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How Did We Get Here? Building the 2008 Phillies

I won't pretend this isn't fairly well-trod ground, with ESPN having taken a shot at it over the weekend as well as the Philly papers last week. But Pat Gillick himself helped raise the subject in his classy praise for predecessor GM Ed Wade as the Phillies celebrated their pennant win last week, and the subject is one of abiding interest to most of us here at TGP and, I think, in the wider world of Phillies phandom. So let's take a look. 

This table shows the position players on the Phils 2008 post-season roster. By a happy coincidence, it pretty much matches the full list of anyone who had a significant presence for the team during the regular season (though Chris Snelling did make the most of his four plate appearances, he's not here). Players in italics were Pat Gillick's additions. 

 

Name Phils Debut/How Acq 2008 PA Salary VORP
Chase Utley 2003 (2000 Draft, 1st) 707 $7.8m 62.2
Jimmy Rollins 2000 (1996 Draft, 2nd)*  625 $8.0m 43.5
Ryan Howard 2004 (2001 Draft, 5th) 700 $10.0m 35.3
Pat Burrell 2000 (1998 Draft, 1st) 645 $14.3m 33.6
Shane Victorino 2005 (2004 Rule 5) 627 $0.5m 33.4
Jayson Werth 2007 (free agent) 482 $1.7m 30.4
Greg Dobbs 2007 (free agent) 240 $0,4m 12.8
Chris Coste 2006 (min lg free agent) 305 $0.4m 8.1
Matt Stairs 2008 (trade) 19 $1.6m 2.2
Pedro Feliz 2008 (free agent) 463 $3.0m -0.0
So Taguchi 2008 (free agent) 103 $0.9m -4.1
Geoff Jenkins 2008 (free agent) 322 $5.0m -4.4
Eric Bruntlett 2008 (trade) 238 $0.6m -5.9
Carlos Ruiz 2006 (amateur free agent) 373 $0.4m -7.0

 

*Lee Thomas was the Phillies GM when Jimmy Rollins was drafted in 1996. 

(Salary is the player's full compensation for 2008, not the Phillies' obligation.)

Gillick's praise for Wade as having built a championship nucleus is on the money here, as the team's top four hitters by VORP were drafted while Wade was in the team's employ (recall he was Thomas's assistant GM before getting promoted), and the fifth and eighth were low-cost additions--probably Wade's biggest successes in that category, certainly on the positional side. Gillick's valuable additions were Jayson Werth and Greg Dobbs; otherwise, the guys he brought in didn't do a whole lot of good, at least before NLCS Game Four. In total, the VORP of Wade-era players (including Rollins) is 208.9; Gillick's players accounted for only 39.1. 

The balance shifts, however, when we turn to the pitchers. 

 

Star-divide

For this table, we include several pitchers not on the post-season roster but who played key roles with the 2008 Phillies: injured setup man Tom Gordon and deposed starters Adam Eaton and Kyle Kendrick. 

 

Name Phils Debut/How Acq IP Salary VORP
Cole Hamels 2006 (2002 Draft, 1st) 227.1 $0.5m 56.3
Jamie Moyer 2006 (trade) 196.1 $6,0m 40.3
Brad Lidge 2008 (trade) 69.1 $6.4m 26.7
Ryan Madson 2003 (1998 Draft, 9th) 82.2 $1.4m 23.3
Chad Durbin 2008 (free agent) 87.2 $0.9m 22.5
Brett Myers 2002 (1999 Draft, 1st) 190.0 $8.6m 19.3
J.C. Romero 2007 (free agent) 59.0 $3.3m 19.3
Clay Condrey 2006 (free agent) 69.0 $0.4m 17.6
Joe Blanton 2008 (trade) 70.2 $3.7m 9.2
J.A. Happ 2007 (2004 Draft, 3rd) 31.2 $0.4m 7.4
Scott Eyre 2008 (trade) 14.1 $3.8m 6.0
Rudy Seanez 2008 (free agent) 43.1 $0.4m 3.5
Tom Gordon 2006 (free agent) 29.2 $5.5m -0.1
Adam Eaton 2007 (free agent) 107.0 $8.0m -1.9
Kyle Kendrick 2007 (2004 Draft, 7th) 155.2 $0.4m -2.9

 

Here we see Gillick's impact is both stronger and more positive: it captures his two best trades with the Phils, for Moyer and Lidge, and his generally successful bullpen assemblage. (It also includes, um, Adam Eaton.) In total, the five pitchers who became Phillies on Wade's watch accounted for 103.3 points of VORP; the ten Gillick-era additions totaled 143.1. 

It's worth noting that this method of analysis isn't entirely satisfying, in that it doesn't at all capture the impact of Gillick's decisions on Wade's personnel. Wade plucked Victorino from the Dodgers in December 2004, but the Flyin' Hawaiian didn't get a chance to show he could handle everyday outfield duties until Gillick cleared a space for him... unfortunately, by trading Bobby Abreu for a bag of smelly rocks. Gillick also probably sped up the emergence of Cole Hamels in 2006, and certainly did the same for Kyle Kendrick a year later. (I'm sorry to bring up a painful memory, but when Wade was faced with a similar situation to what led to Kendrick's recall, he went out and signed Paul Abbott.) And while Carlos Ruiz was a Wade signing, it was Gillick who--eventually, after futzing around with the likes of Sal Fasano and Rod Barajas--for better or worse let Ruiz emerge as the team's starting catcher. 

