Ten Things You Might Not Know About the Philadelphia Phillies

by David S. Cohen on Oct 8, 2008 11:48 AM EDT

A media narrative is developing, and it's not kind to the Phillies. So, in light of that, here are ten things you might not, but should, know about the Philadelphia Phillies:

1. The Phillies had the second best record in the NL this year. At 92-70, the Phillies were 5.5 games behind the Cubs for the best record in the NL. On the other hand, the Dodgers had the 8th best record in the NL this year. At 84-78, the Dodgers finished just behind the 84-77 Marlins. If the Phillies were in the NL West, they'd have finished 8 games ahead of the Dodgers.

2. The Phillies had the fifth best record in the majors this year. The Phillies finished behind only the Angels, Cubs, Rays, and Red Sox. Not to belabor the point, but the Dodgers finished 15th in the majors, behind such also-rans as the Cardinals, Astros, Yankees, and Blue Jays.

3. The Phillies had the best road record in the NL this year. The Phillies were 7 games over .500 for a 44-37 record on the road. The Cubs, the best team in the NL during the regular season, were second with a 42-38 record. The Phillies' road record was second in the majors only to the Angels, who were an incredible 50-31 on the road. The Dodgers were 9 games under .500 on the road, or 36-45.

4. The Phillies were tied for third for best home record in the NL this year. They were tied with the Dodgers (Mets and Diamondbacks too) at 48-33. Thus, as much as Dodger Stadium's pitcher-friendly park helped the Dodgers, Citizens Bank Park's deceptively neutral environment helped the Phillies.

5. Since the Manny trade, the Phillies, at 34-21, have had a much better record than the Dodgers, at 30-25. Much is being made in the press about how Manny Ramirez turned the Dodgers' season around. That may be true, but since he played his first game as a Dodger on July 31, the Dodgers went 30-25 for a .545 winning percentage. He apparently had a much bigger effect on the Phillies, who went 34-21 for a .618 winning percentage since the trade.

6. The Phillies finished much stronger than the Dodgers. The same story has been told about the Dodgers' strong finish. But the Phillies were 17-8 in September, the same exact record as the Dodgers for the month. And the Phillies were much stronger in the last 16 games. The Phillies finished 13-3, whereas the Dodgers went only 9-7 to finish the season.

7. The Phillies had the hottest hitter in baseball in September. Manny Ramirez was very good in September and definitely helped the Dodgers. He hit 8 home runs, drove in 28 runs, and scored 15. He posted a .370/.465/.753 triple-slash line for a 1.218 OPS. Damn good month of September for Manny. But Ryan Howard, not Manny Ramirez, was the King of September in MLB. Howard hit 11 home runs, drove in 32, and scored 26, all MLB highs for the month. His line was .352/.422/.852 for a 1.274 OPS. Manny was awesome; Howard was even more so.

8. The Phillies had the pitcher with the lowest WHIP in the NL. Playing half his games in a neutral park (which was much more hitter-friendly than the Dodgers' insane pitchers' park), Cole Hamels gave up only 1.08 base runners per inning pitched, the best mark in the NL. He trailed only Roy Halladay (1.05) for the major league lead.

9. The Phillies were only slightly outpitched by the Dodgers this year. The Dodgers led the NL with a 3.68 team ERA. They did that in their incredible pitchers' park. However, the Phillies, in their reportedly-hitters' park that actually played neutral this year, put up a 3.88 team ERA, a surprising fourth in the NL. On the road, the Phillies outpitched the Dodgers -- a 4.13 road ERA compared to the Dodgers 4.38 road ERA. The Dodgers' starters outpitched the Phillies', 3.87 ERA to 4.23 ERAA (thanks Adam Eaton and second-half Kyle Kendrick). However, the Phillies' relievers outpitched the Dodgers', 3.19 ERA to 3.33 ERA. In advanced terms, the Dodgers had a 269 team pitching VORP (second in the majors, first in the NL), whereas the Phillies were only slightly behind with a 254 VORP (fifth in the majors, third in the NL).

10. By every measure, the Phillies outhit the Dodgers . . . and it's not even close. The Phillies scored 799 runs, while the Dodgers scored only 700. The Phillies outhomered the Dodgers by 77 home runs -- 214 to 137. The Phillies had a much better team OPS -- .770 compared to .732. The Phillies were better on the basepaths too, stealing 136 bases at an 84% success rate compared to the Dodgers stealing 126 at a 75% success rate. In advanced terms, the Phillies had a 232 team VORP (seventh in the majors, fourth in the NL), compared to the Dodgers 163 (19th in the majors, 9th in the NL).

