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Deep Thoughts, With Eduardo Perez

Promoted from the FanPosts.  Frankly I relish being the "underdog" here (as much as a 92 win team can be an underdog to an 84 game winner). -- WholeCamels

 

So did anyone else get a chance to hear Eduardo Perez of ESPN Baseball Tonight share his brilliant insights on why the Dodgers are sure to beat our Phils in this upcoming series?  If not, here's a brief transcript.

RAVECH:  Is this gonna be a long one?  Should it be a long one if it's played by both teams to their abilities?

PEREZ:  I think it's gonna be a six-game series.  You look at what the Dodgers have - they have an identity now.  They can go into a series now and know exactly what their lineup's gonna be.  They don't have to be going into the clubhouse looking at that lineup card: "Am I playing or am I not?"  That's something the Phillies are still trying to figure out.  Pedro Feliz doesn't know if he's gonna be in there on a daily basis.  We saw Burrell at the end - at the last game of the series - they didn't know if he was going to be hitting fifth or sixth.  The identity factor is gonna be key.  Players know when they go to sleep that they're gonna be in there the next day.

I don't know about you but that sure has me convinced. All hope is lost!

FWIW, Krukker also chose the Dodgers, but said that if the Phillies bats start performing, then the series will go seven and be a toss-up. According to Kruk, the Phillies' offense isn't performing well enough now because all it's doing is hitting home runs. Over on TBS, Curtis Granderson thinks the Dodgers have a clear edge. Eckersley thought it was a close call but also went with the Dodgers. I think Ripken waffled but I don't have a clear recollection of what he said.

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ugh

“Team identity” will decide the series.

When there are clear, articulable reasons for favoring one team, just say it… “I like the Dodgers’ power pitchers,” “They’re rolling right now, just beat the Cubs,” etc.

Instead you just sound like you’re favoring one outcome and finding ex post reasoning to justify your decision.

FAIL!

by WholeCamels on Oct 6, 2008 11:58 AM EDT   0 recs

Eduardo Perez is a disgrace to Baseball Tonight, which is saying something because the baseball analysis provided there is often borderline criminal. Perez makes Eric “EY” Young and Kruk look like geniuses.

Steve Jeltz
.210/.308/.268
"If you condensed everything I ever did in my career into one game, it looks decent"

by Steve Jeltz on Oct 6, 2008 12:10 PM EDT   1 recs

The Dodgers got Manny late and they got Furcal back very late in the season.

The phils swept the dodgers in philly (with manny, sans Furcal I believe) the phils got swept in LA (I don’t know who they did or didn’t have)

It’ll come down to the pitching I believe, If Myers pitches like Myers can and BLanton pitches over his head like he did yesterday I really like the phils chances.

The bats of Utley and Howard MUST awaken from their slumbers as well.

And if the starting 3rd baseman and catcher could learn how to take major league at bats by thursday that would be awesome

by jemagee on Oct 6, 2008 12:30 PM EDT   0 recs

The Dodgers look like the slightly better team on paper, though it’s close across the board.

Their lineup rates a tiny edge over the Phillies, mostly by virtue of the yawning gap between Martin and Ruiz. At every other position it’s close to a tossup one way or the other; were Utley fully healthy, I’d take him in a big way over DeWitt, but as is, I’d call it only a slight edge. Rollins/Furcal, Kemp/Victorino, Howard/Loney, Ramirez/Burrell… all pretty close.

In terms of bench, the Dodgers probably have a bigger advantage—certainly they’ve got more money sitting idly, but even if you’re talking marginally useful, Pierre >>> Taguchi, Nomar >>> Bruntlett, etc.

The Phils’ rotation probably has a higher ceiling: if Hamels and Myers are at their very best, I like them better than Lowe and Billingsley. Moyer and Kuroda is more or less a wash, and right now I take Blanton over Kershaw or Maddux.

I like the Dodgers’ bullpen a bit better than ours, solely because of Broxton: when that guy’s on, it’s almost inconceivable that he allows anything.

Home field helps us a bit.

If I had to make a prediction right now, I’d say, without a ton of confidence, Phils in 7.

by dajafi on Oct 6, 2008 1:04 PM EDT   0 recs

Woo hoo, front page! Finally hit the big time.

All I have to say is that all y’all need to stop indulging your ridiculous fantasies. Thanks to Eduardo, I’ve seen the light – what chance do the Phillies have to even keep it close if Pedro Feliz has to go to bed every night feeling pangs of uncertainty?

by taco pal on Oct 6, 2008 2:03 PM EDT   0 recs

He probably calls one of the night security guards every hour on the hour to see if Cholly posted the lineup in the clubhouse yet… I mean it must be strange having to deal with this pressure now that we’ve reached the post season; having started all 162 regular season games and all…

Kiffin/Linehan '09!
Super Bowl or Bust!

*weaps softly*

by foos05 on Oct 6, 2008 2:39 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I do go to bed with said pangs of uncertainty hoping they don’t start Ruiz. I guess I should just get used to it? Seriously: did Coste die?

by Putsy Caballero. on Oct 6, 2008 2:53 PM EDT   0 recs

Just got to hear Charley Steiner and some other boob on XM 175 talking about how Red Sox / Dodgers is the matchup “everyone really wants to see.” I guess with Steiner it makes sense (Dodgers guy).

