Howard for MVP? Pass.

by WholeCamels on Nov 16, 2008 11:59 AM EST Comment 52 comments

UPDATE: CONGRATULATIONS Albert Pujols, 2008 NL MVP. Ryan Howard finished second, and Brad Lidge finished 8th overall, with two first-place votes. Details here.

On Monday at 2 PM Eastern Time, the results of the 2008 National League MVP balloting will be released. If you believe what you've been reading in the papers, it's more or less a two man race, with Cardinals slugger Albert Pujols versus Phillies first baseman Ryan Howard (with the occasional mention of Astros first baseman Lance Berkman thrown in). I'm not here to stump for or defend Ryan Howard as an MVP candidate -- I'm here to hang him out to dry.

In 2006, we had Howard vs. Pujols Part 1, with Howard winning the award. By lots of measures, Pujols had the better season, and his team made the playoffs (eventually winning the World Series). Howard, though, hit 58 home runs, and nearly single handedly put his team in the playoffs. Howard was a defensible choice, and despite Pujols getting sore about it, the Cardinals and their fans were more than happy to content themselves with a fresh, shiny World Series trophy.

We should be happy with the same thing. Ryan Howard is not a legitimate MVP candidate, and it's not even close.

Pujols is a victim of his own amazing consistency. His CAREER OPS+ is 170. His OPS+ in 2008 was a career-high 190. His defense at first base is stellar. He performs at an elite level in every single aspect of the game with the possible exception of baserunning. He doesn't shock and amaze anyone because he's always so damned good, that you just get used to it.

Howard outpaced Pujols in two categories -- Home runs and RBI. His RBI total was largely a function of the remarkable hitters in front of him. His OPS+ in 2008 was 124. To put that in perspective, Jayson Werth's OPS+ was 121, and Pat Burrell's was 125. Couple that with truly bad defense at first base, and you do not have an MVP -- you have a sweet dispositioned Dave Kingman in one of his better seasons.

None of this is to say that I don't like Ryan Howard as a player. When he's in a groove he's as good as anyone in the league. His September this year was mind-bogglingly remarkable. But over the course of the season, if you can make solid arguments for four players on your own team being more valuable than you (Utley, Burrell, Hamels, and Lidge), you should not be in the mix for league MVP.

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i agree. a met fan friend of mine talked some smack back in early september about it and i denied it then. even after a fantastic september, Howard didn’t convince me he deserved it. if he wins, ill definitely be happy for him, but the team got the trophy that mattered, no need to be greedy

by pjnc2003 on Nov 16, 2008 1:07 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I’m not looking forward to having to defend Howard’s possible MVP selection, so this article is kind of a first defensive salvo in that case.

Something is seriously wrong if Pujols doesn’t win the award. Although Albert did kind of put his foot in his mouth in 2006 with his “the MVP’s team should be in the playoffs” comment.

Regardless, I really like Albert Pujols and I hope he wins.

http://www.thegoodphight.com
WHY CAN'T US?

by WholeCamels on Nov 16, 2008 1:52 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Totally agree. Howard already got the award he earned: NL Player of the Month for September.

For MVP, he’d be in my top 10, probably not in my top 5.

by dajafi on Nov 16, 2008 5:52 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

What I am scared of is Bill Conlin’s response to the emails he gets criticizing his column on how great Ryan Howard is and how much he deserved the award when/if Howard wins it.

by FuquaManuel on Nov 16, 2008 7:47 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Baboons are funny to watch

by jemagee on Nov 16, 2008 9:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

http://www.thegoodphight.com
WHY CAN'T US?

by WholeCamels on Nov 16, 2008 10:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I wouldn’t necessarily stop at 4. The following Phillies players had a higher WARP3 than Howard last year:

Jayson Werth
Pat Burrell
Shane Victorino
Jimmy Rollins
Brad Lidge
Cole Hamels
Shane Victorino
Jamie Moyer
Chase Utley

WARP has its problems, but still….9th on his own team!

by bugbear on Nov 16, 2008 10:07 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

excellent point

Again, to reiterate: Howard = excellent player on a championship squad, NOT A LEAGUE MVP.

http://www.thegoodphight.com
WHY CAN'T US?

by WholeCamels on Nov 17, 2008 9:45 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Good piece…I wrote something similar.

