Resigning Pat Burrell

by Steve Jeltz on Oct 6, 2008 1:19 PM EDT Comment 12 comments

Putting aside yesterday's heroics, what would be the wise thing to do with Pat Burrell?

With his weak finish to the regular season, he's aruably coming off his worst season since '04, although his numbers generally have been freakishly consistent since then. He has posted OPSs of .892, .890, .902., and .875 from '05-'08, respectively. He is days away from being 32, so I would argue that he has another 2-3 seasons of production falling within that range. So what, exactly, is a 32-year old who can reliably give you that kind of offensive production (and, it bears mention, unquestionably bad defense) worth to the Phillies? Would 4 yrs/40-45 million get it done, or am I way off?

As a disclaimer to this post, I'm kind of out of the loop on the Burrell contract negotiations (or lack thereof), so I may have missed some information along the way concerning what Burrell is looking for and what the Phillies are willing to pay.

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I’d go 2 with a club option on the 3rd… somewhere between 9-12M per. he says he likes it in Philly and wants to stay… he should know he was drastically overpaid for a few years. let’s set how much he wants to stay.

Kiffin/Linehan '09!
Super Bowl or Bust!

*weaps softly*

by foos05 on Oct 6, 2008 1:27 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I agree with the salary range, but I think we’d probably have to go to either 2 (with a player option for 3) or 3 (with or without a club option for 4) to legitimately say we’ve made a good faith effort to keep him. I agree that he’s been overpaid in the past, but that doesn’t mean we should expect him to give it back in the form of an undervalued contract.

Steve Jeltz
.210/.308/.268
"If you condensed everything I ever did in my career into one game, it looks decent"

by Steve Jeltz on Oct 6, 2008 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think what I stated is fair value… i’m just saying that he’s probably capable of going to the AL and DHing and making more than what we’ll be willing to spend… so we’ll see how much he really likes Philly

Kiffin/Linehan '09!
Super Bowl or Bust!

*weaps softly*

by foos05 on Oct 6, 2008 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He has been drastically overpaid for a few years? Take the last 4 years, and compare to other people being paid the same amount and see where his numbers have been compared to them.

For Who? My teammates.

For What? To Win.

How Much? Where do I sign?

by jonk on Oct 7, 2008 8:29 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

although I know what you’re getting at… I will also say that contracts set prices for future contracts… so if Pat was making X amount, then a player that feels that he would put up similar number to Pat would feel entitled to a similar amount of money, if not more…

not trying to argue or anything, just pointing that out.

kinda like a chicken or the egg thing

Foos for OC in '09!
Send... it... in!

by foos05 on Oct 7, 2008 9:23 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Pat has not been overpaid for the past few years

He’s just been under appreciated and over criticized by a fan base that as a whole doesn’t seem to get it, ever.

by jemagee on Oct 7, 2008 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I’d like to see them make a really good two-year offer—something like $14-15m per—with an option/buyout that would bring the minimum value of the deal to something like two years, $32 million, and the max to something like 3/$42m.

Would he take that? I don’t know. It’s really difficult to gauge what the market will be for Pat, because his strengths and weaknesses are both so pronounced. Maybe it helps, from the perspective of wanting to keep him around, that a lot of the teams that could really use him (I’m thinking Twins and A’s, for two) can’t spend with the Phillies.

by dajafi on Oct 6, 2008 2:49 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I think there’s a better chance that the Phillies re-sign Burrell than most people believe, just because of the lack of credible alternatives. There’s no one in the system capable of starting in left field right now, and anyone who’s even decent on the FA market is likely to come with a price tag in the same ballpark as Burrell’s if not even higher (or that’s at least less of a value).

by taco pal on Oct 6, 2008 2:51 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I think that:

3 years x 45m would probably get it done, although I think if the Phils could convince Burrell to go for 2 years x 30m w/ a player option for a 3rd year at 15m for that year, they should take that road. Burrell might be interested in that, so that he could get in one more multi-year deal before retirement, if he thinks that at age 34 he’ll be coming off a productive year and could squeeze another 2-3 year committment at several mil per per team. Burrell’s in pretty remarkable shape, so I think that the fall off the earth for him will come a bit later than for other three-outcome players.

Pros for the phils would be maintain status quo for a playoff-caliber team at least 2 more years with the option of again extending the contract — a lot of flexibility.

Pros for Burrell would be he maintains salary, which he might not on the open market, and gets enough time to get another final contract in there. Maybe he’ll have 6 years of contract at ~$15m annual instead of 4 years at $15m annual (4 yrs, 60m total deal might be a potential asking price for him) and then the last two years at a smaller salary DHing in the AL. 3 years at $15m in the NL, then 3 at ~$15m in the AL would be an ideal situation for him, I think. And, I think he’ll be at least pretty productive (minimum as a platoon player) late into his 30s because he keeps such good shape.

by Alon on Oct 6, 2008 11:18 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I had the feeling for most of this season that Burrell’s path to staying in Philadelphia was a Ryan Howard trade that would facilitate him making a position switch to first base.

They probably wouldn’t trade Howard now that he’s a sure top-5 MVP finisher, and very possible winner (though I’d still make discreet inquiries, were I the GM—maybe the Angels, maybe the Yankees). So my guess is that they’ll make an offer that’s respectable but a bit on the low side, offer arbitration when Burrell rejects it, and take the picks.

I love Pat and I’ll always be a fan, but strictly from a baseball business perspective, this would be a defensible course of action.

by dajafi on Oct 7, 2008 5:33 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Agreed

I love Burrell and if you look deeply into his numbers. He is one of the most productive players in baseball over the last 5 years. I hope the Phillies lock him up to another contract. But, I think it is way more likely that he gets signed as a DH to an AL team. Teams that could use him as DH include Orioles, Yankees, Rays, Jays, Royals, Twins, Angels, Mariners, and Rangers. So unless Pat really loves playing left field for below his market value, he will likely be in a different uniform next year. The exception will be, if he carries the Phils on his back to a world series victory. A couple more 2 homer playoff games might cement his fate in this uniform. Lets all pray thats the case.

by schrifty on Oct 7, 2008 6:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I’m a Ryan Howard fan, but he shouldn’t be a top 5 MVP (and if he wins it’s a travesty as he wasn’t the MVP on his team) but the BBWAA is populated by aging doddering idiots who idolize that buzz guy who hates bloggers.

As for trading Howard, ever since people started floating that Cain for Howard/Fielder rumor, I’ve been pro. Howards age and contract demands have always worried me long term and I’d really rather add Matt Cain to Cole Hamels.

by jemagee on Oct 8, 2008 10:01 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs