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World Series Preview: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Tampa Bay Rays

In probably the most unlikely World Series matchup since the double Worst to First Series in 1991, the 2008 World Series features the upstart Tampa Bay Rays, a team whose previous franchise-best win total was 70, versus the Philadelphia Phillies, whose sordid, disappointing history has been dwelled on and parsed out ad nauseum on the virtual pages of this blog.

One thing is for certain: the Phillies enter this Series as underdogs.  No, it wouldn't shock the world if they won.  But the superiority of the American League over the National League has been well-established, in the big picture and in this precise case (Phillies interleague record: 4-11).  Nonetheless, we're going to try to separate the wheat from the chaff, and look at the teams in a vacuum, away from the baggage of their own previous poor fortunes and the quality of their respective leagues.  They're going to settle this thing between the lines.

Lineup: Edge Phillies

Opponents of the Phillies have said all season that they have an American League-style lineup.  I guess now is the time to put that to the test.  This Rays team was a good but less than great offensive squad that has been raking for the entire postseason... Longoria and Upton in particular.  The Phillies, on the other hand, are 7-2 in the playoffs so far, with Ryan Howard slugging under .400.  Now would be a good time to turn it on, Ryan...

 

Bench: Edge Rays

Rocco Baldelli has been a wonderful story, the long-time Ray who is fighting a rare mitochondrial condition and came back to contribute to his team's postseason run.  In at least two of the games in this Series, the Phillies bench will take a hit, with one of its better bats, be it Dobbs, Stairs, or Coste, filling the DH role.

 

Rotation: Edge Rays

Cole Hamels is the best pitcher left, capable of beating anybody on any given day.  The Rays, however, have four starters who are probably better than the Phillies #2, Brett Myers.  Sure, Myers, Blanton, and (maybe?) Moyer are capable of throwing a couple of gems, but the Rays starting pitching, top to bottom, is just better.

 

Bullpen: Edge Phillies

Best bullpen in baseball?  You can make thar argument.  Particularly over the full season, the Phillies bullpen is clearly better than the Rays.  Joe Maddon has crafted a sabermetrician-friendly "bullpen by committee" that has been more than capable of finishing off ballgames.  And the introduction of David Price makes this much closer than it otherwise would have been.  However, the Game Five collapse against the Red Sox looms large.  Brad Lidge remains terrific, and Ryan Madson is damn near unstoppable.  Edge to the Phillies here, but it's not a huge one.

 

Coaching: Even

Charlie Manuel or Joe Maddon?  Hard to pick a favorite here.  One thing is for certain: these are both guys who diverge from the norm of the typical role of team manager.  One is cerebral and urbane, the other folksy and "countrified."  Both men, however, command the unwavering loyalty of their teams, and have created a clubhouse environment conducive to winning.  Flip a coin.

 

Miscellaneous

I am not sweating the Phillies one week layoff very much.  Cole Hamels is the great equalizer here; he pitched Game One of the NLDS on eight days rest, and threw one of the best games of his career. 

Prediction

I've picked both the NLDS and NLCS correctly so far, so let's hope my luck holds out.  I expect Cole Hamels to pitch a couple more gems, and for one of Chase Utley or Ryan Howard to get red hot and carry the offense.  It'll be a terrific, competitive, dramatic Series that might make my heart explode.

Phillies in 7.

 

 

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Great analysis!

I just have one question: Why is David Price the focal point of the World Series all of a sudden? Those tools on Baseball Tonight actually said his stuff was as good as Brad Lidge’s. This guy pitched 2 1/3 scoreless innings, and he’s the make-or-break “X-factor” of the entire Fall Classic? Please.

I hope we shell him.

by Walcott on Oct 22, 2008 11:13 AM EDT   0 recs

I wouldn’t be at all surprised if his stuff was actually better than Lidge’s. That said, I also wouldn’t be surprised if we shelled him. Heck, we shelled Tim Lincecum when he first came up too.

by taco pal on Oct 22, 2008 11:34 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Price’s stuff is absolutely electric, and his composure seems to be off the charts. It’s not at all unprecedented for a kid pitcher to come out of seemingly nowhere and dominate in the World Series—Francisco Rodriguez in ‘02, Todd Worrell in ’85. The difference might be that Maddon hasn’t anointed Price as his closer or anything like that. But I’m sure he’ll pitch in some big spots, as he probably should.

by dajafi on Oct 22, 2008 1:21 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I totally agree! I think Price with have a much smaller impact on the series than the talking heads suggest. Sure, our arguably 2 best hitters are lefties but the Phils as a team have better numbers against left-handed pitching (Werth, Burrell, right-handed Victorino and Rollins, and hell even Feliz and Ruiz get a little boost).

You can see Price’s stuff here: http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/a-sneak-peak-at-david-price/

As you can see from the article, Price’s stuff consists of a fastball with exceptional velocity for a lefty, a slider that is a work in progress for the major league level (to Baseball tonight’s dismay), and a change-up that is virtually non-existent.

Price will almost certainly be used against Utley and Howard who for some reason I’m not scared of catching up to a 97 mph fastball.

by BrandonB on Oct 22, 2008 5:43 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Madson throws 97, and they don’t rave about it.

by Walcott on Oct 22, 2008 8:04 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Phillies in 5 is my prediction. I really think it’ll probably be more likely 6 games, but I want to go with a series win at home. No more of this road series win crap!

by David S. Cohen on Oct 22, 2008 11:26 AM EDT   0 recs

It would be pretty sweet if it was Phillies in 7 with Moyer pitching a gem in Game 7 to win it for us.

by taco pal on Oct 22, 2008 11:35 AM EDT   0 recs

It would be pretty remarkable. If we had to win game 7 on the road with Jamie Moyer. Oy Vey. Start Hamels 1-4-7. Just do it.

For Who? My teammates.

For What? To Win.

How Much? Where do I sign?

by jonk on Oct 22, 2008 11:36 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Why would it be so remarkable?

by taco pal on Oct 22, 2008 11:50 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Because Jamie is possibly the second worst starting pitcher in the series and we are on their homefield. I’d consider us a pretty major underdog before that game started (unless Hamels was available for bullpen duty…even so).

For Who? My teammates.

For What? To Win.

How Much? Where do I sign?

by jonk on Oct 22, 2008 12:29 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

That may or may not be the case, but it isn’t particularly relevant where he ranks comparatively. The question is whether it’s so unlikely that he could pitch a good game on that day.

by taco pal on Oct 22, 2008 12:40 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Good enough for the Phils to win, which is less likely to happen than whomever the Rays put out for game 7.

For Who? My teammates.

For What? To Win.

How Much? Where do I sign?

by jonk on Oct 22, 2008 12:53 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

So then it would be less than 50-50 odds. Beating odds like that isn’t exactly “remarkable.” Are you saying the better starter always pitches better in every game? That obviously isn’t so.

by taco pal on Oct 22, 2008 3:40 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Sarcone's Deli Support its Fighthin' Phils !

Sarcone’s Deli supports it’s Phillies — Bring the World Championship Home !

www.sarconesdeli.com

by SarconesDeli on Oct 23, 2008 12:10 AM EDT   0 recs

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