So How's That Powerful Phillies Offense Doing in the Playoffs?

by David S. Cohen on Oct 7, 2008 11:26 AM EDT Comment 11 comments

Conventional wisdom around here is that the Phillies have to step up their offensive production in order to win against the Dodgers in the upcoming National League Championship Series.

There does seem to be something to this conventional wisdom. After all, the Phillies high-powered offense completely floundered in last year's three-and-out playoffs. And this year, despite winning against the Brewers, the Phillies scored 15 runs, only 3.75 per game. That does not compare well at all to the team's 4.93 per game for the regular season.

But looking at the team's other indicators shows that maybe the offense is doing ok. For the season, the Phillies hit .255/.332/.438 for a .770 OPS. In the Brewers series, the team hit .250/.329/.469 for a .797 OPS. So, their average and on-base percentage stayed about the same, but they hit for more power in the playoffs.

So what's driving conventional wisdom and the decreased run production? The Phillies did not perform well with runners on base against the Brewers. The Phils hit .173/.306/.327 for a .633 OPS with runners on base against the Brewers. During the regular season, despite oft-heard complaints to the contrary, the team did much better with runners on, hitting .269/.352/.465 for a .817 OPS. If the Phillies want to improve their run scoring against the Dodgers to give their pitching a bit more breathing room, this is where the team as a whole is going to need to improve.

On an individual level, among the regulars, there are three hitters who need to put any playoff nerves they're experiencing behind them. Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, and Carlos Ruiz have really struggled in both playoff rounds they've appeared in. Here are their combined playoff numbers from this year and last:

	HR	RBI	R	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Ryan Howard	1	2	2	0.217	0.380	0.391	0.771
Chase Utley	0	2	1	0.154	0.267	0.192	0.459
Carlos Ruiz	0	0	2	0.174	0.240	0.217	0.457

Now, we all know that not much is expected of Ruiz offensively. It would be nice, and there was a time when we did have those expectations, but we're long past that point. But Utley and Howard are different. Looking at this chart, Utley's playoff performance is the most concerning as he is a major piece of this offense but has disappeared in the playoffs this year and last. Howard's numbers look decent in a vacuum, but they're far from where he has performed when he has carried the team, and they're inflated by his 5 walks against the Brewers and his meaningless solo home run in game 2 against the Rockies.

Any way you slice it, these three hitters need to improve if the Phils' offense is going to start producing.

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I wonder how Utley’s sterling reputation as Captain Clutch will fare if he lays another egg in the NLCS.

by WholeCamels on Oct 7, 2008 12:48 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Senor Petey is just so sucky that even looking and asking him to improve isn’t worth it?

“Captain Clutch” – Seriously – who the hell gave Chase Utley that idiotic nickname…last time I heard it it was referring to the most over rated shortstop (or bestest baseball player ever depending on your point of view) in the history of all baseball

by jemagee on Oct 7, 2008 1:09 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

last year

I only looked at guys who played this year and last.

by David S. Cohen on Oct 7, 2008 2:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

PS – 4 games? Chase Utley and Ryan Howard ever have a ‘4 game mini slump’ before?

by jemagee on Oct 7, 2008 1:10 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I see good things from the lefties in this series. But I’ve been wrong before (just check the “Postseason series predictions” fanpost…).

For Howard, the key is staying patient—he needs to keep taking his walks if they won’t give him anything to hit. What worries me about him is that when he’s pitched around, he often starts to press, and swings at garbage, to the point where there’s soon no need to pitch around him.

For Utley, I think some of it is BABIP. He hit a few balls hard in that Brewers series that were right at defenders. (Of course, this is also true of the one big hit he did have in the series: the “double” in Game One that Cameron couldn’t handle.) And you have to worry some about his health.

by dajafi on Oct 7, 2008 1:15 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

According to a poster on one of the many boards I’ve been banned from,

Bowa was on 950 AM and said Kershaw won’t be a starter, and that Derrick Lowe will pitch game 4 on short rest

Is it nice of Joe Torre to not start any lefties or mind games from Bowa (is he capable of those?)

by jemagee on Oct 7, 2008 1:26 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I think it was in the “Eduardo Perez” comments that I wrote how it was hard to see Torre starting a 20 year-old in the playoffs. Additionally, I think Lowe on three days’ rest maybe makes sense, since as a sinkerball guy you probably want him a little tired anyway.

by dajafi on Oct 7, 2008 2:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

That’s what makes Torre the bestest…phillies scrooged

by jemagee on Oct 7, 2008 4:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You do realize that, stripping away the accents and other regionalisms, Torre and Manuel are basically the same manager, right?

by dajafi on Oct 7, 2008 5:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

haha. so true.

by FuquaManuel on Oct 7, 2008 10:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Oh come on, Joe Torre survived in New York and won all those world series titles, and all those playoff games, and the Yankees wouldn’t have won a single one of those games without the keen managerial mind that is Joe Torre.

I also believe that Pedro Feliz and Carlos Ruiz should be enshrined in the Philadlephia Phillies HOF immediately

by jemagee on Oct 8, 2008 10:00 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs