Which Dodgers Scare You? It May Not Be Who You Think
Dodgers fans and the national media are in a tizzy over Los Angeles' now complete lineup. No longer are they giving plate appearances to Andruw Jones, Juan Pierre, and Nomar Garciaparra. Instead, they have Manny Ramirez, Casey Blake, and Rafael Furcal. Along with Matt Kemp, Blake DeWitt, Russell Martin, James Loney, and Andre Ethier, the Dodgers lineup is certainly a good one.
As Phillies fans, which of these guys are we supposed to be afraid of? Conventional wisdom tells us that the new guys who lifted the team in the second half are the ones to watch -- Furcal, Ramirez, and Blake. But, looking at how these guys have done historically against the Phillies, both generally and at Citizens Bank Park, the numbers tell us otherwise.
Here's a chart showing the career numbers of these three newcomers:
| Against Phillies | At CBP | |||||||||||
| PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |||
| Rafael Furcal | 478 | 0.255 | 0.309 | 0.356 | 0.666 | 114 | 0.274 | 0.316 | 0.453 | 0.769 | ||
| Manny Ramirez | 115 | 0.274 | 0.383 | 0.611 | 0.993 | 53 | 0.191 | 0.264 | 0.383 | 0.647 | ||
| Casey Blake | 43 | 0.205 | 0.256 | 0.282 | 0.538 | 16 | 0.143 | 0.250 | 0.143 | 0.393 | ||
What we have here is three guys who have not thrived against the Phillies or at CBP. Furcal, with his service time as a Brave, has the most plate appearances. He's struggled against the Phillies, with only a .666 OPS. He's done better at CBP, but that comes mostly from power and not at all as a table-setter who gets on base. Ramirez has hit well against the Phillies, but even his .993 OPS is only a 96 tOPS+ for him (meaning it's 4% lower than his overall OPS). At CBP, he's been awful, with a .647 OPS in 54 plate appearances. Blake has the most limited time against the Phillies, but his stats are the worst -- barely hitting up to Endy Chavez levels against the Phillies as a whole, and reaching sub-Abraham Nunez levels at CBP.
So, based on the past, Furcal, Ramirez, and Blake are not the guys we should be scared of. The problem is, it's the rest of the lineup that's going to give us problems. Removing DeWitt from the analysis because he's never played the Phillies, we see that the rest of the Dodgers' everyday lineup gives the Phillies fits, both generally and at CBP:
| Against Phillies | At CBP | |||||||||||
| PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |||
| Russell Martin | 64 | 0.300 | 0.453 | 0.560 | 1.013 | 27 | 0.238 | 0.407 | 0.524 | 0.931 | ||
| Andre Ethier | 65 | 0.291 | 0.400 | 0.564 | 0.964 | 29 | 0.292 | 0.414 | 0.625 | 1.039 | ||
| James Loney | 73 | 0.348 | 0.389 | 0.500 | 0.889 | 42 | 0.400 | 0.429 | 0.575 | 1.004 | ||
| Matt Kemp | 73 | 0.353 | 0.397 | 0.662 | 1.059 | 30 | 0.333 | 0.400 | 0.519 | 0.919 | ||
All of these guys have thrived against the Phillies, particularly at CBP. All four have a .400+ OBP in Philadelphia. All four are right around that number generally against the Phillies as well. Their slugging percentages are .500 or better, with some in the .600 range. Basically, against the Phillies, in Los Angeles or Philadelphia, they get on base, and they hit for power.
Furcal, Ramirez, and Blake are getting all the attention these days, but Martin, Ethier, Loney, and Kemp are the Dodgers that should scare us. Our only comfort is the statistician's favorite refrain: small sample size. Put that on repeat in your head for this series.
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Comments
Kemp
has been quiet for quite a while now. What looked like an excellent sophomore season after his hot July turned into just an average one when he failed to deliver the last two months. He still has the highest ceiling of any Dodger and maybe he will finally pull his weight in the NLCS. He’s my pick.
Hope you don’t mind me posting here but True Blue is not a very active site and I like getting good information from our competition.
Can’t agree with the Phillies in 5 but given that we hadn’t won more then one postseason game in 20 years until last week I can understand the optimism.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by ToyCannon on Oct 9, 2008 1:45 PM EDT 0 recs
and “regression to the mean”
of course, i never think that when our players step up
GO PHILS!
by pjnc2003 on Oct 9, 2008 1:54 PM EDT 0 recs
Joe Sheehan
And Sheehan says that it’s the closest matchup he can remember in a post-season series, but he picks the Phillies in 6.
by David S. Cohen on
Oct 9, 2008 2:53 PM EDT
up
0 recs