I really, really want to see them get their Cheerios peed into.

by WholeCamels on Oct 6, 2008 3:03 PM EDT   0 recs

Phils-Rays baby!

by dajafi on Oct 6, 2008 3:46 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

So annoying. I don’t mind third parties having their own preferences on who they’d like to see, of course. But to pick those two particular teams just because of their stupid hyped-up big media-generated storyline, and then to put the sentiment the way Steiner does, just has such a disgusting “all the kool kids are doing it” vibe.

by taco pal on Oct 6, 2008 3:47 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

If Dodgers-Red Sox is what they want, then Phillies-Rays is what I hope they get.

by FuquaManuel on Oct 6, 2008 3:47 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

More proving my thesis

These commentators just have to come up with ridiculous theories so they can show you that you know nothing and they know everything. Like Kruk saying last week that the left side of the infield will determine the outcome of the Phillies/Brewers series – it’s all crap. If they said “more runs and better pitching will determine the outcome,” they’d be right. But, they’d prove they know nothing more than we do (which is also right).

by David S. Cohen on Oct 6, 2008 4:07 PM EDT   1 recs

Matchups

LF: Ramirez vs Burrell?
Ramirez. They’re both marginal fielders. Ramirez hits for average and is faster than a one legged rhinoceros. I like Pat. Ramirez is better.

CF: Kemp vs Victorino?
Even. Dead Even.

RF: Werth vs Ethier?
Ethier hits for better Avg and doesn’t K as much. Werth more of a threat on the bases.
Slight Edge to Dodgers.

3B: Feliz vs Blake?
Blake isn’t that great a hitter either.
Slight Edge to Phillies based on Pete’s D.

SS: Rollins vs Furcal?
Hasn’t been a great year for Rollins, but he seems to be heating up.
I’ll take Rollins. Plus Furcal might be 40 years old.

2B: Utley vs DeWitt?
Utley. Next?

1B: Howard vs Loney?
Gotta take Howard too. Not really close.

C: Ruiz vs Martin?
Martin. Not even close.

SP: Hamels/Myers/Moyer/Blanton vs Lowe/Billingsley/Kuroda/Maddux
Phils starters here too. Not a single lefty in the mix for the Dodgers. That’s huge.

RP: Durbin/Madson/Eyre/Romero vs Beimel/Broxton/McDonald?
While the Phils pen has been awesome this year, the Dodgers is better.

CP: Lidge vs Saito?
Lidge.

Bench: Dobbs/Stairs/Jenkins/Bruntlett/Taguchi/Coste vs Ardoin/Berroa/Nomar/Kent/Ozuna/Pierre
Pretty close. Phils have better bats, but the good ones are all lefties and Coste is in the doghouse apparently.

When I started this…I figured I’d give the edge to the Dodgers, but didn’t do so.
Dodgers: C, LF, RF, RP
Phils: 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, SP, CP
Even: CF, Bench

Phils in 6 or 7.

by Bilzo on Oct 6, 2008 4:37 PM EDT   0 recs

Was just thinking about the Dodgers rotation. Don’t have any lefties in the rotation, and only have 2 lefties (Beimel and Kershaw) in the pen. Against righty-dominated pitching, if Ryan and Chase can wake up that’s going to be one huge advantage to the Phillies.

I’m saying Dodgers in 6, but that’s only because I’ve been hurt so many times that I have no confidence.

by wildcatlh on Oct 6, 2008 5:22 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I don’t really like this kind of analysis. doesn’t really measure the margin by which guys are better than other guys.

I do like that none of the top 3 guys for the dodgers are lefties, though. I think that might suggest that they’ll throw kershaw out for the 4th game.

by char6587 on Oct 6, 2008 5:54 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Kershaw or Maddux?

That really is fascinating. Too-young lefty with amazing stuff and no playoff pedigree vs. too-old righty with mediocre stuff (now), who might be the first unanimous Hall of Fame selection. Add in that the opposing lineup is more vulnerable to lefty pitchers… but the manager might be the ultimate Veterans Guy. Maybe it will depend on what happens in the first three games… but even there, I don’t know exactly how, other than a suspicion that if the Dodgers won the first three, Torre would want Maddux to try and finish it.

by dajafi on Oct 6, 2008 8:39 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

There was an ESPN fans poll on the series that first asked who wins – Dodgers or Phillies – and majority picked Dodgers (55-45?). Then there were three specifics asked that were skipped by a lot of the voters: Better lineup, better rotation, better bullpen. For all three the Phillies were the majority choice. So, either voters who favored the Dodgers didn’t bother voting on the specific questions, or there are quite a few people who think the Phillies are the better team on paper but feel the Dodgers will win.
By the way, regarding hoped for matchups, I can remember in 1980 really wanting a Phillies-Yankees World Series, the chance to finally beat the hated Yankees. Instead we got a great series against the Royals and I realized that it makes little difference who you play as far as having the chance for special memories. So, if the Phillies do make the World Series it won’t matter to me if it’s vs. the Rays, the Red Sox or the Angels. The only one that might lack a built-in story line would be Angels vs. Phillies. If the Rays are in the Series they are the biggest story; if the Red Sox are in vs. the Phillies you’ve got the Terry Francona story and the re-match of 1915, Babe Ruth’s first series, etc.

by phillyinportland on Oct 6, 2008 10:33 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Joe Torre

Nuff ’Said

by jemagee on Oct 7, 2008 12:29 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Overrated.

by taco pal on Oct 7, 2008 5:19 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

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