tampa Bay! Tampa Bay!” the audience screamed as the players waved from the stage at Legend’s Field, the spring training home of the New York Yankees.

Smiling and shaking his head in amazement, Obama exchanged high-fives and bear hugs with the ebullient players.

“When you see a (Chicago) White Sox fan showing some love to the Rays, and the Rays showing some love back, you know we’re on to something right here,” said the Illinois senator.

Recipient of the 2008 "The Iron Man" award from scottnak of Halos Heaven!

by 44FAN on Oct 20, 2008 7:51 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs