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A Rant on LH Splits, Rotoworld, and Ibanez

here is what rotoworld said about the ibanez signing...
 
Phillies signed outfielder Raul Ibanez, who had been with the Mariners, to a a three-year, $31.5 million contract.

Ibanez at $31.5 million wouldn't have been completely unreasonable for a team with a hole at first base or DH that needed a left-handed bat for the middle of the order. The Phillies, though, hardly fit that description. Say what you will about Pat Burrell's streakiness, but the numbers were usually there in the end and the team did just win a World Series with him batting behind Ryan Howard. Now the Phillies have gone and replaced him with someone older, just as expensive and at least as poor defensively. Plus, Ibanez is left-handed, which will give managers plenty of easy calls in how to approach the middle of the lineup any time after the fifth inning. If new GM Ruben Amaro Jr. is just going to sign the guys he likes, regardless of how they fit in with his team, then playing into October won't become a habit for the Phillies.

Star-divide


Now I usually agree with rotoworld's analysis - and I agree with the defense and age thing and I honestly don't like the signing that much.

However, like I mentioned to Julie before, I don't understand the problem with the left handed thing.  First off, there is no reason Manuel has to has to put Utley, Howard, Ibanez in the 345 slots.  There have been analyzes done that have shown that lineup order does not have a significant impact on total run scores.  You can throw Werth, Rollins, Victorino (or even feliz) in between any of those three guys..and you're fine.  Honestly you could bat Utley 1st, and it's quite possible the team scores more runs (highest OBP). Lineup order is just something that baseball geeks like to argue about for fun, but it's really pretty fruitless.
 
-Another point...Ibanez hit .305, with a .869 OPS against left handing pitching last year, while over his whole career he drops his OPS by 100 points when hitting lefties.  The rotoworld blurb and other articles from the "experts" would make you think that utley, howard, and ibanez suddenly become automatic outs against lefties.  You would also think from the blurb that there was a limit to the # of bullpen changes a team can make.
 
Finally - they are going to remove ibanez for a defensive replacement like they did for burrell. So even if for some reason they really believe that lefties (like Ibanez) can't hit LOGGYs nonsense, then they can put in a pitch-hitter in the 8th. However it's doubtful that pitch hitter will be able to hit a lefty as well as Ibanez (who should have a .750-.800 OPS against them next year).

Honestly if Ibanez  was the same person - but right handed, I would project the Phils to score a few more runs (though not enough to project an extra win). To make a statement like this: "If new GM Ruben Amaro Jr. is just going to sign the guys he likes, regardless of how they fit in with his team, then playing into October won't become a habit for the Phillies.", over a few potiential lost runs is just foolish.  When a GM starts making decisions based on insignificant factors like what side he fits from is when lose their jobs and become sports writers.
 
-end rant

If someone could point to me some statistical analysis that shows that lineup order or that having a larger amount of LH hitters signficantly matters it would be appreciated.

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I hear you, but I think the criticism is about opportunity cost as much as anything else. Finding a guy like Ibanez who is right-handed wouldn’t have been very hard. In fact, we had one. He wore #5.

Your point does underscore the glaring need for a decent righty bat off the bench, though—ideally one who can play outfield. Eric Bruntlett doesn’t cut it. John Mayberry Jr. might, or might not… but they have no place for him at the moment. I wonder if a trade of Jenkins (presumably for nothing) or Stairs isn’t likely before the end of spring training.

by dajafi on Dec 17, 2008 12:27 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

rocco?

http://www.abc6.com/sports/36277274.html

so apparently he DOESNT have that mitochondrial disorder and this new one IS treatable.

he’d be a nice upgrade over jenkins, I think.

by char6587 on Dec 17, 2008 12:46 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I don’t really look at a news source as reputable when it’s written in all caps.

Broad And Pattison - A Philadelphia Flyers Blog
Because the Broad Street Subway is orange for a reason.

by Travis Hughes on Dec 17, 2008 7:10 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Ibanez vs. Howard

I don’t know why you automatically assume we need pitch hit/def replace Ibanez. Honestly, do we need to pinch hit late in games for Ibanez or Howard against lefties?

Both are know for having pretty poor defense, so that’s probably a wash. However isn’t 1st base a more premium defensive position? So maybe the defense aspect leans towards finding a defensive replacement for howard.

Last year against lefties
Howard: .224/.294/.746
Ibanez: .305/.371/.869

Career:
Howard: .231/.318/.786
Ibanez: .268/.323/.734

While Ibanez did much better last year, we’ll chalk that up as a fluke and call them even. I think Amaro should base it off of who he can the get the best deal from, not forcing him to find a backup hitter that plays good defense and hits lefties well (which must be limited).

