There’s a few models of clutch hitting that I could construct. One is that there is an adrenaline rush that makes players play better. Another is that certain players “choke”. Another is that players are not playing to their full ability until it’s a more important situation. Yet another is comparative advantages for other reasons— more on that one in a bit.

My thoughts on each in order:

1) Adrenaline— I have a hard time believing that adrenaline makes one a better baseball player. This should be easily measurable. Do sprinters unintentionally run faster in different races? If not, I would rule out this model.

2) Choking— Every major league player has something in common— they were all able to make the major leagues. Each and everyone was visited by a scout with his whole life on the line. They each had an opportunity to not be a truck driver or whatever else they were going to do with their lives, and each of them came through during the biggest test of nerves. I don’t doubt that many people’s physical abilities would diminish when the game was on the line. I think mine would. But I also think I’d have choked when more was on the line— when I could potentially ruin my opportunity to be a professional player completely relied on performing well in front of a scout— and not when it’s going to ruin the day of a bunch of fat strangers and my pockets are already filled.

3) Less exertion in low leverage situations— In general, I would assume that if any baseball player played at less than 100, they would be replaced by someone who would play at 100. It only makes sense, as long as you assume that there is someone who is equally as good or nearly as good.

However, sometimes there isn’t. If Manny Ramirez decided to intentionally strike out once every fifty plate appearances, he would still be markedly above replacmenet level and still would be valuable.

So if there is clutch in the sense that there is relatively lower exertion in low leverage situations, it would be by star players, or at least above average players. If I ever study clutch playing, I would redo the old analysis only for elite players and check the variance in relative performance in clutch situations.

4) Comparative advantage in other reasons— Ryan Howard hit over .400 on balls in play with runners on second base this year. That’s not random— if you watch the way they defend against him with no one on base, the SS typically plays a deep 2B, and the 2B typically plays shallow RF. By putting a runner on second base, theycannot do that. Hence, Ryan Howard will persistently overperform with RISP— that’s “clutch” by construction and not by voodoo. Probably, other players probably have similar characteristics that can help or hurt. A tendency to hit groundballs up the middle might be disadvantageous in double play situations. So that tendency may make you a good singles hitter, but less likely to get singles with runners on first base. That’s “unclutch” by construction and not by voodoo.