Huge Tiny Mistake

by pacino on Nov 17, 2008 11:01 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

I agree, but I have a hard time getting worked up about these awards. The time to get worked up is when contracts get handed out.

by taco pal on Nov 17, 2008 11:43 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

I don’t disagree with the fact that Albert Pujols should win the MVP. If he doesn’t, it’ll be because of Howard’s September and the Michael Jordan corollary (when someone is so good year-in and year-out that people get tired of voting for him). But the WARP statistic bothers me because statistically, maybe those guys had better seasons but we all know that without Ryan Howard’s September, the Phillies may not make the Playoffs let alone win the World Series. I don’t think he was the most valuable player on his team throughout the year, but he is just as valuable as most of those 8 guys and to intimate otherwise seems like a stretch.

by chrismchaines on Nov 17, 2008 12:45 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

The problem I have with focusing on Howard’s performance in September is that it sweeps under the rug his miserable performance early in the year.

The flip side of “without Ryan Howard’s September, the Phillies may not make the Playoffs let alone win the World Series” is “had Howard not hit like Abraham Nunez in April, they might not have had to come from behind in September.”

by phatj on Nov 17, 2008 1:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I dunno. Look at Clemens and The Big Unit. RJ won the CY Young 4 years in a row. How many MVPs has Pujols won?

For Who? My teammates.

For What? To Win.

How Much? Where do I sign?

by jonk on Nov 17, 2008 1:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

This is his 2nd with more to come, but you could make a case for him just about every year.

by chrismchaines on Nov 17, 2008 2:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yes, it is true that without Ryan Howard’s September the Phillies would not have been in the post season. However, you could pick many players on this year’s teams and say “Without Player X’s month of Y” the Phillies wouldn’t have made it. Utley and Burrell’s hot starts come to mind. As do random months from Hamels and Moyer this year. Come to think about it, Lidge was the only true constant.

I love what Ryan Howard brings to the table, but I’m afraid this year he would be an indefensible choice as MVP.

Steve Jeltz
.210/.308/.268
"If you condensed everything I ever did in my career into one game, it looks decent"

by Steve Jeltz on Nov 17, 2008 1:27 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

We'll know in THREE MINUTES

zOMG

http://www.thegoodphight.com
WHY CAN'T US?

by WholeCamels on Nov 17, 2008 1:57 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Pujols won

details forthcoming…

http://www.thegoodphight.com
WHY CAN'T US?

by WholeCamels on Nov 17, 2008 2:00 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

top 10

Pujols (369, 18 first place votes)
Howard (308, 12)
Braun (139)
Manny (138)
Berkman (126)
Sabathia (121)
Wright (115)
Lidge (104, 2)
Delgado (96)
Aramis Ramirez (66)

by dajafi on Nov 17, 2008 2:06 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

My only gripe is Utley not making the top 10.

by FuquaManuel on Nov 17, 2008 2:07 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Well, that’s obviously not my ONLY gripe. But it is the BBWAA that we are talking about here…

by FuquaManuel on Nov 17, 2008 2:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Who in the sam hell gave Albert Pujols a 7th place vote? I mean, really?

http://www.thegoodphight.com
WHY CAN'T US?

by WholeCamels on Nov 17, 2008 2:13 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I agree with that. Anyone who didn’t give him the top two (I’d even let a 3rd place sneak in there to lowball), but 7th is outrageous. Utley not making the top 10 is tough, but his slower 2nd half hurt him and if you have 3 people in the top 10 in the MVP voting it kind of dilutes the cases for all three. The right guy won. Utley will have his day.

by chrismchaines on Nov 17, 2008 2:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Albert Pujols is well on his way to being the greatest player of his generation and perhaps one of the top 10 hitters of all time. Mark it down.