In praising Wade last Wednesday, Gillick characterized his contribution as having"kind of filled in around what Ed had in place." That's true as far as it goes, but it's also a little deceiving. The failure of Wade's last few years on the job was the enormous dropoff between the top-line talent on hand and the feculent rot through the bottom part of the roster, where a handful of abysmally bad players undermined the efforts of the stars by just enough to miss the October fun. Gillick made more flat-out disastrous moves than did Wade: the Eaton signing, the Abreu and Freddy Garcia trades. But his dumpster-diving was fantastic: Werth, Dobbs, Romero, Durbin, Eyre, Stairs. And he and Charlie Manuel didn't stay chained to their mistakes to anywhere near the extent Wade and Bowa did: Eaton never got to kill the Phillies the way that David Bell or Tomas Perez or Jose Mesa or Rheal Cormier did in selected Wade-era seasons. 

Without the foundation built primarily by Wade and then-and-now assistant GM Mike Arbuckle, Gillick's work would not have made the difference. But with that foundation, the ability to find guys like Werth and Romero, and the willingness to admit mistakes like Eaton and Geoff Jenkins and move on, is the difference between an 86-88 win also-ran and a 92-win league, and hopefully world, champion. 

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great post. i, for one, am kind of nervous with Pat leaving… I hope the organization took notes on how he did things… maybe he will be nice enough to leave his book of “Cheap Players I’d Look At” laying around on the desk after he leaves… all in all, I’m proud to say he was part of our franchise

"When you get that nice celebration coming into the dugout and you're getting your ass hammered by guys - there's no better feeling than to have that done." - Matt Stairs 10/13/08

Gold... Pure Gold...

by foos05 on Oct 21, 2008 7:46 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

That’s it. Much as we might lionize younger baseball people like Paul DePodesta, what I think Gillick’s experience gives him is that sense of where the bargains are and how the market works.

The best point in that Stark article I linked to at the top is about Scott Eyre: you might remember that as the non-waiver deadline approached, all sorts of rumors were flying around about the Phillies trading Jason Donald for a lefty having a great year: Will Ohman, the guy from the Royals, whoever. Gillick just waited a week and then got Eyre, who had awful numbers in a tiny sample size but has been as good as anyone else available.

by dajafi on Oct 21, 2008 10:45 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

yes, i remember the debate that raged here over which lefty specialist we would go get… at first I questioned Pat’s moves like this, but they have all been fantastic…

"When you get that nice celebration coming into the dugout and you're getting your ass hammered by guys - there's no better feeling than to have that done." - Matt Stairs 10/13/08

Gold... Pure Gold...

by foos05 on Oct 21, 2008 10:48 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

sorry for the double post, but i just thought of something else. the thing that we have avoided (for the most part) under Pat’s watch is signing/trading for that big FA for the sake of doing so. keeping our core around (and happy) and adding key smaller pieces has worked out great. i would hate to see our new GM come in with the attitude of trying to make their first move a big more for the sake of doing so and having it bite us in the ass down the road (looking at you Adam Eaton).

for the most part, I hope the new GM gives Burrell a reasonable offer and retains him, keeps our starting lineup relatively the same, upgrades Jenkins, Bruntlett, and So, and then simply strengthens our starting pitching. and doing that may not really mean signing C.C., Lowe, Peavy etc. Look at Pat’s recent pitching moves… Moyer, Lohse, and Blanton as starters… Romero, Durbin, Lidge, Eyre as relief… can’t fault any of that… for God’s sake, Moyer has more wins than Josh Beckett over the past two and a half seasons… who saw that coming?

"When you get that nice celebration coming into the dugout and you're getting your ass hammered by guys - there's no better feeling than to have that done." - Matt Stairs 10/13/08

Gold... Pure Gold...

by foos05 on Oct 21, 2008 10:57 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

If we win the World Series, I’m sure that whoever the GM is will have a strong inclination toward preserving the current roster.

by taco pal on Oct 21, 2008 11:01 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

true… taco, as an aside, in one post we were talking about Yankees fans in Scranton and such. If I could find it I’d post there… but oh well. Surprisingly, there’s quite the movement of Pro-Rays sentiment in the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre area right now. I’m sure some of the readers here realize Joe Maddon is from PA (Hazleton to be exact). Well, Hazleton is right next to Wilkes-Barre. In fact, the street that Maddon grew up on is a block away from a college that I teach night class at. Literally, his house is about a 15 minute ride from the former home of the SWB Red Barons…

"When you get that nice celebration coming into the dugout and you're getting your ass hammered by guys - there's no better feeling than to have that done." - Matt Stairs 10/13/08

Gold... Pure Gold...

by foos05 on Oct 21, 2008 11:34 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Interesting. Yes I saw your other comment but forgot to respond. I’m glad Phillies fans outnumber Yankees fans at least – state solidarity and what not. Hazleton is the town with the big immigration controversy, isn’t it?

by taco pal on Oct 21, 2008 12:02 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

that would be correct sir

"When you get that nice celebration coming into the dugout and you're getting your ass hammered by guys - there's no better feeling than to have that done." - Matt Stairs 10/13/08

Gold... Pure Gold...

by foos05 on Oct 21, 2008 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

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