Loading the bases in the 9th+...

by jonk on Oct 26, 2008 6:58 PM EDT Comment 8 comments

I was thinking about the decsion to load the bases to get a force play at hom because of the runner on third. The more I think about it, the more I realize just how bad of a play it was last night to do that. The common misconception is that the only "run" that matters is the run on third. I put run in ""s because it isn't that. It isn't a run. It is a baserunner and too often people misconstrue the implication.

The addage proves correct if there are 2 outs. That baserunner represents either nothing or a run. But it holds less true with 0 or 1 outs. Let's say Evan makes that play and gets the out at home. Then we still have the bases loaded with the winning run STILL on third. You were in a bad situation with a man on third and nobody out, but now you have created the situation where if you DO get him out at home, you still have to deal with a man on 3rd and 1 out. Those runners have value as long as there are still outs.

The right play there is to try to get Victorino out. The strategy to load the bases with nobody out is doomed from the beginning.

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I’m not so sure. By loading the bases, you’re creating a force at home instead of a “play at the plate.” so, heaven forbid, had ruiz hit a dribbler up to the pitcher or something, he could have thrown home, and then the catcher to first for a double play. that makes second and third, two outs. I think they were really hoping for the force out at home, is what I mean.

by char6587 on Oct 26, 2008 7:16 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I know what they were going for, but it is very short sighted. It definitely helps to get 1 out. But it hurts them overall to get out of the inning.

For Who? My teammates.

For What? To Win.

How Much? Where do I sign?

by jonk on Oct 26, 2008 7:21 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Win Expectancy says you're right

.870 for just third base occupied, .894 for bases loaded.

I’m a bit surprised, but what’s more surprising for me is that even if there are two outs, loading the bases still improves the Phils chances of winning, .661 to .646.

by phatj on Oct 26, 2008 8:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I just read a thread on Baseball Think Factory that pointed out what should have been obvious — the reason why loading the bases in either situation (none out or two out) is bad is that it makes allowing a walk absolutely not acceptable. This changes the pitcher’s approach to one where he’s throwing more strikes, and that means more hittable pitches.

by phatj on Oct 26, 2008 9:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I definitly agree. But I think that when the guy on third represents an out that is not the 3rd out (which is really the entire point of you loading the bases), then the other runners do have some value.

For Who? My teammates.

For What? To Win.

How Much? Where do I sign?

by jonk on Oct 27, 2008 8:53 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I probably wouldn’t walk the bases loaded myself, but I think you’re pretty much screwed either way. In response to this:

Let’s say Evan makes that play and gets the out at home. Then we still have the bases loaded with the winning run STILL on third.

…one thing to keep in mind is that if you don’t have the bases loaded, then there doesn’t have to be a play at the plate. So if you happen to get a hard grounder straight to an infielder, you’re still going to have a man on third base after the play is over, no matter what.

by taco pal on Oct 27, 2008 11:22 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs