Cost of Matt Holliday
by Clyde Simmons on Nov 6, 2008 10:16 AM EST
50 comments
Its no secret the Rockies have been shopping him for some time, knowing they will probably be outbid by a higher market team after 2009. My question is, what do you think the cost of Matt Holliday is? He would pretty much replace Burrell in the line up, and he plays a better left field (he was second in the NL among LF's for outfield assists).
I know everyone is high on Burrell (and he seems to want to come back to philly), but he seems like a better fit as a DH to me.
We have some intresting trade prospects, such as Jason Jarmillo (spelling?), Golson (I would be thrilled to get rid of him, he is a strike out machine), a wealth of young pitching (Happ, Kendrick, Carrasco), that I think gives us the opportunity to let one go for a really good player...like Holliday.
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Holliday’s home/away splits are scary (although admittedly less so in 2008 than before), his perceived value is extremely high, we’d have to give up a boatload to get rid of him AND his salary will be costly. We’d be better off resigning Burrell for three years, getting comparable production without giving up lots of talent in return.
http://www.thegoodphight.com
WHY CAN'T US?
That Holliday is under contract for only one year depresses his value. Maybe one of the Marson/Carrasco/Donald/Taylor group, plus a second-tier prospect like Edgar Garcia and a throw-in like Jaramillo, would do it. But with Boras as his agent, I’m not sure I’d even want to go down that road.
Please don’t trade Lou Marson – lou marson is the hope – he is the future – he is the best chance we have at eliminating one half of the worst 7/8 combination in the national league, DO NOT TRADE MARSOn – do you hear me? I"m not kidding.
by jemagee on Nov 6, 2008 11:50 AM EST reply actions
I was under the impression that most thought Marson was a very good prospect
Who is John Sickels and why should I care what he thinks over the rest of the pro marson folks?
by jemagee on Nov 6, 2008 12:22 PM EST up reply actions
Sickels is probably one of the best-known prospect analysts in the country. He was with ESPN.com back in the ‘90s when its most prominent baseball writers were him, Rob Neyer, and David Schoenfeld, and was seen something of a stathead haven. He’s currently on his own at www.minorleagueball.com, which is an SB Nation blog like this one.
I know that Marson is highly thought of among people who follow the Phillies, including both the statistically inclined at the non-statistically inclined, but I don’t think I’ve seen a lot of press about him one way or the other from people outside of Philadelphia. Sickels’ opinion is useful because he’s objective. Obviously the flipside is that he doesn’t follow Marson all that closely since he has to follow the entire minor leagues and amateur ball.
Not just people who ‘follow the phillies’ – i’ve read praise for marson from ‘independent’ sources as well…
by jemagee on Nov 6, 2008 2:52 PM EST up reply actions
Lou Marson should be on opening day roster next year. At the very least, they will be competing for spots.
I personally would give Happ/Kendrick, Marson, and Golson for Holliday in a heartbeat if we negotiated a contract pre-trade. You would of course have the bargining chip that he could make more this year. Scott Boras is an Ass though. I hate him with a passion.
The thing about Marson to me is you already have Ruiz, one of the best defensive catcher in the league, ahead of him. Ruiz has spent alot of time to develop relationships with the current pitching staff, and so I would consider Marson at best a backup that started whenever Blanton or Myers pitched. Hamels, Lidge and Moyer have all said they Ruiz makes them better pitchers and they feel comfortable throwing balls in the dirt with Ruiz behind home plate.
happ kendrick golson sure but, marson is a stud catching prospect and only 23 years old. I would be more likely to give up Jason Donald considering that he is a shortstop and would have to play a new position with Rollins blocking his path right now. As far as Ruiz other than a hot streak in the playoffs he is a miserable offensive player, the game 3 dribbler/winner is a ball that he has hit in to double plays with all year. He hits the ball 2 feet in front of him more than anyone I have ever seen. As far as defensively, he does not throw out runners well at all and many times his throws are short hopped into second or third base. Ruiz should split time with Marson next year and be the backup altogether in 2010 if Marson hits the way he should. If a catcher misses a ball in the dirt 5-10 extra times a year but, hits 80 points higher, which is more valuable?
Carlos had 96 at bats with force outs already on base. I don’t know how many times there were already 2 outs in this situation. He hit into an astonishing 14 double plays in those situations. even if 75 of those chances had 1 or 0 outs he hit into a double play a minimum of 20% of the time with men on and hits almost nothing but groundballs.
Lou Marson had one good season in AA and you think he should be starting ahead of Ruiz? Ruiz is young as well, and has more power than Marson. Marson shows good plate Disipline, but I don’t think that makes him a major league starter in a year. If we don’t trade him I hope he proves me wrong, but I still think he is possible trade bait for the right player.
by Clyde Simmons on Nov 6, 2008 1:57 PM EST up reply actions
I’m fairly confident that Marson will hit for a lot more power in the bigs than Ruiz. He’s just 22, the doubles are there already, and he’s going to fill out some more. And his defense is reportedly excellent.
That said, Ruiz is a better hitter than he showed in 2008, and his defense really is good. The Phils have some interesting choices; their best option might be to start Marson at AAA, let him build more value, and deal one or the other at the deadline next summer.
Given that Travis D’Arnaud looks like a stud prospect as well, it could work out that he’s ready just as Ruiz gets more expensive than he’s worth, or starts to decline (he’s older than you’d expect for a guy with fairly little service time).
If you want to trade Lou Marson – don’t trade him to colorado with a package of other prospects for a guy you might not have for more than a year or a guy you’ll SURELY have to over pay to keep more than one year.
There’s this team in new england with a rather deep extensive minor league system that’s barren at one very key position (sure letting amaro deal with theo would make me uneasy like the only sorority girl at a frat toga party, but you never know)…i’m not saying don’t trade lou marson – but the phils supposedly have some depth at catcher in their system and the red sox very good system is BARREN at catcher but much deeper in other places (where the phils system isn’t cause it’s pretty shallow almost everywhere).
The yanks as well need a catcher….but their system isn’t as nice as the red sox
Keep in mind that while the phils do have some nice catching prospects i believe texas has multple drool worthy catching prospects (based on my readings of espn chats from guys like callis/neyer/etc…)
by jemagee on Nov 6, 2008 2:55 PM EST reply actions
So what your saying is trade Marson straight up for Jason Bay? I like it.
Just foolin don’t freak out.
by Clyde Simmons on Nov 6, 2008 4:12 PM EST up reply actions
or we could just sell the rights to negotiate with Marson to the highest bidder. If both the Yanks and the Sox need a catcher prospect, I am sure we can get at least 53 million.
Sorry…bad joke on the whole Matsuzaka thing.
by Clyde Simmons on Nov 6, 2008 4:25 PM EST up reply actions
The rangers have better (and more) catching prospects but my basic point was don’t group all your top tier prospects for one year of a guy who seems the definition of the ‘inflation’ thanks to being a rockie…who will cost way too much to sign.
Already over paid for cupcakes (damn it people, he had a couple good games, not a great career), don’t repeat same mistake when you’ve lost probably the best scouting mind your franchise had because you passed him over for promotion
by jemagee on Nov 6, 2008 5:04 PM EST reply actions
Victorino for Holliday
Assume you all saw this, but Heyman is reporting on SI that Phils are going hard after Holliday and they want Vic, with Marson, Donald and Carrasco also being discussed. Can’t imagine they are seriously considering Victorino but I would have to guess it is going to take a prospect of the caliber of one of these guys (and not a Kendrick or Jamarillo) to get Holliday, even for a year.
Zolecki, who I think is pretty reliable and well connected, has thrown cold water on this.
Posted by Todd Zolecki 08:48 AM, 11/07/2008
It sounds like the Phillies aren’t as aggressive pursuers as SI.com has suggested. Unless the asking price drops — a lot — I don’t think Matt Holliday is coming here.
Victorinos trade value will never be higher (or more over valued) than it is right now – if it’s a straight up deal – sure why not – if it costs more than Victorino not sure I’d do it
by jemagee on Nov 6, 2008 6:16 PM EST reply actions
i just don’t see the point of trading Victorino for Holliday. In my mind getting Holliday would be getting Burrell’s replacement. I don’t forsee us resigning Pat and then taking on whatever un-Godly 3 or 4 year contract we’d be giving to Holliday…
In that instance, why would we loose Pat and then trade away Vic?
World F*ckin' Champions, indeed...
Holliday may not hit .350 but he will hit .300+ with 30 homers and 100 rbi. I love Pat and would like him back but, if that is not an option then I would do this trade with Werth over Victorino.
okay, but my point is that even if you did that, you’re still an outfielder short…
World F*ckin' Champions, indeed...
Not to mention the fact that there’s a fair chance he wouldn’t even get there anyway. Holliday’s combined counting stats on the road for 2007 and 2008: 21 HR and 84 RBI in 605 AB. (BA is around .320 although that’s technically not a counting stat.) Obviously those figures are depressed since Holliday plays a number of road games in the three California parks. But still, that’s not even all that close to 30/100 and if CBP still plays as a neutral park next year…
I would rather pay someone else personally. I like our top prospects and think a few of them are ready to plug in right away. There is a reason Lou Marson was kept around the club during the playoffs while Donald was sent to the AFL. They want this guy to be our catcher now. I am worried though that if Victorino is traded that Golson will become out centerfielder or right fielder and his bat just isnt ready.
from Keith Law yesterday
Joe (Raleigh): Keith, From what I’ve heard, Jason Donald was exceptional in the AFL. Did you see him play? Does he have a future in Philly?
