Phils Trade Golson to Texas

by dajafi on Nov 20, 2008 6:32 PM EST

While Phillie-land obsesses over Chase Utley's surgery, the Phils and Texas Rangers exchanged former first-round picks today. Scott Lauber reports:

Ordinarily, I'd do a separate entry about this, but I don't want to distract from the Utley conversation. So, here goes: In a swap of former first-round picks, the Phillies have dealt outfield prospect Greg Golson to the Rangers for outfield prospect John Mayberry. Mayberry, 24, split the 2008 season between double-A Frisco and triple-A Oklahoma and hit a combined .264 with 38 doubles, 20 home runs, 71 RBIs and 10 steals in 135 games. Golson, 23, batted .282 with 13 home runs, 60 RBIs and 23 steals at double-A Reading. According to Amaro, the Phillies preferred Mayberry's power to Golson's speed.

Very interesting first trade for GM Ruben Amaro Jr. Golson always represented something of a lottery ticket, in that his prodigious physical gifts might or might not one day translate to on-field production. The Texas native did make some progress as he climbed the minor-league ladder, doing some of his best work at Reading this season before a September call-up to the Phils, but his pitch recognition never really improved, his walk rate remained lousy, and he looked painfully overmatched in his few big-league at-bats.

I don't know much about Mayberry, other than that he's the son of a former big-leaguer. Here are his minor-league stats. One possibility is that he'll be the righty half of the left-field platoon that replaces Pat Burrell; in 2008 between AA and AAA, he put up a fairly rockin' .357/.398/.696 line in 115 at-bats against left-handed pitchers.

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I like this

Basically flipping our guy with potential for their guy with potential. Mayberry also turned down first round pick money as a HSer to go play at… Stanford. Ruben Amaro’s alma mater? Stanford. Hmmm….

Who sees Mike Mussina replacing Jamie Moyer?

by DanT on Nov 20, 2008 6:57 PM EST 0 recs

I think I like it too. Didn’t know he was from Stanford… he’ll have a lot to talk about with Michael Taylor and/or Eric Bruntlett.

by dajafi on Nov 20, 2008 7:03 PM EST up 0 recs

anyone think this is a attempt to have a replacement for Pat Burrell is he leaves???

Fire the Fat One
Fire Andy Reid

by XxBleedGreen5xX on Nov 21, 2008 7:50 AM EST up 0 recs

Hmm. I guess I like it too, though my inner Philly-ness is now filled with dread that Golson will suddenly put it all together now that he’s gone.

While the Golson pick was most likely a bad decision in any objective sense, I’ve been a semi-defender of Golson over the years just because I think some of the criticism has been excessive. I still doubt that he’ll ever become anything. But he does have a couple of things going for him:

1. He improves over time. dajafi, even his walk rate, while still not good, has gotten better. Last year he had 34 BB in 426 AB at Reading. That’s bad but it’s a clear improvement over the unimaginably bad walk totals he’d put up at lower levels of the minors. What’s more, he also improved his walk rate within the course of the season. In July and August, he had 20 BB in 175 AB. I know, small sample size, but it’s not nothing either.

He did look terrible during his late-season call-up to the majors. Then again, he looked equally terrible during his late-season call-up to AA in 2007 when he went .242/.255/.359 in 153 AB. A lot of people around here were writing him off one year ago based on those post-callup numbers, but he went back to AA and improved significantly. So I don’t think it’s impossible for him to do the same thing in the majors someday (although definitely not next year).

2. By all press accounts I’ve read, he’s a very mature kid and a hard worker. Obviously, that’s all subjective. But if it’s true, that’s half the battle right there.

by taco pal on Nov 20, 2008 7:34 PM EST 0 recs

Greg Golson appears to be Michael Bourn re-incarnated.

He’s very fast, but doesn’t appear to have any other skills. I’m fine with this, but it might also be another nail in Burrell’s coffin.

by Bilzo on Nov 20, 2008 8:52 PM EST 0 recs

Golson also has ridiculous raw power and terrible plate discipline, whereas Bourn showed terrific plate discipline (in the minors, at least).

http://www.thegoodphight.com
WHY CAN'T US?

by WholeCamels on Nov 20, 2008 9:21 PM EST up 0 recs

Right, and Bourn has no raw power whatsoever.

It really bothers me when people equate those two guys with one another. The only similarities between them are that they’re fast and black. Not all fast black guys are the same.

by taco pal on Nov 20, 2008 9:39 PM EST up 0 recs

Next thing you know you’ll be saying Jason Marquis and Sandy Koufax aren’t virtually the same pitcher!

http://www.thegoodphight.com
WHY CAN'T US?

by WholeCamels on Nov 20, 2008 10:03 PM EST up 0 recs

Haha. Well the Phillies would certainly be sensitive enough not to make that mistake, seeing as how we have a Jewish GM.

by taco pal on Nov 20, 2008 10:08 PM EST up 0 recs

I remember several years ago hearing a national broadcaster comment on how much Shawn Green looks like Sandy Koufax. I mean, really. He was on the Dodgers at the time, so maybe that was the reason?

http://www.thegoodphight.com
WHY CAN'T US?

by WholeCamels on Nov 21, 2008 10:03 AM EST up 0 recs

Seriously, it’s like how every white American small forward (sometimes even power forward) gets compared to Larry Bird, no matter what. How many Next Larry Birds have their been in our lifetimes? Kevin Love, Adam Morrison, Keith Van Horn…

by taco pal on Nov 20, 2008 10:10 PM EST up 0 recs

I saw no evidence of Golson hitting for power while he was up (granted it was a short audition). I’ve seen Bourn put the ball out of the park.

Sorry….but I lump the two together. They fit the same mold. It’s no b/c they’re black, it’s because they’re fast and can’t do much else.

by Bilzo on Nov 21, 2008 8:15 AM EST up 0 recs

Well, just to give you some more info, Golson has pretty much all the tools (yuck I hate saying that) that make an elite ballplayer including one of the best outfield arms in professional baseball, his sole sticking point thusfar has been plate discipline, which is extremely hard to teach and, at 23 years old, time is quickly running out. “Great except for plate discipline” is kind of an “apart from that, how was the play, Mrs. Lincoln?” type of comment.

Here are his minor league stats.

He’s from Texas so maybe the trade to his home base will do his heart good. I wish him well.

http://www.thegoodphight.com
WHY CAN'T US?

by WholeCamels on Nov 21, 2008 10:02 AM EST up 0 recs

I’ve got nothing against Golson…I hope he does well too, but unless he turns superstar for a couple years I’m not going to regret this trade.

by Bilzo on Nov 21, 2008 10:38 AM EST up 0 recs

I think the window has really closed on him being a “superstar.” Last year I think his realistic absolute ceiling was Devon White. Now I’m thinking Corey Patterson.

http://www.thegoodphight.com
WHY CAN'T US?

by WholeCamels on Nov 21, 2008 10:41 AM EST up 0 recs

Come on, man. You can’t possibly think that’s a reasonable analysis.

Michael Bourn has 22 home runs in his entire professional career. Not major league career – his professional career, majors + minors, in over 2400 plate appearances. Even if you were to throw in his aluminum-bat college stats, that would bring you to 25 homers in something like 3100 plate appearances.

Golson, in contrast, has twice as many homers in fewer plate appearances.

Meanwhile, Bourn has GREAT plate discipline. In the minors, he walked 227 times in about 1800 PAs. He didn’t walk much last year for Houston, but that’s because he couldn’t hit and so pitchers were just throwing him strike after strike, not because he can’t tell a ball from a strike. Golson’s difficulty with pitch selection, in contrast, is well documented.

I mean, these guys don’t even LOOK that similar, other than their race. While their overall dimensions might be comparable, Bourn is a wispy-looking guy and Golson is a wiry strong kid who hasn’t filled out yet.

by taco pal on Nov 21, 2008 11:26 AM EST up 0 recs

hitting 13 HR in AA over a full season isn’t really all that impressive to me. When comparing power numbers, if one guy hits 10 in a season and one hits 5, that’s roughly the same, because neither is impressive, especially from an OF position.

I wish there were a speedy white guy who has no other skills who was in the organization over the last 5 years that I could compare him to but there’s not. So I’ll continue to equate him to Michael Bourn.

by Bilzo on Nov 21, 2008 3:35 PM EST up 0 recs

(banging head against wall)

Bourn’s plate discipline was outstanding; Golson’s is terrible. That’s one HUGE difference between them, that renders any type of tit-for-tat comparison worthless.

Further, the assessment of Golson’s power comes in large part from scouts. His physical strength that may or may not ever manifest itself in his stats. Golson has it, and he may “put it together” and hit a ton of homers somewhere, someday; Bourn doesn’t, and won’t.

Golson is fast but gets bad reads on flyballs, but has a cannon arm. Bourn is a smooth fielder with a relatively weak arm.

They could hardly be more different as players, but if you want to keep “equating” them, go right ahead.

http://www.thegoodphight.com
WHY CAN'T US?

by WholeCamels on Nov 21, 2008 4:16 PM EST up 0 recs

Bourn’s plate discipline was outstanding

A guy with a career MLB OBP or 0.299 has outstanding plate discipline?
Are you serious?
(laughing at you banging your head against wall)

by Bilzo on Nov 21, 2008 4:20 PM EST up 0 recs

Please explain why those two things are mutually exclusive.

by taco pal on Nov 21, 2008 5:04 PM EST up 0 recs

Let me spell it out for you

A .299 OBP is terrible. But with a .237 batting average, for a guy with virtually zero power, it’s actually indicative of good plate discipline. A guy who basically can’t hit at all has to have good plate discipline to draw any walks, because pitchers can basically pump fastball after fastball to him without fear that he’s going to hurt them.

Look at the progression of his IsoD in the minors:
2003 (Batavia, age 20): .112
2004 (Lakewood): .117
2005 (Reading): .080
2006 (Reading & SWB): .079

This is consistent with what you would expect from a guy with good discipline but who basically can’t hit a lick. As he moves up and sees better pitching, his walks decrease since the pitchers aren’t bailing him out as much.

by phatj on Nov 21, 2008 8:13 PM EST up 0 recs

Ok, well I think the point has been more than made by now. The only other thing I’ll add here is that it wasn’t “over a full season,” as Golson missed a month with a wrist injury.

I don’t see what’s so bad about Golson’s power numbers considering his age, his trend lines, his body type, and what scouts have said about him. It might interest you to know that at the same age and with a major college pedigree, Chase Utley hit 16 home runs in Single-A in over 500 plate appearances (bigger ballparks down there in Florida, but still). In the still-likely event that Golson doesn’t make it as a major leaguer, it won’t be because he “has no skills” or is the “re-incarnation of Michael Bourn” in the power department. I mean, those are just ludicrous claims to make. If he fails, it’ll be for other reasons.

by taco pal on Nov 21, 2008 4:59 PM EST up 0 recs

BBTiA article on Mayberry

http://www.bbtia.com/home/2008/7/6/a-closer-look-at-junior-mayberry.html

Michael Main Interview

by jparks77 on Nov 20, 2008 9:08 PM EST 0 recs

thanks

Solid analysis that lists valid concerns.

My hope with Mayberry is that someone made a determination that he’s the sort of hitter—raw ability, good build, not really a finished product despite age and pedigree—whom Manuel and Thompson can mold. It seems like a reasonable bet, and he does fit the current organizational need better than Golson, who profiles as something like “Shane Victorino with more raw power, (even) less patience and worse routes to balls in the OF.”

by dajafi on Nov 21, 2008 12:23 PM EST up 0 recs