Steve Jeltz
.210/.308/.268
"If you condensed everything I ever did in my career into one game, it looks decent"

by Steve Jeltz on Nov 17, 2008 2:20 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

+1. Agreed. Completely.

by chrismchaines on Nov 17, 2008 2:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Keep in mind that he did what he did this year with a partially torn UCL in his right elbow.

http://www.thegoodphight.com
WHY CAN'T US?

by WholeCamels on Nov 17, 2008 2:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

He might be top-10 all-time right now

Pujols has been in the majors for eight seasons, during which he has put up the following 162-game averages:
.334/.425/.624/1.049, 42 HR, 128 RBI.

There are obviously plenty of players who have accumulated more career value, but that’s absurd. That’s not his best season, those are AVERAGES. Mind-boggling.

by phatj on Nov 17, 2008 3:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

It’s easy to forget how insanely good he is. Forget about best season, check out his worst season (by far): .314/.394/.561. He was 22 years old.

by SethC on Nov 17, 2008 4:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Of course, average offensive performance has been high by historical standards throughout Pujols’ career. Still, the point is well-taken.

By way of comparison, Mike Schmidt’s OPS+ for the first eight years of his career (not including his disastrous rookie season) is somewhere around 150-160. Of course Schmidt played a more difficult defensive position but the two are at least on the same level compared to their contemporaries, which is really saying something.

by taco pal on Nov 17, 2008 5:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

This year… I just don’t care about the individual rewards. :)

Bleeding Green Nation - Philadelphia Eagles Blog

by JasonB on Nov 17, 2008 3:13 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Amen.

by chrismchaines on Nov 17, 2008 3:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Chase Utley FTT!

For Who? My teammates.

For What? To Win.

How Much? Where do I sign?

by jonk on Nov 17, 2008 4:54 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Btw, Since 2001 only Barry Bonds, Albert Pujols or a PHILADELPHIA PHILLIE has won the MVP award. We are the breakers of dominance.

For Who? My teammates.

For What? To Win.

How Much? Where do I sign?

by jonk on Nov 17, 2008 4:55 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Saw this on an espn.com message board reacting to Pujols winning the MVP. Reading hard-hitting analysis like this half makes me want to kill myself and half wish I possessed this level of ignorance (so that I could claim Howard was robbed AND actually believe it).

The last time I checked, the goal was to score more runs than the other team. Doesn’t it make sense then, that the player who drove in the most runs should be MVP? Albert Pujols puts up great stats, no doubt. But Ryan Howard put runs on the board, not to mention actually leading his team to the playoffs. MVP doesn’t stand for “Best Player”, it stands for “Most Valuable Player”. How valuable can you be if your team doesn’t even make the postseason?

Steve Jeltz
.210/.308/.268
"If you condensed everything I ever did in my career into one game, it looks decent"

by Steve Jeltz on Nov 17, 2008 6:51 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

The whole ‘make the playoffs’ to win the MVP thing is completely asinine – I’m confused how a great player on a crappy team gets discounted cause the rest of his team is well – crappy – and in Pujols case managed by an egomaniac….ok so the cardinals were Pujols and 24 crappy guys but they weren’t exactly the most talented team in their division….

Peter Gammons is upset that Hanley Ramirez didn’t get much love…

by jemagee on Nov 17, 2008 9:44 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I think the way that they should do it is something using win shares. I saw some NBA thing about it last year, basically it goes:

(how much you contribute to your team’s success) x (number of wins your team has) = some value ‘y’

guy with the biggest ‘y’ wins the award. (I know that whatever the formula would be, it’s a lot more complicated than this)

so basically, if identical players play for teams with 100 and 50 wins, the guy on the 100-win team will win.

the guy in the league who has the most wins should get the award, imho

(by the way, I don’t think it should just be a calculation to decide the winner—I like the voting system. I just think that this is the way people (voters) should be thinking about it.)

by char6587 on Nov 17, 2008 10:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

here’s the article, by the way. does about a 500% better job explaining it than I do. and it’s fun to look at:

http://arbitrarian.wordpress.com/2008/04/25/choosing-the-mvp-geometrically/

by char6587 on Nov 17, 2008 10:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Buzz Bissinger has words for you young man.

The BBWAA is ridiculous – the fact that they have some exclusive ‘hold’ on the awards is asinine – in fact – i think the sabremetician community should get together and start handing out their own awards publicly with lots of stupid fanfare and nonsense.

by jemagee on Nov 17, 2008 10:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

News flash: BBWAA chose Pujols.