SportsNation Keith Law: He could play 3b for them every day next year and probably give them above-average defense, but less bat than you want at the spot. That means that he may have more value to them in trade to a club that needs a ss or 2b. If I’m Ruben Amaro, that’s the guy I’m using to fill whatever needs I decide I have (another starter would be nice).
That doesn’t make sense to me. The question isn’t so much whether Donald has “less bat than you want”, but whether he has less bat than the available alternatives. Third base really isn’t a premier offensive position in major league baseball these days. If Donald can even break .750 OPS, that would immediately put him in the middle tier and ahead of Pedro Feliz. There’s nobody better in the system and anybody better from outside the organization would likely come at a high cost (certainly a lot higher than Donald, who’s free).
I think his point is that objectively, the value of a middle infielder with Donald’s skills is greater than the same infielder playing 3rd base. Thus, if a team theoretically had a prospect who could only play 3B, but play it a lot better than Donald, trading them straight up for one another would be better than just playing Donald at 3B. Donald playing at 3B inherently reduces the value the team can extract from him, because of positional scarcity.
That said, who knows if there is a team out there with a prospect that fills a hole for us, is of equal value, is willing to give up that prospect, and needs a player like Donald? It isn’t necessarily all that likely, so you’re probably right that it’s better to play Donald at 3B next year. If he really can play an above average 3B, and give us an OBP of .350, he’d be welcome relief (though of course Feliz will always have a special, Happy place in all of our hearts)
Well that’s true in principle, if that’s what he meant. If we were in a situation where we had openings at both SS and 3B, then you would definitely want to keep Donald at short and find a replacement-level 3B rather than vice versa. But I also agree with you that in our situation, we’re not likely to find a deal that perfectly fits the parameters you set out.
I would actually keep Pete at 3B this year since a. we have to pay him anyway, b. while Donald by most reports seems to have the ability to play 3B, I don’t think he’s actually learned the position yet, and c. Donald hasn’t hit against AAA pitching yet and it would probably be better for him to move him one step at a time. But definitely, we should plan on starting Donald at 3B on Opening Day 2010.
Here’s John Sickels on Donald, by the way:
Jason Donald, SS, Philadelphia Phillies: Looks pretty good with the bat, as expected. I focused more on his defense. He clearly has the arm strength for shortstop, but I thought his range was very marginal, especially to his right. I think he is best off at second base. He could likely play third just fine but might not have enough power for that position. Don’t see how he fits into a Phillies lineup, so either trade bait or super-utility may be his role.
Again, how much power do you actually need? The median among MLB 3B is probably in the high teens somewhere. And if his overall offensive stats are solid by 3B standards, why should it matter how he gets them?
Given the fact that Holliday is going ot be a FA after this year I would not give them Victorino, I would not give them Marson nor would I give them Carassco, Which probably means no deal but my offer would not go beyond something like Jason Werth who is a FA after this year and a guy like Happ and maybe a C level prospect like Jaramillo. Which won’t get it done but that is about all I would be willing to deal. We are better off breaking the bank and signing Burrell to a 5yr 75 mill deal and keeping the prospects than giving up Two Top Prospects for a one year rental and that is all Holiday will be
If you trade Vic for Holliday, you eliminate all the OF speed. Vic covers a lot of ground out there. I know Werth is fast, but he’s not exceptionally fast, and the few games I saw him play CF, he was bad. Trading Victorino means no CFer. Golson is just not ready. He appears to be a Michael Bourn clone. Awesome speed, but can’t steal first base.
I’d love to see Burrell back, even though I realize that he’s on the decline. So few players do a whole career in one city…I thought Burrell might be one of those guys. I realize that’s hope and not reality though.
If Burrell doesn’t get re-signed, you have to get something for LF. It is a true power position. Ever notice how there’s no really good fielders playing LF? It’s because defense out there can be forgiven for a good bat. If we let Burrell walk and sign Adam Dunn, that’d be fine, but it wouldn’t be saving any money.
They have appearently had races and Werth is the fastest guy on the team.
by Clyde Simmons on Nov 10, 2008 2:00 PM EST up reply actions
Golson and Bourn are both very fast, but otherwise they’re really not very similar. Golson has power and the potential to develop more, Bourn does not. Bourn consistently displayed good strike zone judgment throughout his minor league career, Golson has not.
Rumor has it that the cars are the leaders to get Holliday centered around Ryan Ludwick – who I don’t think is the equivalent of Victorino.
by jemagee on Nov 9, 2008 11:02 AM EST reply actions
why couldn’t you tell me that when I asked last week….fool.
by Clyde Simmons on Nov 11, 2008 1:43 PM EST up reply actions
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