As you watch, listen, and read about the upcoming Phillies/Dodgers series, keep this information in mind. It'll help you keep your sanity as the media narrative about the transformed Manny/Torre Dodgers spins out of control.

[And here's an addendum number 11:

11. The Phillies have the manager with the better career managing win-loss record. Charlie Manuel's career record as a manager is 574-484 for a .543 winning percentage. Joe Torre's career record as a manager is 2151-1848 for a .538 winning percentage.]

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b-b-b-b-b-b-but MANNY. And TORREEEEE!!!!

NONE of this is to say that the Phillies are absolutely going to win this series; it’s just absolutely absurd the way many (most?) of the MSM (lol winger term) are treating this like a foregone conclusion…

by WholeCamels on Oct 8, 2008 12:14 PM EDT 0 recs

Nice.

by taco pal on Oct 8, 2008 12:26 PM EDT 0 recs

In fairness, if you use OPS+ only for the players in each team’s current starting lineups and project over the entire season (for those who were injured or joined the team mid-year), the Dodgers come out ahead. Although a lot of that is because of Furcal’s ridiculous 160 OPS+ which only came in 36 games and is a pretty obvious fluke (previous career high in OPS+ for a season was 107 over eight seasons).

by taco pal on Oct 8, 2008 12:40 PM EDT 0 recs

true

The Dodgers are a different team than the one they had most of the season, while the Phillies are the same. Manny, Furcal, and Kershaw, and Blake are really nice additions. I see this series as a tossup.

And as for overall record in the majors, you need to give AL teams about a five game bump for difference in league talent. I’d take the Yankees, Blue Jays, and White Sox (but not the Twins) over the Phillies or Dodgers.

Cole Hamels is not getting nearly the recognition he deserves, although neither are Utley and Victorino, thanks to the Howard media machine.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Oct 8, 2008 4:32 PM EDT up 0 recs

I didn't want

to have to go through Philly to the World Series. Nice points about your team but using the Dodger complete season numbers doesn’t do them justice. At this point in the year they have the best lineup they have had in years. It took two trades to get Manny and Blake into the lineup. Some good luck to get Furcal healthy at the right time, and then some fortunate injuries to make sure that Kemp/Ethier were in the lineup every day. Finally a rested Martin seems to be a night and day difference. He was swinging the bat with some authority during the Cub series for the first time since last May.
The last time the Phillies saw this team they were a wreck. Just about the same lineup mentioned above but they hit the worse dry spell of the season. Now they are hitting on all cylinders and the one thing they have which I hope is a difference maker is Kuo/Beimel/Kershaw in the bullpen to try to mitigate the late inning damage your LHH studs will do.
It is strange that the Dodgers were not given a chance in hell against the Cubs and all of the sudden they are getting all the press. I’d rather still be flying under the radar, it is so much more satisfying when the victories come at the expense of the talking heads.

Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen

by ToyCannon on Oct 8, 2008 1:30 PM EDT 0 recs

All solid points.

My sense is that the Dodgers are somewhere between an “84-win team” and the unstoppable juggernaut the flacks and hacks are now making them out to be—and that if the current Dodger team played a full season, they’d have put up a record fairly close to what the Phillies did. The series looks to me like a jump ball, probably to be determined by which team gets better performance from its starting pitchers.

by dajafi on Oct 8, 2008 1:53 PM EDT up 0 recs

Agreed

Agreed with dajafi that these are good points, but then what explains the disconnect between the perception about the team after Manny and the reality of their post-Manny record, their September record being the same as the Phils’, and the last 16 game record being much worse than the Phils’?

by David S. Cohen on Oct 8, 2008 2:03 PM EDT up 0 recs

We went 0-8

in August thanks to the sweep you guys whooped on us. It was a complete offensive meltdown fueled by the inability to hit with RISP or hit a home run. Kent was playing hurt, Nomar was playing hurt. The team took off when Kent went down for surgery and Nomar hit the bench. The record with DeWitt starting at 2nd base is the real eye opener.
Furcal at SS is probably as important to us as Rollins at SS for you. Imagine playing 100 games with Berroa as your SS. It was awful, just fricking awful.

Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen

by ToyCannon on Oct 8, 2008 2:10 PM EDT up 0 recs

Last 16?

But what about the 9-7 last 16 games when you were fighting for the playoff spot? That’s not bad, but it’s not exactly burning up the schedule.

by David S. Cohen on Oct 8, 2008 2:19 PM EDT up 0 recs

That team went 15-3

between Aug 30th and Sept 18th. Things have to even out after a run like that. It did not have Kuo, Saito, or Furcal, and Martin was playing on fumes. The Dodgers are not a juggernaut but the team as it is currently composed for the playoffs is the best 25 man roster they have had all year. Only thing missing is a healthy Brad Penny. Every team has injuries, the Dodgers have just been lucky enough to have them all get healthy for when the postseason starts. Even Jeff Kent might prove useful off the bench just six weeks after surgery. Sure beats having Mark Sweeney on the bench.

So what is the word on Utley’s health? Is bad Burrell gone after his dismantling of the Brewers? A hot Burrell would be bad news for Dodger fans. Or when Burrell get hot, does he suck the juice from Howard and it becomes a wash?

Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen

by ToyCannon on Oct 8, 2008 2:39 PM EDT up 0 recs

We just assume that Utley has a painful hip injury that he’s playing through (and not saying jack about). The sense is that it depletes his power some, but otherwise isn’t hurting him all that much.

Burrell and Howard are rarely hot at the same time. But I wouldn’t conclude much either way from Pat’s one great game against the Brewers, or even Howard’s lousy series.

One big question might be whether Manuel hits either Werth or Burrell between Utley and Howard, to mitigate the Dodgers’ potential situational advantage with Beimel, Kershaw and Kuo. Sometimes he does, sometimes he doesn’t.

by dajafi on Oct 8, 2008 3:41 PM EDT up 0 recs

I believe the Dodgers clinched prior to their game on September 25, so the last four games (in which they went 1-3) don’t really count.

by taco pal on Oct 8, 2008 2:44 PM EDT up 0 recs

dammit!

I was going to lead my next piece with the bit about Manuel’s and Torre’s career winning percentages.

by dajafi on Oct 8, 2008 1:51 PM EDT 0 recs

record

This is the kind of site I like to see…all the philly faithful will fall into the trap that has been set up…just like the Baby Bears did in the 1st round….The Dodgers overall record is terrible…that’s because they didn’t have their players…if this current lineup played the whole season…they would have won at least 97 games at least…they are playing loose and they are hot despite their “9-7” record… what you don’t know was they were trying to get people ready for the playoffs at the end…Our main piece (furcal) to the puzzle is back…watch out…Now I know all about the Dodger/Philly relationship…my parents were born in Philly and all my cousin live in the general area and my uncle and i have a friendly wager….Good luck in the upcoming series and may the best team win…Go Dodgers

by K T1 on Oct 8, 2008 3:09 PM EDT 0 recs

the only trap i see is the MSM giving the Dodgers the free pass on this series and assuming they’ll be seeing Boston in the WS… doesn’t sound like a trap we have to worry about

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by foos05 on Oct 8, 2008 3:29 PM EDT up 0 recs

I am starting to like the complete lack of respect the Phillies are receiving from the national media. I have always thought that in any competition of skill, considering oneself (and being considered by others) as the “underdog” is the best psychological state to be in — insofar as psychological states have a meaningful effect on performance.

Strange as it is that the Phils can be considered underdogs by so many people, I like it. And I think they should embrace it.

by FuquaManuel on Oct 8, 2008 3:21 PM EDT 0 recs

True words. The combination of self-confidence the Phillies have shown over the last two years plus the lack of respect from many experts and certain New Yorkers have often put the Phillies in that desired for psychological state – the underdog who knows he is better than perceived. The one time in the last two years when they might have allowed themselves to think they were the favorites was the Rockies series – I don’t think they’ll make that mistake again. Embrace the challenge of beating the favorite.

by phillyinportland on Oct 8, 2008 8:59 PM EDT up 0 recs

No more Andruw

Andruw Jones had a 32 OPS + and used 209 Abs

Juan Pierre had 375 mostly awful ABs (70 OPS +)

Angel Berroa had 226 ABs with a 60 OPS +

They were pretty much replaced by Furcal, Manny plus more PT for Ethier (who has been hitting a ton) and Kemp.

That’s a lot of ABs for guys who were terrible exchanged for guys who can really hit.

The Phils were forced to give Bruntlett 217 ABs and Jenkins had 293 ABS and So Taguchi somehow flailed and failed for 91 ABs. But the Dodgers gave a lot more ABs to guys who were even worse. And they replaced them right now for guys who are much better.

I think the two teams are fairly evenly matched. The starting pitchers and the bullpen guys who will actually pitch in the post season look pretty good too.

Both teams are hot heading into this series (much like the Phils and Rockies last season). That doesn’t always mean much once the series starts though. The team that finishes the hottest doesn’t necessarily win every series. In fact, I’m not sure there is any correlation at all.

by smitty99 on Oct 8, 2008 3:23 PM EDT 0 recs

I always liked Tony Gwynn.

by taco pal on Oct 8, 2008 3:41 PM EDT 0 recs

Hey David, you need to put up a welcome sign for all the Rob Neyer readers.

by taco pal on Oct 8, 2008 5:04 PM EDT 0 recs

Pretty cool

I saw that. It was reading Neyer 11 or 12 years ago that got me started as an analytic baseball fan.

by David S. Cohen on Oct 8, 2008 5:29 PM EDT up 0 recs

Me too

Too bad I don’t have an Insider account, though.

by WholeCamels on Oct 8, 2008 6:07 PM EDT up 0 recs

Neither do I, actually. Somebody should post some excerpts that don’t violate fair use.

by taco pal on Oct 9, 2008 10:07 AM EDT up 0 recs

it’s actually not very extensive… he basically cut and pasted numbers 3, 5, 6, and 10 and agreed with them. also added some small things stating that our road ERA is better than LA’s road ERA and that we score just as many runs on the road as we do at home. inferred that we play in a hitter friendly part (surprise!). “Many being Manny, and Joe Torre being Yoda” was tossed in there. Finishes up by saying that Dodgers are better than their record, but the Phils are a bit better and he’s picking them to go to the WS…

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by foos05 on Oct 9, 2008 10:41 AM EDT up 0 recs

and the Dodgers fans are screaming at him because they know the Dodgers will win and statistics don’t mean anything and la la la… that’s all you’re missing

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by foos05 on Oct 9, 2008 10:47 AM EDT up 0 recs

Standard Fan Reaction on ESPN goes something like this

You picked my team to lose, why do you and everyone at ESPN hate them.

Sadly, Phillies fans are saying it quite a bit as well after most ESPN heads picked the Dodgers to beat the Phils in the ALCS.

by jemagee on Oct 9, 2008 11:30 AM EDT up 0 recs

they should hit refresh and hope for a better outcome

Foos for OC in '09!
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by foos05 on Oct 9, 2008 11:34 AM EDT up 0 recs

I think that’s just the human condition.

by taco pal on Oct 9, 2008 11:43 AM EDT up 0 recs

I had the same thought when I saw his piece—he was my introduction to this world too.

Thanks, Rob. Hope there are no hard feelings about 1980.

by dajafi on Oct 8, 2008 8:49 PM EDT up 0 recs

Dodger Offense

David, you certainly bring up good points, and as a Dodger fan I am definitely very worried about facing such a good Phillies team. However, as ToyCannon mentioned, the Dodger offense as presently constructed is quite good. I posted this over on Dodger Thoughts, and thought I’d add it here too:

This offense can be broken into segments:

MVP Furcal: Mar 31 – May 5
Dead Zone: May 6 – July 31
MVP Manny: Aug 1 – Sep 28

During the “dead zone”, the Dodger offense hit .244/.303/.359, and averaged 3.66 runs/game over 76 games (36-40 record).

During the “functioning offense” periods, the Dodgers hit .282/.358/.433, and averaged 4.91 runs/game over 86 games (48-38 record).

The Dodgers had a good (dare I say Phillies-good) offense when either Furcal or Manny was playing, and now they have both members playing at the same time.

I think both teams matchup well, each with superb offenses and pitching. I am looking forward to a great series, and wish all the Phillies’ fans here the best of luck.

Less than 4 hours to game time! Butterflies are starting to form.

-Eric

by ericstephen on Oct 9, 2008 4:27 PM EDT 0 recs