Not that I have any particular brief for the BBWAA in general, but the time to get on one’s soapbox about them is when they actually, you know, make a mistake.

by taco pal on Nov 17, 2008 11:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

…like the whole Edinson Volquez disaster that happened 2 seconds ago?

the Internet Baseball Awards have existed for awhile, and they’re usually pretty spot on. not much fanfare, though.

personally, my criticisms of the BBWAA selections have less to do with the actual awards than with the type of thinking they represent, and do everything in their power to bombard us with. when it comes to guys like McCarver, yeah, I have a bone to pick there very specifically, because I want to people to watch playoff baseball with the sound on without losing my sanity, but the awards season is a good time for anti-establishment broadsides.

by bugbear on Nov 18, 2008 1:35 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Eh. Then consider me to be anti-broadside. Portraying this as some kind of cosmic struggle against “the type of thinking they represent” strikes me as paranoia more than anything else. If the BBWAA writers make a lot of mistakes, then there will be plenty of opportunities to criticize them for things they actually do. If there’s a certain wrongheaded philosophy that some people subscribe to, then it can be criticized as a philosophy. Personalizing the debate doesn’t actually accomplish anything other than allowing oneself to indulge one’s own need for outrage.

by taco pal on Nov 18, 2008 12:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

What is the Edinson Volquez disaster?

by FuquaManuel on Nov 18, 2008 4:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I think he got 4th or something in nl ROY voting even though he isn’t a rookie

by char6587 on Nov 18, 2008 5:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Pujols disagrees

He said this in 2006

“I see it this way: Someone who doesn’t take his team to the playoffs doesn’t deserve to win the MVP”

Bleeding Green Nation - Philadelphia Eagles Blog

by JasonB on Nov 18, 2008 2:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

since when does HIS opinion matter?

by char6587 on Nov 18, 2008 5:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

If Chase Utley’s home run power hadn’t almost completely disappeared in the second half, it’d probably be a legitimately close question of “Pujols or Utley”?

Ifs, buts, candy, nuts, etc.

http://www.thegoodphight.com
WHY CAN'T US?

by WholeCamels on Nov 18, 2008 12:29 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Rob Neyer likes Utley – sort of

not so obvious that Pedroia was the American League’s Most Valuable Player. He didn’t do anything that Chase Utley didn’t do, and Utley finished 14th in the National League’s MVP balloting.[/quote]

by jemagee on Nov 18, 2008 8:13 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Pedroia winning this year is an exponentially larger sham than Rollins winning last year and might be a larger sham than if Howard had won this year.

by FuquaManuel on Nov 18, 2008 9:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

how so? Pedroia was legitimately one of the 5 to 10 best players in his league, especially if you restrict it to position players as the voter’s inevitably do and ignore Mariano Rivera, Roy Halladay, and Cliff Lee. No way that’s more of a sham than Howard theoretically winning. Howard would have been one of the worse MVPs ever.

by bugbear on Nov 18, 2008 9:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Say what you will about OPS – it does have its flaws – but I don’t think anyone with an OPS under .900 over the course of a whole season should be considered for the top 5 in the MVP in a league where in any given year the elite handful of players put up OPSes of around .950

Kevin Youkilis would have been the best pick I think.

by FuquaManuel on Nov 18, 2008 10:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I know I reductively used WARP earlier in this thread, but that’s because WARP at least attempts to factor in defense and defensive position. Going with straight OPS, or setting a lower OPS limit, is complete folly, as you’ll end up with a pool of DHs and players in the corner, who need to hit quite a bit more to create the same amount of value. When you’ve got a guy hitting and fielding like Pujols, that disadvantage can be overcome, but Youkilis was not Pujols, and so with guys like Pedroia, Sizemore, and Mauer on the ballot, I don’t see a case for him.

by bugbear on Nov 19, 2008 3:01 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, that pretty much says it. Looking at OPS without taking position into account is bad analysis. I believe Pedroia’s VORP was higher than Youkilis’, for what it’s worth.

by taco pal on Nov 19, 2008 11:21 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs