Well if this is the first move of the Amaro administration, I’m thrilled, let me tell ya, to me it’s an asinine move not to offer him arbitration…

I assume you’re referring to this blog entry from Zolecki. He wrote:

It is less likely that the Phillies offer Burrell arbitration, especially if they are confident they can find a better alternative in left field (they already have expressed interest in free agents Raul Ibanez and Rocco Baldelli), but it could happen. The risk in offering arbitration to Burrell is that if he accepted, he would be signed for 2009 and likely would receive a raise from the $14 million he made this year. The Phils might not want to commit that much to Burrell, even for one season, because it could prevent them from pursuing other free agents. By not offering Burrell arbitration, the Phillies can continue to talk to Ibanez, Baldelli, and other teams about potential trades without the risk of him accepting. And it’s important to note that even if the Phillies don’t offer Burrell arbitration it doesn’t mean they can’t continue to talk with him and eventually re-sign him. They can.

Let’s break this down a little bit.

The concern is that if Pat accepted arbitration, they’d have to pay Burrell, say, $16 million for one year, and that this would preclude them from signing Raul Ibanez or Rocco Baldelli. I think it’s very likely that both of those guys will be offered arbitration, because Seattle and Tampa would want the draft picks—the Mariners because they stink, and the rays because they’re a smart organization that already built a pennant winner through the draft.

Ibanez is a lefty hitter who’s a few years older than Burrell… sort of a less rapidly declining Geoff Jenkins. He’ll probably require at least three years—maybe two plus an option—for about $12-13 million per. So you’d be obligating more total money, making your team even more left-handed, and giving up your unprotected first-round draft pick.

Baldelli is a righty and younger, but he has serious, chronic health issues and is sort of the anti-Burrell when it comes to drawing walks. He’d be cheaper than Ibanez, but also is likely a part-time player unless and until science produces a miracle cure for his illness. He’d cost a draft pick too.

Perhaps there are trade possibilities Amaro could pursue, or is pursuing. But none immediately come to mind, and the only semi-interesting rumor I’ve heard is for underachieving Marlins OF Jeremy Hermida—another lefty, alas.

What drives me crazy about this is the fact that re-signing Burrell, even for as much as $16 million for one year, should be the goal. The concern isn’t the money, or shouldn’t be—especially after winning the title. The concern is the years. You don’t want to worry about Pat’s age-35 season. But getting his age-32 year, even at a higher price, with no further commitment and without losing a pick, is arguably the best outcome.

I’m not sure I buy this claim from Zolecki. Ken Mandel on Phillies.com writes "Burrell, Moyer likely to get offers:

http://philadelphia.phillies.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20081128&content_id=3695472&vkey=news_phi&fext=.jsp&c_id=phi

I think this is just Zolecki speculating.

The part that Zolecki (and hopefully not Amaro) might be missing is that Burrell at 1-year $16MM is very tradeable. They could easily get rid of him in a heartbeat if indeed they did not want him at that offer, and could probably get something in return too.

If Burrell’s goal was money, he’d also be an idiot to accept arbitration. He could do far better on the free agent market.

That Zolecki piece is what spurred me into writing this little tirade, but I have heard that rumor elsewhere as well, from both Rosenthal and Stark I believe. Also, one of the mlbtraderumors guys mentioned it. Oh well, lets hope for the best.

This would be monumentally stupid. Like, beyond anything comprehendable. On a side note, interesting to see how backloaded contracts can come back and bite you in these instances. Had Burrell just averaged like 9.5 mil a season (or whatever) his arb number would be like 10.5 or something more reasonable.

here’s a pretty good explanation of how this whole thing works for those, like myself, who aren’t so clear:

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20081129&content_id=3695771&vkey=hotstove2008&fext=.jsp

Beerleaguer relays some rather worrying quotes from a Ruben Amaro interview on WIP — basically, that now is no time for “sentimental” choices. I agree completely… if by “sentimental” you mean “asinine.” And asinine is exactly what not offering arbitration to Burrell would be.

Just over three hours till we find out…

So – the first move in the ruben amaro era may demonstrate that he doesn’t know his head from his ass or the meaning of sentimentality?

Serously – this is just a stupid ass idea to even consider – he’s a type A free agent – it’s one freaking year if he doesn’t sign with someone else – and you won’t find anyone BETTER for just that one year who you won’t have to over pay for the rest of the years….you’ve got pitching issues, youve got second base issues, your catcher and 3rd baseman still suck…you’ve got other problems to worry about – i’m sorry but this is a win win for the phils if they offer arbitration – and it’s not sentimentality to me – it’s common sense

besides which – don’t most fans still hate pat?

/twitching nervously