I don’t know much about his defense but Rich Aurilia hit .305/.354/.899 the last three years against lefties. Maybe he can even help at 2B at beginning of the year if need be?

by dbeach13 on Dec 17, 2008 5:03 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

So – the phillies pulled pat burrell for ‘defensive reasons’ ridiculously often and stupidly and somehow that method will change because of Raul Ibanez?

I doubt it highly

by jemagee on Dec 17, 2008 9:59 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

yeah

unless they think Ibanez is a much better defender than Burrell for some reason (which has been mentioned by buster onley i think)

by dbeach13 on Dec 17, 2008 10:11 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

But if they think that wouldn’t that make them dumber than an organization that would hire George Constanza?

by jemagee on Dec 18, 2008 10:23 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

hold on a second

it’s true that statistical analyses of lineup analysis have shown that the effect of batting order on run scoring is overblown— protecting a hitter is detrimental in as many ways as it helpful, and is a small effect. it mostly says that doing things like switching you’re 5 and 6 hitters won’t have a significant effect on your run scoring for the most part. my personal research shows this to be highly questionable (among other things, there is a decided negative correlation between the rate that pitchers throw fastballs to you and improved hitting, so pitchers clearly do adjust strategies in real ways, so i don’t see how that wouldn’t imply lineup order matters at some level even if not in a way that statistical significance would be observable in a small dataset).

HOWEVER, hitters CLEARLY do hit differently based on whether they are FACING a lefty or a righty!!! look at my analysis on the front page. utley sees 10% more lefties than non-howard other phillies, and hits for 50 points lower OPS against them. burrell has a larger split and saw a far more normal lefty/righty distribution last season. the reason was batting order. it clearly matters. it might only affect 1 or 2 games a season but how often has 1 or 2 games been the difference for us in the last few years?

by Matt Swartz on Dec 17, 2008 1:14 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

how often has 1 or 2 games been the difference for us in the last few years?

too many times… some for the better, some not.

But T.O. and his sideline histrionics wear on a quarterback. He's like the hot stripper you tried to clean up and convert into a real girlfriend. It's a lot of fun until the moment she has her second drink while out to eat with your parents. You unravel quicker than she does.

by foos05 on Dec 17, 2008 7:58 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, dbeach is confusing two different issues here. On the other hand, I do think some people may be overemphasizing Ibanez’s lefthandedness to a degree. Some of those criticisms, the way they’re stated, seem to value the end of the game over the beginning of the game. Ibanez’s presence might hurt us late against lefty specialists, but if he can make up for it in the vast majority of his PAs in which he’ll be facing righties, then it won’t matter so much. What matters, as always, is the overall performance.

Lineup imbalance could have an effect by forcing Ibanez (and possibly Howard, though probably not) to face more lefties than he’d otherwise face. But if that’s true it will show up in the overall stats. Ibanez batted two behind Ichiro with a non-threatening hitter between them last year, so his Seattle stats might already incorporate a disportionate tendency to face lefties.

Anyway, I don’t know that we can definitively say Ibanez will cost us 1-2 games next year. 1-2 games from what? From what we would have if Ibanez were a righthanded or switch hitter? Or from Burrell?

by taco pal on Dec 17, 2008 11:24 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

yeah

the two points i kind of had in my rant were:
1. Batting lineup does not statistically matter
2. Basing a personal decision on an insignificant variable like LH/RH splits is silly

you’re also both assuming that Ibanez will hit worse against lefties than rightes last year, which was that not true for 2008. He hit .305/.371/.869 against LHP last year, much better than what he did against RHP. So really if teams in the American League made bullpen decisions based on Ibanez’s career splits last year, it would have backfired on them.

Also – just because we were in close pennant races the last few years – doesn’t give the GM the right to make decisions based on minor variables that will only affect the team’s performance by a few runs. Especially when there are several more important variables to base decisions on.

by dbeach13 on Dec 17, 2008 5:14 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Ibanez vs. lefties

Well, if that’s the standard, you can never predict anything. Over the course of his career, it does seem that last year was an anomaly and that Ibanez is a pretty good bet to hit worse against lefties. Statistical anomalies happen but they’re not something that one should count on.

This is all just one small part of the analysis though. The much more significant problems with the signing are (1) the unnecessary loss of picks, and (2) Ibanez’s age, especially considering the length of the contract.

by taco pal on Dec 17, 2008 5:44 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

+1

agreed – the whole point is that analysts should not be talking about him being LH, but instead his age, the loss of draft picks, and the opportunity cost.

by dbeach13 on Dec 17, 2008 6:52 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

And many of the smarter ones are – unfortunately ‘smart’ and ‘analysts’ don’t seem to go together in philadelphia media…hence we get bill conlin

by jemagee on Dec 17, 2008 10:00 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

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